Paris - Nice 2016

Stage 1 proved that you can never underestimate a flat stage of Paris-Nice and the peloton can expect more nervousness and stress on a very cold second stage. However, less wind should set the scene for a calmer stage which should be decided in a big bunch sprint.

The course

After the stressful opener, the second stage is a much more traditional early stage in Paris-Nice and the sprinters will be keen to make the most of their opportunities in the first part of the race which is again tailor-made for them. The second day should be one for the fast finishers as the riders continue their journey through the flatlands to get closer to the sun but as always they will have to be attentive in the wind.

At 213.5km, it is an unusually long Paris-Nice stage that will bring the riders from Contres to Commentry. It serves its usual purpose of bringing the riders closer to the sun and so they will travel in a southeasterly direction all day. It’s a completely flat part of France and so the only noteworthy point in the first part of the race will be the intermediate sprint at the 25km mark.

As the riders approach the finishing city, they will slightly deviate from the direct route to tackle the category 3 climb of Cote d’Estivareilles (1.7km, 6.2%) with 49.5km to go. Then it is back into flat terrain as they zigzag their way through the area close to the finishing city before entering the finishing circuit with 23.5km to go. 6.5km later they will cross the line for the first time to contest the final intermediate sprint. The final part if made up of one lap of the 17km circuit that has a small climb in the early part but is mainly flat.

The final 5km are mainly made up of a long straight road before two roundabouts lead to a sharp turn with 1.7km to go. The final challenge is a right-hand turn in a roundabout just 500m from the line which is on a 6m wide road. The final 4km are very slightly ascending, with the final kilometre averaging 1.3%.

Commentry has not hosted a stage finish for more than a decade.

The weather

The cold weather and the snow was one of the big talking point of the opening stage and unfortunately it is likely to be more of the same tomorrow. It will be a cloudy day with a maximum temperature of 4 degrees. There is a 25% chance that the riders will face some snow or rain.

The bright point is the fact that there won’t be much wind as it will just be a light breeze from a northwesterly direction and it will even abate a bit as they approach the finish. This means that it will be a tailwind all day until they approach the climb where there’s a short cross-tailwind section. Then it’s back into a tailwind until they hit the circuit where the wind will be coming from all directions. It will be a crosswind for the final 5km until the riders turn into a tailwind with 500m to go.

image: http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/PNC/2016/200/CARTE.jpg

http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/PNC/2016/200/CARTE.jpg

image: http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/PNC/2016/200/PROFIL.png

http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/PNC/2016/200/PROFIL.png

image: http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/PNC/2016/200/PROFILKMS.jpg

http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/PNC/2016/200/PROFILKMS.jpg

The favourites

Everybody knows that you can never underestimate a stage in the first week of Paris-Nice. That was again evident in today’s stage. The drama was expected to come of the gravel roads but it happened much earlier when Sky split the field in the crosswinds. For a brief moment, the situation was dangerous for GC contenders like Rui Costa, Luis Leon Sanchez, Lieuwe Westra, Diego Rosa, Ilnur Zakarin and Simon Spilak. In the end, most of them kept their GC options alive and only Spilak and Jesus Herrada are now out of contention as they both punctured in the finale.

At the same time, we got a small hint of who’s going well in this race. Michael Matthews added to his lead by picking up two bonus seconds and remains an outsider for overall victory. Geraint Thomas and Tom Dumoulin both looked strong on the gravel roads as did Ion Izagirre and Tony Gallopin who went on the attack. At the same time, it is important to note that Richie Porte now claims that his form is where it needs to be even though it was an embarrassing performance of BMC as the Australian was isolated in the first echelon.

Today’s drama will create more nervousness for tomorrow’s stage but the wind will be less strong and it will mostly be a tailwind. There will be a short crosswind section just before the climb where the peloton will fight for position but it is very unlikely that we will get any splits in this stage. It looks like we will have a pretty straightforward sprint stage but it will still be a stressful day.

Unfortunately, it will again be very cold and with a 25% chance of snow, it will be interesting to see if the commissaires will take action. Today Tom Boonen complained about the fact that the new Extreme Weather Protocol wasn’t applied.

With little wind, we can expect the break to get clear right from the gun and we can expect it to include riders from Delko Marseille, Fortuneo-Vital Concept and Direct Energie. Orica-GreenEDGE will control things and will get some help from Etixx-QuickStep and maybe also Katusha. FDJ may also feel obliged to come to the fore after they won today’s stage. It should be enough to bring the break back but at least they should be able to go for the KOM point and so equal Ion Izagirre’s tally of points.

