2016 Tour of Oman (16 - 21 Feb)

Cav' · February 15, 2016

The sprinters, classics riders, time triallists and puncheurs have had their chance to shine in the Dubai Tour and the Tour of Qatar but now it is time for the climbers to come to the fore when the triptych of races in the Middle East will be brought to a close at the Tour of Oman. As the perfect end to a unique block of racing on the international calendar, the Omani race has - in just five years of existence - developed into one of the first big rendezvous for the best grand tour riders in the world and even though it may have partly lost out to the Volta ao Algarve and the Vuelta a Andalucia in the battle for the biggest stars in 2016, riders like Vincenzo Nibali, Richie Porte, Daniel Martin, Romain Bardet and Domenico Pozzovivo headline what is still a formidable line-up of climbers.

When Tour de France organizers ASO took the brave decision to team of with the Qatari authorities to create a new bike race in the Arabian desert state, few would have imagined that this would be the start of a true success story that has since turned into the most important block of racing in the early season and has prompted many of cycling stars to leave the traditional races in cycling's European heartland to instead race in warm and sunny conditions in the Middle East.

In less than a decade, the Tour of Qatar built up a reputation as the preferred preparation race for sprinters and riders who target the cobbled classics. Eager to showcase their beautiful country, the Omani authorities wanted to capitalize on that success and try a similar formula and in 2010 they joined forces with ASO to host the inaugural edition of the Tour of Oman.

With ASO backing both races, there has been a great synergy between the two races which often have invited the same teams and have had a great overlap between the riders. However, there is a great difference between the two events and we will see a completely different kind of racing than the one we have witnessed in the recent Tour of Qatar.

Qatar is a country with almost no elevation differences and the spectacle is created by the wind which often turns the race into a true war as the best classics riders battle for position in the first echelon. As opposed to this, Oman is a rather hilly country and even though many of the classics riders prefer to stay in the Middle East for another 6 days of quality racing under the sun, the final race in the Arabian block is one for the climbers.

Hence, it is no wonder that a number of the world's greatest grand tour riders have been travelling to Oman for the past few days, eager to test their condition and continue their preparation for their later goals. In just 5 years of existence, the race has built up a reputation as the preferred testing ground for the riders that will later shine in the grand tours and even though it may has lost part of its attraction value in the last two years, it is still a key event on the schedule for many riders.

It took some time for the organizers to find the right format, with the first edition being a flatter affair that was mostly determined by a time trial. Unsurprisingly, Fabian Cancellara took home the win during his reign as time trial king but for the next edition, the tables had been turned. With a summit finish on the race's landmark climb, the Green Mountain, the race had become one for the true stage racers, with Robert Gesink kicking off what was a splendid start to the year with a convincing overall victory.

By removing the time trial, the race was even more suited to climbers in 2012 when Peter Velits took a narrow win over Vincenzo Nibali. By the time the 2013 edition came around, the race had improved its reputation even further and on the hilliest course so far, Chris Froome, Alberto Contador, Vincenzo Nibali, Cadel Evans, and Joaquim Rodriguez battled it out in an exciting spectacle. In 2014 the line-up was similarly impressive when Froome, Rodriguez and Nibali again battled it out on the Green Mountain and last year many stars again visited the country but came up short against surprise winner Rafael Valls.

With the addition of the Dubai Tour, the block of racing in the Middle East has now developed into a triptych which offers 20 days of competitive action. As the combination of the three races offer a bit of everything, all riders now have an incentive to travel to the Arabian Peninsula in February. The Tour of Oman is a fitting end to what has been a fantastic month of racing in a part of the world where cycling has no long history.

Only a time trial is missing as the race otherwise offers a bit of everything. With stages for the sprinters, hilly stages for classics riders and a big mountain stage, everybody will find terrain to their liking. Hence, it is no surprise to see a pretty varied field that includes riders of all kinds. However, the race has been dominated by stage racers and in 2013 and 2014 it was by far the stage race with the strongest field in the early part of the season. Last year they lost the battle against Vuelta a Andalucia which had Chris Froome, and Alberto Contador on the start line and this year it has again lost the battle. It is a general trend as the return of the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana has made the racing block on the Iberian Peninsula more attractive and this year many have preferred to stay in Europe. This also affected the line-ups in Qatar and Dubai and will have an effect in Oman too as many teams have preferred to reduce the travel. Hence, there are far less WorldTour teams than there has usually been. However, those that are in attendance have very strong line-ups and the field is led by riders like Richie Porte, Vincenzo Nibali, Romain Bardet, Domenico Pozzovivo, Rui Costa and Danile Martin.

