2016 Ruta Del Sol

[Cav']

Vuelta a Andalucia, stage 3:

The course:

If stage 2 was too hard for them, the sprinters will get a final chance to potentially show their fast speed before the GC battle will dominate the weekend. Stage 3 barely offers any flat roads but the climbing is not too severe and they will definitely try to hang on on each of the four climbs, hoping to still be in contention for the flat finale.

 

At 157.9km, stage 3 is relatively short and brings the riders from Monachil to Padul. Those two cities are located very close to each other and most of the stage is made up of a short journey into the hills on their western outskirts. The first part is almost completely flat but leads to a hillier section with the category 2 Alto del Lucero (8.6km, 3.0%) and the category 3 Alto de los Bermejales (5.4km, 3.0%) at the 36.1km and 48.2km respectively.

 

After the intermediate sprint at the 54.8km mark which is held in a flatter part of the course, the riders will turn around and go back towards Padua by tackling the category 2 Puerto del Legionario (10.9km, 3.2%). The summit is located 65.7km from the finish and from here the riders will take a gradual descent to the finish line which they will cross for the first time with 43.9km to go.

 

The final part of the stage will see the riders tackle a circuit on the southeastern outskirts of Padua. The first part if flat or descending and leads to the category 2 Puerto del Valle (7.6km, 4%). The summit comes 15.1km from the finish from where the riders will follow flat road back to Padua. The finale is relatively uncomplicated as the riders will follow a long straight road until they make a 60-degree turn with 2.1km to go. Inside the final kilometre, there’s a sharp turn with 700m to go and a slight bend 500m from the line. The penultimate kilometre is slightly uphill and then the riders descend to the final 500m which are uphill at a gradient of 1.4%.

 

 

Padul has not hosted a stage finish of a major bike race in this century.

 

The weather:

Friday will be another cloudy day but the sun may come out in the afternoon. For most of the stage, there will be a 15% chance of rain. The maximum temperature will be 12 degrees and there will be barely be any wind, with just a very light breeze coming from an easterly direction. It means that it will first be a tailwind and then a headwind. On the final circuit, there will mainly be a crosswind – also on the final climb – and then it will be a cross-tailwind back to the finish. It will be a tailwind sprint.

 

The favourites:

Today’s final climb did much less damage than expected. Sky were the only team to take the initiative and they only used Nicolas Roche. Hence, most of the sprinters had survived and it was only a difficult descent that briefly threatened a sprint from a relatively big group. In the end, Nacer Bouhanni and several sprinters managed to get back with 3km to go and then the outcome was never really in doubt.

 

Tomorrow’s stage is a similar affair. The overall amount of climbing is a lot bigger so it is a harder stage. However, the longest climb comes at the midpoint and from there it is mainly downhill until they get to the final climb. Hence, it won’t play much of a role.

 

However, the final climb will be a challenge. It only averages 4% but it includes a very steep first part, woth 20% sections and one kilometre that averages more than 10%. Then there’s a short descent and a flatter section that lead to the final 2.5km that are around 6-7%.

 

This should make the final climb much harder than today’s and we can expect a much bigger selection. Furthermore, the riders will be more tired by the time they get to the bottom of the ascent. Finally, there will be no descent after the climb and less time to rejoin the peloton.

 

It’s the kind of stage that has no obvious favourite and this means that the break may have a small change if it contains no riders that are close on GC. Nacer Bouhanni has admitted that it will be hard for him to survive here so Cofidis won’t do much to defend their top position. Instead, it will be up to other teams to do the work.

 

Today Tinkoff did most of it but they won’t do so again tomorrow. However, we expect Movistar to take the initiative and Sky and Trek may also do so. Hence, it will probably be back together for the final climb.

 

Today Sky set the pace and they will probably do so again tomorrow to make sure than Ben Swift has fewer rivals. We were a bit surprised that BMC didn’t give it a go on the climb today. They have a formidable team and tomorrow they simply have to try to get rid of the sprinters. That will make the race selective and we expect a sprint from a small group than we had today.