In the finale, it will be very stressful and again we have a late intermediate sprint. Today Michael Matthews decided to contest it and he will probably do so again as he knows that it is hard to finish in the top 3 in this kind of stage for pure sprinters. Geraint Thomas and Alberto Contador will be up for the challenge again and it would be stupid of fast guys like Tom Dumoulin and Tony Gallopin not to give it a try too.

In the end, we will have a full bunch sprint. The finale is pretty straightforward as the main challenged are a few roundabouts. However, it will still be important to be in a good position in the final roundabout with 500m to go as the road is narrow and there won’t be much room to pass. It’s a tailwind sprint so it will be difficult to come from behind so positioning and lead-out will be important. The finishing straight is a bit uphill but it won’t play much of a role.

Today Marcel Kittel looked strong in the crosswinds but the finale was a bit too tough for him. Tomorrow there won’t be similar challenges and with little wind, the riders are likely to be a lot fresher at the finish. This should play into the hands of the strong German who is the fastest rider in this race.

Etixx-QuickStep showed that they have a very strong team for the flats and they clearly have one of the best trains here. Maes, Terpstra, Boonen and Sabatini all have the speed to keep Kittel in a good position. He has won much harder sprints than this one which is slightly uphill so the gradient won’t be a problem. This stage should be one for Kittel to win.

His big rival will be Alexander Kristoff. The Norwegian beat Cavendish fair and square in Qatar and seems to be faster than ever. Today he was inattentive in the crosswinds as he was taking off clothes when the attack was launched and then he suffered a puncture in the finale. However, he claimed that his legs are good and we know that his form is great.

Kristoff is not as fast as Kittel but he has one big advantage: Jacopo Guarnieri. The Italian has been dominating the lead-outs for more than a year. They don’t have their entire train here but if Guarnieri can drop Kristoff off on the front, it won’t be easy to come around him.

Nacer Bouhanni showed his good condition in today’s stage. He was always up there in the first positions and his team was strong to be there in the end and bring Edward Theuns back. However, they could not organize a lead-out and Bouhanni was boxed in by Demare in the sprint. Tomorrow he can expect to have his full train at his disposal and on paper they are one of the best. Bouhanni is fast enough to beat almost everybody and with a great train and a good position, he can win this stage.

André Greipel missed the split in today’s stage but returned to the peloton in time for the finale. Unfortunately, he was dropped on the final gravel section which was no big surprise as he is just coming back from a broken rib. His form is not at 100% but he should be there at the end of what is likely to be an easy stage. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have his train here and he is not great in the fight for position. Without much team support, it will be hard for him to win even though he is one of the two fastest riders here.

Wouter Wippert was in a great position for today’s sprint but ran out of legs at the end of a very hard stage. Tomorrow the stage will be much easier which should suit the fast Dutchman. He has the speed to challenge almost everybody but he doesn’t have the best train. On the other hand, he has proved that he can position himself well and he should be a contender here.

Arnaud Demare proved that he still has the speed to win the big races. However, no one has ever questioned his seed. The main problem for the Frenchman has been the positioning and it almost cost him the win in today’s stage too. However, he benefited from a smaller field. Tomorrow the fight for position will be much bigger and so we doubt that he will be in a position to repeat the result.

Trek were close to victory with Edward Theuns in today’s stage. Tomorrow they should again be in the mix as they have a formidable team of fast guys. Theuns and Niccolo Bonifazio can both be given the chance in the sprint but we expect it to be a stage for the Italian. Unfortunately, none of them are fast enough to challenge the best but a good lead-out can take them far.

This is not a sprint for Michael Matthews as it is way too easy. He doesn’t have the speed to win but he can still count on a formidable train of fast guys. It won’t be a surprise if Orica-GreenEDGE can challenge the best and so Matthews can pick up bonus seconds by sprinting onto the podium.

Finally, we will point to Juan Jose Lobato. The Spaniard is famously known for his poor positioning but he is still very fast. The most likely scenario is that he will miss out on the top 10 but if he can finally get a decent spot in the roundabout, he has the speed to be up there.

Cav' · March 8, 2016

Pics of stage 1:

Cav' · March 8, 2016

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Cav' · March 8, 2016

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Cav' · March 8, 2016

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Cav' · March 8, 2016

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Cav' · March 8, 2016

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Cav' · March 8, 2016

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Cav' · March 8, 2016

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Cav' · March 8, 2016

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Cav' · March 8, 2016

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Cav' · March 8, 2016

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Cav' · March 8, 2016

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Cav' · March 8, 2016

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Paris - Nice 2016

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