The race may mainly be about preparation but it would be a mistake to expect the riders to take it easy during the 6 days. In fact, the win will be fiercely contested as it was the case 12 months ago. As usual, the race was decided in the big summit finish on the Green Mountain where Rafael Valls surprisingly beat all the grand tour stars after an exciting duel with Tejay van Garderen who has to settle for third. Pre-race favourite Alejandro Valverde completed the podium. As the final GC stage was cancelled due to extreme heat and strong wind, Valls took the biggest win of his career ahead of his American and Spanish rivals. As Lotto Soudal are not in attendance, Valls won’t defend his title and as van Garderen and Valverde have both opted for the Rutal del Sol, none of the riders from last year’s podium will be in Oman in 2016.

The course

Having originally been a race for time trialists, the Tour of Oman is now one for the climbers. The time trial has been removed from the route that now consists of a mixture of flat stages for the sprinters, tricky stages for puncheurs, and real mountain stages. As the race usually has very good weather, this makes it the perfect preparation race for almost any kind of rider.

The organizers have continually made the race harder by adding more climbs but seemed to have found a preferred formula in the last few years. However, for 2016 they have upped the level of difficulty a further notch and with two summit finishes and a tougher finale on the Green Mountain, this year’s edition will be the hardest in the short history of the race

In the past, the race has usually had three opportunities for the sprinters. This year the fast finishers will only get a chance to shine twice. The opening stage is one for the punchy classics riders but half of the stages can potentially change the GC. There will be brand new summit finish on stage 2 and the penultimate stage will be see the riders tackle a very tough circuit that has produced spectacular racing in the past. The decisive stage, however, is the big summit finish on the Green Mountain which has now become a classic and one of the most anticipated races in February and now has been made even harder. In that sense, the race has a bit of everything and it is no wonder that it is able to attract riders of all types who will all find something to their linking while also getting the chance to prepare for major events I good weather.

image: http://www.procyclingstats.com/uploads/uploads00001/original/Final_GC-1453460719.jpg

http://www.procyclingstats.com/uploads/uploads00001/original/Final_GC-1453460719.jpg

Stage 1:

The race has traditionally kicked off with a stage for the sprinters but for 2016, the organizers have changed the script. The stage is very similar to the one that opened last year’s race and has an almost identical profile. Instead, the puncheurs and classics riders will get a chance to go for the leader’s jersey on the opening day as the riders will face the well-known finale in Al Bustan that has produced some exciting racing in the three most recent editions of the race.

At 145.5km, the stage is a relatively short one which brings the riders from the Oman Exhibition Centre to Al Bustan. The first part of the stage isn’t too exciting though as the riders will head from the start of the outskirts of the capital of Muscat into the desert where they will head along flat or slightly ascending roads in a sinuous system that will see them travel back and forth along the same road and do two U-turns. Then they will head back towards the capital while contesting the first intermediate sprint at the 75km mark.

Having returned to Muscat, the riders will follow flat roads on the outskirts of the city and hit the course that was used for the second stage of last year’s race. This is where the exciting part starts as the riders will head straight through the city to make a small visit to the climbs that are located on the eastern outskirts of the city before they turn around to head back to the finish in Al Bustan just east of the capital

The first challenge comes at the 122.5km mark where the riders will climb the short, steep 800m climb of Al Hamriya whose average gradient of 9.8% will tire out the riders legs. From there it is a gradual downhill down towards the sea where the final intermediate sprint is located with 9.5km to go. Having turned around to head back towards the city centre, it is time for the day's major challenge, the 1.4km climb of Al Jissah that has an average gradient of 9% and whose top is located just 5.5km from the finish. It is followed by a fast descent that continues all the way to the 1.5km to go mark where the road flattens. 900km from the finish, the riders hit the coastal road when they go left in a roundabout. In 2014 the riders went over a small climb but last year and in 2016 the stage has been shortened by about 1km, meaning that the finish line now comes at the bottom of that small ascent.