 

Fabio Felline is both a great climber and able to win bunch kicks in a field like this one. Today he was second and tomorrow he will be keen to do better. He is a great climber who should be able to follow the best and as most of the sprinters are likely to have been dropped, he is our favourite to win the stage.

 

Ben Swift is known as a sprinter but he is a much better climber than most think. In the Vuelta al Pais Vasco, he has survived climbs that were much harder than this one and we expect him to be up there as he has shown great condition. He is not as fast as he once was but he is definitely capable of beating Felline if he can finally get the positioning right.

 

Juan Jose Lobato has often suffered on longer climbs but today he rode really well and was also attentive on the descent. Again the positioning destroyed things for him but he definitely has the form. Tomorrow the field will be smaller and he has Valverde to set him up for the sprint. The less technical finish should also make it easier for him and if he is there in the finale, he is likely to be the fastest.

 

Philippe Gilbert completely missed out in the sprint today but tomorrow the field will be smaller. BMC really have to try to make the race hard and he has a strong team to set him up for the sprint. However, he is not as fast as the likes of Felline and Swift. Alejandro Valverde is faster and able to beat most riders in this field. He may take his chance if Lobato is dropped but he won’t take any big risks.

 

At his best, Enrico Battaglin should easily survive this climb and he is fast enough to win these sprints. However, he has not been sprinting or climbing at his best level in recent years and he has also been a bit ill.

 

Enrique Sanz has shown outstanding condition since joining Southeast and looms as a strong joker after he climbed really well in today’s stage. Christophe Laporte may also be capable of surviving the climb and he will take his chance if Bouhanni is dropped. Another fast finisher is Tosh van der Sande and he has handled harder climbs in the past. However, he doesn’t seem to be at his best. Finally, Oscar Gatto was reportedly very strong today until he punctured on the descent. If he makes it, he will be one of the fastest.

[T-Bob]

Geschke is a cool dude

Won't tweet that unnecessarily

Hmmm

 

For sure. I'm not a fan of that kind of thing (the pushing) but I wonder where the line is? Riders get 'help' from the crowd in the bigger races often TdF, Giro etc. I remember one book I read, can't remember which one, where a team was reputed to have employed local students with local beer to stand every 10 people help a fav' up a certain Mur so he'd be fresh for an attack. didn't work so well as most of them were blind drunk by the time the race rolled through and missed their target. 

 

[GrumpyOldGuy]

For sure. I'm not a fan of that kind of thing (the pushing) but I wonder where the line is? Riders get 'help' from the crowd in the bigger races often TdF, Giro etc. I remember one book I read, can't remember which one, where a team was reputed to have employed local students with local beer to stand every 10 people help a fav' up a certain Mur so he'd be fresh for an attack. didn't work so well as most of them were blind drunk by the time the race rolled through and missed their target. 

 

Yeah, its unfair for the sprinters who dont get pushed, but then, as you say, it happens all the time, hard to police I guess.

 

That said I am not  much of a Bouhanni fan anyway, so I think he should get tossed out....

 

Just kidding, but on the other hand if one thinks back to the Nibali issue at the TDF where he was towed by the car for a few 100 metres and he was disqualified, is this so much different?

 

I dont think so. 

['Dale]

Aru was also pushed at Vuelta during a Tommy D attack which threatened the GC ladder

 

#teampushingdoping

[Cav']

