This is a thought piece designed as commentary to get the conversation going to get a deeper understanding of the rumblings and trends in the space even before many realise it has manifested. There has been a lot of talk about steadily declining numbers in mountain biking events and the downturn in retail. The subsequent 3minute questionnaire is intended to get an insight into what drives the decision making from a consumer behaviour point of view. Though only a few questions deep and hardly comprehensive market research or analysis. I know many of my friends either part take or have a stake in this segment hence the public approach so if you have a second to spare please do indulge or provide your insight / take on the matter. Understanding the current mountain biking event landscape South Africa is according to the general perception yet again perched precariously on the brink of another recession and is experiencing the worst brain drain since the early 90’s. Market research done by conducted by a significant role-player in the high end cycling and recreation segment shows that the high LSM group that formed their high end target audience of around 4 000 000 people nearly 1 000 000 have emigrated over the last few years alone. This combined with an all time low in investor confidence has seen consumers tighten the belt and hang on to their disposable income as contingency has seen significant decrease in spending. The cycling retail industry have widely reported year on year drops of 40% in Mountain Bike sales. This has not excluded the events in the space and most have seen participation drop with a between of 20% up to 50% year on year. This has seen their retail focus shift dramatically to bring the middle class into the sport by emphasising entry level equipment and making the sport more accessible to help build their future high end sales by growing the base which seems to be the wiser strategy to adopt. Question remains have events been resting on their laurels and have they been riding the wave in mountain biking and cycling’s sudden popularity and media attention. It is worthwhile to note that a new culture of riding trails or visiting trail parks has also contributed to the “I don’t need to race to ride” attitude. There has been significant investment over time into permanent trails open to the public where riders are able to ride in safety on enjoyable trails where previously they had to enter events to gain access to that privilege. The more expensive events have seen an even more significant drop with 28% to as much as 50% decrease in numbers. South Africa has been over saturated with events especially stage races leaving consumers with far too many events to choose from. This freedom to choose has created a culture of trying new events or new trails consumers haven’t experienced and in many cases made people hesitant to repeat events that don’t have a unique identity or change their routes or offering year on year for instance. In this economic climate many of the smaller events and even some of the larger events that don’t have scale behind them will or have already failed. Under these conditions if you can manage public perception and show strength our events will not only stand out but thrive in my opinion. Real growth in these conditions might be a pipe dream but taking market share should also be seen as a win for any organiser or brand in the industry. Other observations in mountain biking industry based on publicly available event results: Even an established stage race event like Sani2C has seen 28.8% and 20% drop in numbers where Joberg2C on the other hand has seen a significant boost in international competitors due to its unique offering (*source: results for each event that is publicly available). The ABSA Cape Epic has for the most part not seen too much of a dip in numbers but it has global acclaim and a unique appeal. The take-home here is that unless you have a unique and / or a constantly changing offering finding numbers in a very saturated market will be a challenge combined with the economic factors. Another outlier case study could be found in the Cape Trek where they completely did away with the competitive component and even prize money, they even added free wine to the mix and not only improved their rating significantly but their numbers year on year too. This short survey is a snapshot into what drives the decision making and to determine if the bubble is about to burst or if we are just riding the economic storm.... Here's the survey https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/N27DBLF