In 2013, the stage saw Team Sky whittle down the peloton on the first of the climbs in the finale, providing a launch pad for Rinaldo Nocentini and Alberto Contador who attacked on the second one. The break didn't have any success but the fierce pace whittled down the peloton to just around 50 riders who were set to contest the win in a sprint. With limited domestique resources, however, no one took control, leading to an attack from Martin Elmiger, Vincenzo Nibali, and Tony Gallopin on the final small rise inside the final 2km. Peter Sagan bridged across and instead of waiting for the final sprint, he launched an immediate attack to continue past his rivals, taking a beautiful solo win and the leader's jersey in the process.

In 2014 the peloton was again whittled down on the two climbs but as the riders faced a strong headwind on the final climb, some of the sprinters survived the climb. Meanwhile, Chris Froome, Peter Sagan, Zdenek Stybar and Fabian Cancellara launched a strong attack but they were caught inside the final kilometre. Hence, it came down to a sprint from a reduced peloton where André Greipel made use of his fast legs to beat Sagan and Nacer Bouhanni.

Last year some of the GC riders attacked on the final climb and the aggression created a 19-rider front group that sprinted for the win. Sagan was the big favourite but he had to settle for fifth as Fabian Cancellara edged out Alejandro Valverde and Greg Van Avermaet, with the Slovakian having to settle for fifth.

This stage has two potential outcomes as it may both be decided in a sprint from a reduced bunch or by a strong breakaway that escapes on the final climb. With the finish line coming 1km closer to the top of the ascent than it did in the first two editions, there’s only a 900m flat section in the finale, meaning that the attackers will have a bigger chance. Much will depend on the wind as a headwind will favour the peloton but there is a chance that some strong climbers may use this stage to gain a few seconds on their rivals already on the first day of the race.

image: http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TOO/2016/100/CARTE.jpg

http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TOO/2016/100/CARTE.jpg

image: http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TOO/2016/100/PROFIL.png

http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TOO/2016/100/PROFIL.png

Stage 2:

In the past, the first half of the race has always been a bit of a waiting game for the GC riders who have been trying to save energy for the big battle on the Green Mountain. This time they have to be on their toes right from the start as the tricky first stage is followed by a first big climbing battle in a new summit finish on the second day.

The 162km stage brings the riders from the start at the Omantel Head Office on the western outskirts of Muscat through mostly flat terrain to the new summit finish in Quriyat in the much hiller area east of the capital. From the start, flat roads lead them to the capital which they will pass through before heading into the hills. The first challenge is the Bousher al Amerat climb (3.4km, 8.8%) that has often been tackled in the Ministry of Housing stage and will again play a key role in the penultimate stage of this year’s race. The summit comes at the 33km mark and then it is back into flat terrain as the riders will continue their eastern journey.

The first intermediate sprint comes at the 81km mark just before the feed zone and then the riders descend back towards the coast where the terrain gets slightly more undulating. With around 30km to go, they will turn around to head back towards the finishing city of Quriyat before the final intermediate sprint comes with 22.5km to go.

The riders will reach Quiryat with 7.5km but this time they won’t finish in the city as they have done in the past. Instead, they will follow flat roads into the nearby hills where the race will end at the top of a tough climb that averages 6.5% over 2.8km. It includes two hairpin bends close to the flamme rouge and then the road bends gradually to the left before the riders get to the 100m finishing straight.

The final climb is not very steep and as there are no previous difficulties, the time gaps will be small. Furthermore, it’s a relatively short climb that is better suited to puncheurs than to real climbers. Hence, the riders that battled for victory on the opening stage may fancy their chances for another stage win and a longer stint in the leader’s jersey. However, the GC riders will have to be on their toes as this stage will produce the first time gaps and give an indication of who’ll be able to win the 2016 Tour of Oman.

Quriyat has hosted one stage finish in the past but when the race visited the city in 2014, there was no summit finish. Instead, it was a flat finale that allowed Alexander Kristoff to take a bunch sprint win ahead of Leigh Howard and Tom Boonen.

image: http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TOO/2016/200/CARTE.jpg

http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TOO/2016/200/CARTE.jpg

Stage 3:

The sprinters have usually had their say on three stages of the Omani race but this year their number of opportunities has been reduced to two. Furthermore, they will have no chance to get the leader’s jersey as they will have to wait until the third day before they get their chance. However, they will lick their lips in anticipation of stage 3 which is the easiest of the race.