Oscar Gatto (Ita) Tinkoff Team 3:51:17

2 Ben Swift (GBr) Team Sky

3 Raymond Kreder (Ned) Roompot - Oranje Peloton

4 Tim Wellens (Bel) Lotto Soudal

5 Fabio Felline (Ita) Trek-Segafredo

6 Brent Bookwalter (USA) BMC Racing Team

7 Simon Geschke (Ger) Team Giant-Alpecin

8 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) BMC Racing Team

9 Reto Hollenstein (Swi) IAM Cycling

10 Matteo Busato (Ita) Southeast - Venezuela

11 Alejandro Valverde (Spa) Movistar Team

12 Luis Angel Mate (Spa) Cofidis, Solutions Credits

13 Ruben Fernandez (Spa) Movistar Team

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GC

Ben Swift (GBr) Team Sky 12:26:52

2 Raymond Kreder (Ned) Roompot - Oranje Peloton

3 Reto Hollenstein (Swi) IAM Cycling

4 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) BMC Racing Team

5 Fabio Felline (Ita) Trek-Segafredo

6 Wouter Poels (Ned) Team Sky

7 Simon Geschke (Ger) Team Giant-Alpecin

8 Alejandro Valverde (Spa) Movistar Team

9 Matteo Busato (Ita) Southeast - Venezuela

10 Wilco Kelderman (Ned) Team LottoNl-Jumbo

11 Brent Bookwalter (USA) BMC Racing Team

[Cav']

ITT results:

1. Tejay van Garderen (USA) BMC Racing Team 0:27:05

2 Wilco Kelderman (Ned) Team Lottonl - Jumbo 0:00:02

3 Jérome Coppel (Fra) Iam Cycling 0:00:07

4 Brentbookwalter (USA) BMC Racing Team 0:00:15

5 Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Direct Energie 0:00:17

6 Wout Poels (Ned) Team Sky 0:00:20

7 Samuel Sánchez (Spa) Bmc Racing Team 0:00:21

8 Alejandro Valverde (Spa) Movistar Team 0:00:22

9 Javier Moreno (Spa) Movistar Team 0:00:24

10 Tobias Ludvigsson (Swe) Team Giant - Alpecin

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GC

1 Tejay Van Garderen (USA) BMC Racing Team 12:53:57

2 Wilco Kelderman (Ned) Team Lottonl - Jumbo 0:00:02

3 Jérome Coppel (Fra) Iam Cycling 0:00:07

4 Brentbookwalter (USA) BMC Racing Team 0:00:15

5 Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Direct Energie 0:00:17

6 Wout Poels (Ned) Team Sky 0:00:20

7 Samuel Sánchez (Spa) Bmc Racing Team 0:00:21

8 Alejandro Valverde (Spa) Movistar Team 0:00:22

9 Javier Moreno (Spa) Movistar Team 0:00:24

10 Tobias Ludvigsson (Swe) Team Giant - Alpecin

[Cav']

Stage results:

1VALVERDEAlejandroMovistar Team14204:46:51

2MOLLEMABaukeTrek - Segafredo5120:36

3MAJKARafałTinkoff370:42

4VAN GARDERENTejayBMC Racing Team 50:48

5KREUZIGERRomanTinkoff 41:07

6NAVARRODanielCofidis, Solutions Crédits 31:08

7KELDERMANWilcoTeam LottoNL - Jumbo 21:16

8ANTONIgorDimension Data for Qhubeka 11:19

9NIEVEMikelTeam Sky  1:27

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Final General Classification
ESP 1 VALVERDE BELMONTE, Alejandro (MOVISTAR) 17:41:10
USA 2 VAN GARDEREN, Tejay (BMC RACING) + 26
NED 3 MOLLEMA, Bauke (TREK - SEGAFREDO) + 52
NED 4 KELDERMAN, Wilco (LOTTO NL - JUMBO) + 56
POL 5 MAJKA, Rafal (TINKOFF) + 1:11
CZE 6 KREUZIGER, Roman (TINKOFF) + 1:37
NED 7 POELS, Wouter (SKY) + 1:42
USA 8 BOOKWALTER, Brent (BMC RACING) + 2:03
ESP 9 NAVARRO GARCIA, Daniel (COFIDIS, SOLUTIONS CREDITS) + 2:14
ESP 10 NIEVE ITURALDE, Mikel (SKY) + 2:45

[T-Bob]

Hey, hold on... What???? When did the youngest old man in the peloton take the lead? Okay, just read a report. Sounds like a fairly action packed stage. I wish these early races would get good coverage as there seems to be a lot of form to watch heading into the awesomeness that is the classics.