The 176.5kmkm stage starts at Al Sawadi Beach and brings the riders to a finish at Naseem Park just a few kilometres further down the coast. It is very similar to previous sprint stages in the race as it consists of a long uphill drag into the desert and a downhill run back to the coast. After a short flat section along the coast, the riders turn inlands and climb along gradually ascending roads to the highest point of the stage which comes at the 88.5km at the feed zone. Seven kilometres earlier, the first intermediate sprint is located.

Having refueled, the riders will turn around and head along gradually descending roads back towards the coast. The highlight will be the final intermediate sprint which comes with 27.5km to go. The road flattens inside the final 10km when the riders have reached the coast. With 6km to go, they will take a U-turn as they travel along a big highway which they will leave at a winding left-hand turn with 2.5km to go. That leads them onto the 2km finishing straight which is on an 8m wide, completely flat road.

With no categorized climbs and plenty of flat roads, this stage has all the ingredients of a traditional sprint stage. The sprinters won’t have many opportunities in this year’s race so they have to grab their chances whenever they get one. They have to be attentive in the desert where the wind can potentially play a role but it has rarely done any damage in Oman. Unless this changes for the 2016 edition, this stage should be decided in a big bunch sprint.

Naseem Park hosted the finish of the opening stage in 2014 when André Greipel rode himself into the leader’s jersey by taking the stage win ahead of Leigh Howard and Nicola Ruffoni.

image: http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TOO/2016/300/CARTE.jpg

http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TOO/2016/300/CARTE.jpg

Stage 4:

Since the second edition in 2011, the Green Mountain, or Jabal al Akhdar, has played host to the finish of the queen stage of the race and been the scene of the season's first big mountain battle between some of the best grand tour riders in the world. With the stage having been a huge success in the past editions, the organizers have found little reason to remove the race's landmark climb and it will again be the scene of the queen stage. Like last year, the key stage comes on stage 4 after it has previously been held on the penultimate day but this year the organizers have made the stage even tougher as they will now go further up the mountain, making the brutally steep climb even longer.

Apart from the change in the finale, the stage is almost identical with the one that has been used in the previous editions and it is only the starting point and the first part that vary a bit. This year the distance has been shortened a bit as the riders will cover a total of 177km from the start at Knowledge Oasis Muscat until they reach the top of the Green Mountain. Right from the start, they will head into the desert, approaching the mighty climb which will gradually become visible in the horizon.

In the first part, the roads are gradually ascending and already after 15km they will hit the course of last year’s stage from where there are no changes until the riders get to the very finale. They will continue in a southerly direction as they approach the mountains, following a long, gradual uphill drag that will not be too challenging. They will reach a temporary top before heading down to Al Jarda where they will turn right and contest the first intermediate sprint after 82.5km of racing.

From there, they will follow rolling roads for the next 86km as they travel in a predominantly westerly direction until they reach the site of the second intermediate sprint in Birkat Al Mouz. From there, only 13.5km remain but most of them are simply brutal.

The riders will start to climb immediately after turning right to head north out of the city but the first 5.8km will be easy as the gradients are very mellow. However, all hell breaks loose when the riders hit the bottom of the Green Mountain. It has a length of just 7.5km but with an average gradient of 10.7%, it is a real leg breaker. Last year they only climbed 5.8km at an average of 10.5% but 1800 even steeper metres have been added.

The first two kilometres have average gradients of 11.4% and 12.8% respectively but then there is a bit of a respite with a 5.5% section. It is only a chance to breathe before the brutal finale. The final 4km average 11.9%, 12.4%, 11.9% and 13% respectively, making it one for the true climbers. There are four hairpin turns inside the final 2km before a light bend leads onto the 200m finishing straight.

The finish on the Green Mountain made its debut in 2011 when Robert Gesink put a massive 47 seconds into his nearest rival, Edvald Boasson Hagen. One year later, Vincenzo Nibali beat Peter Velits to move to within one second of the overall lead. In 2013, the climb was the scene of a thrilling battle between Cadel Evans, Alberto Contador, Chris Froome, and Joaquim Rodriguez, with lots of attacks and riders constantly dropping off before getting back to the front. Having already lost time on the previous stages, Rodriguez exploited the tactical face-off between his competitors to sneak away for the win while Froome accelerated inside the final kilometre to take second and the overall lead. In 2014, Team Sky used an unusual tactic by sending Sergio Henao on the attack and when he was caught, Froome delivered a demonstration of force to take an impressive solo win. Last year it came down to a final battle between Rafael Valls and Tejay van Garderen and surprisingly the Spaniard turned out to be the strongest.

With the field containing many of the world's best grand tour riders, the Green Mountain may again give the first indication of who's hot and who's not in 2016 and it will undoubtedly be the key point in determining the winner of the Tour of Oman. An early break will have no chance in this stage and all the great climbers are set to battle it out for the stage win on the brutally steep slopes. With the addition of 1800m of very steep climbing, the time gaps will be even bigger than they have been in the past and this will make the stage even more important than it has been in the past. There may be more climbing in the other stages too but there is a very big chance that the winner of stage 4 will also be the overall victor a few days later in Muscat.

image: http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TOO/2016/400/CARTE.jpg

http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TOO/2016/400/CARTE.jpg

image: http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TOO/2016/400/PROFIL.png

http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TOO/2016/400/PROFIL.png

Stage 5:

In 2013, the organizers introduced another crucial stage that finished with several passages of the tough Bousher al Amerat climb before it descended back to a finish in front of the Ministry of Housing. The stage produced some very exciting racing and in 2014 a slightly changed version of the stage was back on the course. As it again delivered a fantastic race, the exact same finale was set to feature on the penultimate day of the race but wind and heat forced the organizers to cancel it due to a rider protest. That hasn’t prevented them from including it in the 2016 edition too, offering the climbers a final chance to change the GC on the eve of the final sprint stage.

The stage will bring the riders over just 119.5km from coastal Yiti (Al Sifah) just a few kilometres east of Muscat to a new finish at the Ministry of Tourism on the hilly eastern outskirts of the capital. From the start, they will travel along lumpy coastal roads as they approach Muscat and they will contest the first intermediate sprint after 29km of racing.

The riders will get an early chance to test their climbing legs when they will tackle the Al Jissah climb (1.4km, 8.9%) after 33km of racing. For some it will be a welcome return as it was the climb that featured in the finale of stage 1. Just seven kilometres later, they will reach the top of the Al Wadi Al Kabir climb (1.9km, 6.3%) and then it is back onto flat roads as they enter the capital to do a small circuit in the city.

The riders will now travel along flat roads to the suburb of Al Amerat and this is where the finale starts when the riders hit the hilly circuit with the Bousher al Amerat climb. First they will go up the climb from its easy side where it averages 6.8% over 3.2km. From there they will descend to Muscat from where they will turn around to do a full lap of the 29.5km circuit which is very straightforward. The first 3.4km consist of the climb of Bousher Alamrat from its steepest side where ir has an average gradient of 8.8% and is followed by a short descent and a small flat stretch. Then they do a U-turn and head back up the climb from its easier side again. There will be KOM points on offer at the first two passages of the climb while the final intermediate sprint is located at the top after the final passage.

From the top of the final climb, 13.5km remain. They consist of the final downhill section of the circuit after which the riders continue back towards the city and the finish at the Ministry of Tourism. There will be a number of sweeping bends inside the final 5km which are completely flat until the riders get to two sharp left-hand turns inside the final kilometre. The finishing straight is 500m long and 8m wide.

Compared to the 2014 and 2015 editions of this stage, the riders will only do the climb thrice like they did in 2013. Furthermore, the finish has been moved to the Ministry of Tourism which has increased the distance from the top of the final climb to the finish by one kilometre.

In 2013, the riders tackled the same number of climbs in the finale, meaning that they did the easy side twice and the hard one once. On that occasion, a true spectacle unfolded, with Sky riding tempo to whittle down the group the first time up the climb. On the steep ascent, Vincenzo Nibali attacked but he was quickly passed by Alberto Contador. The Spaniard crested the summit with a gap but Richie Porte brought him back in time for the final climb to start. At that point, the lead group only contained 16 riders and it split to pieces when Contador attacked on the final ascent. Cadel Evans tried to join him but was passed by Chris Froome and Joaquim Rodriguez who bridged the gap. The trio managed to stay away to the finish, with Froome winning the sprint to increase his overall lead, while Daryl Impey won the sprint for 4th from a 7-rider group that lost 4 seconds.

In 2014 Chris Froome again made a big attack on the final climb and initially only Rigoberto Uran could match him. However, a strong headwind made it impossible to stay away and instead Uran, Vincenzo Nibali and Peter Sagan escaped on the descent. The trio managed to stay away and it was Sagan who won the sprint to take his first win of the year. Last year’s stage was cancelled.

History shows that the climb is hard enough for the GC riders to make a difference and as this is the final chance for them to change things ahead of the final sprint stage, we can expect another GC battle. To make a difference, the stage has to be made hard right from the bottom of the first climb and then it is possible to gain time in the overall standings. However, much will depend on the wind in the final, flat part of the stage and if there’s a headwind, we are more likely to get a sprint from a reduced group which could open the door for some of the classics riders. In any case, this is the day that will finally decide the winner of the 2016 Tour of Oman.

image: http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TOO/2016/500/CARTE.jpg

http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TOO/2016/500/CARTE.jpg

Stage 6:

Like most other national tours, the Tour of Oman has usually ended with a flat stage for the sprinters in the country's capital and the 2016 edition won't change this tradition. However, the circuit on the Matrah Corniche in the centre of Muscat is not as easy as it is in other stage races and as the stage includes some climbing earlier in the stage, the sprinters will have to dig deep a bit deeper to make sure that they are still in contention in the end.

The 130.5km stage starts at the Wave Muscat just west of Muscat and brings the riders to a finish on a circuit on the Matrah Corniche in the city centre. It is almost identical to last year’s final stage as there have only been very few modifications and a new starting point. The number of laps on the final circuit has been increased from two to three and the distanced has been reduced by 3km.

After the start, the riders will follow the coast for a few kilometres. In the city of Al Seeb, they will head inlands along flat roads until they hit the Muscat Express Road that they will follow all the way to the capital. This section is completely flat too.

Instead of continuing all the way to the city centre, the riders will do a small loop on the hilly eastern outskirts of the capital. First they will go up the Al Hamriyah climb after 78.5km of racing and then take the long, gradual descent. Having reached Al Jissah at the 92km mark, they will contest the first intermediate sprint before turning around to head back towards the city. They will now go up the Al Jissah climb (1.4km, 9%) which also featured in the finale of stage 1 and in stage 5 before they descend to the coastal road that they will follow until they hit the Matrah Corniche.

With 22km to do, the riders will cross the finish line for the first time. They will now do two laps of the well-known 7.5km finishing circuit. It follows the coastal road for most of the time and only makes a small digression when it makes small loop before getting back to the seafront. The circuit is almost completely flat but has a very small climb 3.5km from the finish that may serve as the launch pad for a late attack. The riders hit the coastal road shortly before the 2km to go banner and from there they will follow the flat, slightly winding 8m wide road all the way to the finish, with the line coming into sight when the road makes its final slight bend 210m from the end of the race.

The first year the race ended with a time trial but the next four years, the race has ended with a big bunch sprint at the Corniche. Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, Nacer Bouhanni and André Greipel came out on top but last year the sprinters were denied. Their teams failed to organize a chase in time after some sprinters had been dropped on the climbs and this allowed Matthias Brändle to take a surprise win from a breakaway after having attacked on the climb on the final circuit. This year the sprinters have only had one chance so they are unlikely to make a similar mistake and we can expect a bunch sprint in Muscat while the overall leader hopes to stay safe before being crowned as the winner of the 7th Tour of Oman.

image: http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TOO/2016/600/CARTE.jpg

http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TOO/2016/600/CARTE.jpg

image: http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TOO/2016/600/PROFIL.png

http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TOO/2016/600/PROFIL.png

The favourites

The Tour of Oman is in fierce competition with the Volta ao Algarve, Vuelta a Andalucia, and the Tour du Haut-Var which both run at the same time as the Middle East race. Compared to 2013 when everybody seemed to be heading to the sultanate for what was an almost all-inclusive rendezvous of grand tour stars, the best riders distributed themselves a bit more evenly last year but again the Omani race was the clear winner. The guarantee for optimal weather conditions and the good organization certainly played a role and even though the time trial specialists will always prefer Algarve or Andalucia over Oman, the climbers cannot find a better place to spend this week in February.

Nonetheless, the Omani organizers lost the battle in 2015 and things have only become worse in 2016 when the return of Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana has made the Iberian Peninsula more attractive. However, it has mainly had an impact on the number of WorldTour teams which has been significantly reduced as the line-ups in Oman are still very strong. This year the grand tour stars are spread pretty evenly between the races but if one had to pick a winner, it is probably the Volta ao Algarve which will field a star-studded line-up led by grand tour winners Alberto Contador and Fabio Aru.

That doesn’t take anything away from the Tour of Oman which can still present the 2014 Tour de France champion Vincenzo Nibali in addition to the likes of Richie Porte, Dan Martin, Rui Costa, Romain Bardet and Domenico Pozzovivo. As there is no Chris Froome or Alberto Contador in this year’s race, the playing field is a lot more level and the race more unpredictable. If one adds that the main contenders have done very little racing, it only adds to the excitement and uncertainty about the condition of the star riders.

While the sprinters look forward to the chance to shine on stages 3 and 6 and the punchuers are will battle for victory in stage 1, the GC will probably come down to the 2nd, 4th and 5th stage. The opening stage may offer a chance to steal a few seconds – and take a few bonus seconds too – but the first big battle will come on stage 2 where the first real time gaps will be created. However, the final climb is more for punchy classics riders and the differences will be small. Hence, it will still be a very close battle by the time we get to stages 4 and 5.

It is definitely a wise decision for the organizers to have swapped the order of the two key stages compared to 2014. That year most riders rode conservatively on the Boushar Alamrat climb as they waited for the Green Mountain. This year the big battle comes first and so more riders will have something to gain by going on the attack in stage 5. In 2013, that stage proved to be a very hard affair and we could easily see the GC get shaken up on the penultimate day. With a flat finish, a good climber with a fast sprint may even pick up a few bonus seconds.

In any case, this race is going to be won by a climber and there is no doubt that the Green Mountain stage will be by far the most important. It’s a brutally steep climb and with the addition of another 1800m of very steep climbing, the time gaps will be even bigger than they have been in the past. This is a climb that suits the lightweight guys and real climbers and it is very likely that the winner here will also be the overall victor. Time differences in stages 2 and 5 can still come into play as can bonus seconds but this is a race that will be decided by climbing legs. However, one always has to be attentive in the flat stages as the wind may come into play and a strong team for those conditions could become a factor.

BMC had a very successful Tour of Qatar where they claimed third place with Greg Van Avermaet and they will try to carry the momentum into Oman. They have a fantastic chance to do better in the hills of the sultanate as they have brought in Richie Porte to lead the team.

Porte was actually targeting a slow start to the season as he was aiming to be fresher for the Tour de France. Hence, he had done very little training before the Tour Down Under and he went onto that race with no expectations. However, he surprised by being much stronger than expected and at the end of the week he had both won the queen stage and taken second overall.

That result was obtained at a time when he described himself as not being race condition and he even claimed to have felt better on Willunga Hill than he did 12 months ago. That’s just another confirmation of his status as one of the best climbers in the world and since his last race, his condition will only have improved. In general, he has been very hard to beat in the months of January, February and March and it is no coincidence that he has won Paris-Nice twice and Volta ao Algarve once.

Porte hasn’t raced since Down Under but as he is building form for Paris-Nice, there is little doubt that he is riding at a high level. This race suits him pretty well as he is one of the two best climbers in the race. He has proved that he can do well on very steep gradients so the Green Mountain is a good climb for him and he has the punch to do well on stages 2 and 5 too. Furthermore, his strong classics team means that he won’t get dropped in the crosswinds.

We doubt that anyone will be able to match Porte on the climbs but he has one weakness: there are no other climbers in his team. That won’t make a difference in stages 2 and 4 but it could be crucial if he gets isolated in stage 5 after the first two passages of the climb. This is probably where Porte can be beaten. If his rivals fail to isolate them there, we expect a comfortable victory for the Australian.

The man that can destroy the party is Vincenzo Nibali. After two disastrous spring seasons, he seems to be at a much higher level in 2016. He rode pretty well in San Luis where he worked for teammate Miguel Angel Lopez after he had lost time due to illness in the first summit finish. It is no secret that he aims for a much better start to the year and he seems to be on track for great things.

On paper, Nibali is the only climber that can match Porte in this race. He doesn’t have the punch for stage 2 but should be able to stay with the best. However, he is strong on steep climbs and so the Green Mountain suits him well. Furthermore, he is supported by a strong team that also includes Michele Scarponi and Jakob Fuglsang. That will give them cards to play and it will be hard for Porte to control the aggressive Astana trio in stage 5. Everybody know that Nibali is a very aggressive rider and that could be what gives him the overall victory in this race.

Ag2r have two potential winners of this race but their best card is probably Domenico Pozzovivo. The Italian is one of the most consistent riders in the peloton and he isone of the most underrated in the peloton. In fact he finished in the top 10 in every race he finished in 2014 and 2015 until he was a surprisingly poor 11th in the Vuelta – if you forget about the races he did at the end of the 2014 when he had just broken his legs. That shows an impressive reliability in both stage and one-day races and makes Pozzovivo one of the sure cards to play for Ag2r.

Unfortunately, it looks like his Giro crash has hampered him quite a bit as he failed to reach his usual level last autumn. He showed signs of improvement at the Tour Down Under where he was one of the strongest. He was not back at this usual level but we expect him to get there and this race could be the place to prove it. It suits him a lot better than the race Down Under as he excels on the steepest gradients. The Green Mountain is tailor-made for him and as the race will probably be decided there, he will be one of the obvious favourites.

On paper, his teammate Romain Bardet is also an excellent contender for the race. He is clearly one of the best climbers in the race and with no time trial, the course suits him down to the ground. He is punchy enough to do well on stages 2 and 5 and he is good on steep gradients too. As he will join forces with Pozzovivo, Ag2r will have cards to play and this will be important in stage 5 where team tactics can come into play. Unfortunately, he was not very good at his season debut in Marseille where he was a bit frustrated not to have been able to follow Thibaut Pinot. This indicates that his form is not optimal yet but there is little doubt that he will be much stronger here.

As said, Nibali is not the only Astana card. Jakob Fuglsang has traditionally been very strong at the start of the year and it is no coincidence that he has often been a contender in Paris-Nice. He is making his season debut in Oman so he has not proved any kind of condition yet but we doubt that he will fail. The Green Mountain could be a bit too steep to his liking but he is great at gauging his effort which is important on such a tough ascent. Furthermore, condition is the most important thing at this time of the year and here the Dane is usually very reliable.

We are curious to see how Daniel Martin will do in this race. He won a stage of the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana, proving that he is much stronger than he has usually been at this time of year. However, he suffered in the queen stage where it was evident that he is still far from his best as that stage suited him down to the ground. The Tour of Oman is tailor-made for him as there is no time trial and a very steep climb which is great for him. There are a few punchy stages too where sprinting skills can come into play and this may allow him to pick up a few bonus seconds. If he had been in top condition, he would have been one of the biggest favourites but we doubt that he has the form to be a real contender for victory.

Another interesting contender is Jurgen Van den Broeck who is lining up for his first race in Katusha colours. It’s time for confirmation for the Belgian who has not been at his best since he rode to a strong third place in the 2014 Criterium du Dauphiné. However, he claims that his numbers prove that he can still be up there with the best and based on his pre-season interviews, he is fired up for his new start. He has often been riding very strongly in February and this year he will have plenty of motivation. It remains to be seen if he can return to his former level but if he can, he will be one of the strongest.

Rui Costa is one of the most consistent riders in the peloton and is almost guaranteed to finish in the top 10. Last year he had a bad day in stage 2 and so dropped out of GC contention but he was sixth on the queen stage, proving that he can do well on the Green Mountain. The punchy climbs in stages 2 and 5 are really good for him but the Green Mountain is probably too steep for him to win. Nonetheless, we can expect another solid showing from the former world champion.

Gianluca Brambilla will be the second Etixx-QuickStep card. The Italian won a race in the Challenge Mallorca to confirm the progression he showed at the end of the 2015 season. He will never become a big winner but there is little doubt that he has the potential to do well in a race like this. He is obviously in great form and his fast sprint makes him suited to stages 1, 2 and 5. He is probably not climbing good enough to be up there with the best on the Green Mountain though.

Tom Dumoulin is making his season debut in Oman but this race doesn’t really suit him. There is no time trial and the Green Mountain should be too steep for him. On the other hand, he is always riding at a high level and even though he has not been racing yet, he is probably already very good. He claims to have had a great January and a less good February but the legs are apparently good. On paper, the gradients are too tough for him but we said the same a few months ago at the Vuelta…

Eduardo Sepulveda also deserves a mention. The Argentinean has always been a solid climber but he has been unable to match the best. However, he claimed an impressive solo win in the Tour de San Luis and seems to have stepped up his level. He dropped to second later in the race though and there is a vast difference between the race in San Luis and the more competitive races later in the season. This is a chance to prove that he has really stepped up his game and it will be interesting to gauge against this kind of stiff competition.