2016 Tour of Oman (16 - 21 Feb)

['Dale]

http://www.steephill.tv/2016/tour-of-oman/photos/stage-03/083639_20160218TOO0002.jpg

What a fleet

Wow

[Cav']

Tour of Oman, stage 4:

The course:

Since the second edition in 2011, the Green Mountain, or Jabal al Akhdar, has played host to the finish of the queen stage of the race and been the scene of the season's first big mountain battle between some of the best grand tour riders in the world. With the stage having been a huge success in the past editions, the organizers have found little reason to remove the race's landmark climb and it will again be the scene of the queen stage. Like last year, the key stage comes on stage 4 after it has previously been held on the penultimate day but this year the organizers have made the stage even tougher as they will now go further up the mountain, making the brutally steep climb even longer.

 

Apart from the change in the finale, the stage is almost identical with the one that has been used in the previous editions and it is only the starting point and the first part that vary a bit. This year the distance has been shortened a bit as the riders will cover a total of 177km from the start at Knowledge Oasis Muscat until they reach the top of the Green Mountain. Right from the start, they will head into the desert, approaching the mighty climb which will gradually become visible in the horizon.

 

In the first part, the roads are gradually ascending and already after 15km they will hit the course of last year’s stage from where there are no changes until the riders get to the very finale. They will continue in a southerly direction as they approach the mountains, following a long, gradual uphill drag that will not be too challenging. They will reach a temporary top before heading down to Al Jarda where they will turn right and contest the first intermediate sprint after 82.5km of racing.

 

From there, they will follow rolling roads for the next 86km as they travel in a predominantly westerly direction until they reach the site of the second intermediate sprint in Birkat Al Mouz. From there, only 13.5km remain but most of them are simply brutal.

 

The riders will start to climb immediately after turning right to head north out of the city but the first 5.8km will be easy as the gradients are very mellow. However, all hell breaks loose when the riders hit the bottom of the Green Mountain. It has a length of just 7.5km but with an average gradient of 10.7%, it is a real leg breaker. Last year they only climbed 5.8km at an average of 10.5% but 1800 even steeper metres have been added.

 

The first two kilometres have average gradients of 11.4% and 12.8% respectively but then there is a bit of a respite with a 5.5% section. It is only a chance to breathe before the brutal finale. The final 4km average 11.9%, 12.4%, 11.9% and 13% respectively, making it one for the true climbers. There are four hairpin turns inside the final 2km before a light bend leads onto the 200m finishing straight.

 

The finish on the Green Mountain made its debut in 2011 when Robert Gesink put a massive 47 seconds into his nearest rival, Edvald Boasson Hagen. One year later, Vincenzo Nibali beat Peter Velits to move to within one second of the overall lead. In 2013, the climb was the scene of a thrilling battle between Cadel Evans, Alberto Contador, Chris Froome, and Joaquim Rodriguez, with lots of attacks and riders constantly dropping off before getting back to the front. Having already lost time on the previous stages, Rodriguez exploited the tactical face-off between his competitors to sneak away for the win while Froome accelerated inside the final kilometre to take second and the overall lead. In 2014, Team Sky used an unusual tactic by sending Sergio Henao on the attack and when he was caught, Froome delivered a demonstration of force to take an impressive solo win. Last year it came down to a final battle between Rafael Valls and Tejay van Garderen and surprisingly the Spaniard turned out to be the strongest.

 

The weather:

After today’s rain, Friday will be a typical Oman day. It will be beautiful sunshine with a maximum temperature in Muscat of 24 degrees. There will be a moderate wind from a southwesterly direction which means that it will mainly be a tailwind and then a crosswind in the run-in to the climb. On the ascent, there will be a headwind.

 

The favourites:

After today’s small intermezzo for the sprinters, the GC battle will be resumed in the queen stage which will be harder than ever before. The Green Mountain stage has always been by far the most decisive stage in the race and with the addition of 1800m of very steep climbing, the time gaps will be even bigger than they have been in the past.

 

This is the stage that has attracted all the big grand tour contenders who want to test their condition on one of the hardest climbs in cycling. Hence, there will be no room for a breakaway. Astana want to win the stage with Vincenzo Nibali and have been very active in this race so they will work with Dimension Data and maybe Ag2r to make sure that it is back together for the climb.

 

There will be crosswind in the run-in and this will make things very nervous and the fight for position extremely intense. In stage 2, the peloton split in the wind before they even got to the climb. The wins is not very strong so it is unlikely to happen but everyone has to be on their toes.

 

There will be a headwind on the final climb but it will make very little difference. On these gradients, it is all about the legs and there is no need for punch and explosiveness. This is a stage for the pure climbers who excel on the steepest gradients.

 

For the first time since 2013, Vincenzo Nibali seems to be in good condition in the sprint. Finally, he is back to his usual consistent level and has been very strong in this race. To finish second in an uphill sprint for puncheurs is pretty impressive for the Italian who is not very explosive. At the same time, he is the best climber in this race and he has proved in the past that he can do very well on steep gradients – he is even a former winner on the Green Mountain. We expect Astana to try to make the race hard and then Nibali is probably strong enough to finish it off, making him our favourite to win the stage.

 

His big rival will be Domenico Pozzovivo. The Italian is one of the most consistent riders in the peloton and finally seems to be back to his best after his horror crash in the Giro. He attacked on stage 1 and he put everybody in the hurt zone with a strong acceleration in stage 2 whose final climb didn’t suit him. Tomorrow’s final climb is tailor-made for him: very steep and not too long. If anyone is going to beat Nibali, it is probably Pozzovivo.

 

We are curious to see how Richie Porte will do. The Australian is out of the GC battle and has been taking it easy for the last few days after he arrived late from Australia. However, he wants to use this stage as his big test for Paris-Nice. He has not been shining in this race but he was very good in the Tour Down Under. That form cannot have disappeared completely. Tomorrow he will finally go into the red zone and if he has his usual legs, he is strong enough to challenge Nibali.

 

Ag2r have another card to play with Romain Bardet but the Frenchman has not been as impressive as his teammate Pozzovivo. He has been suffering more on the climbs. On the other hand, he had to chase back after he was caught out in the crosswinds on stage 2 and this has definitely cost him some energy.

 

Gianluca Brambilla was a surprise victim in the first stage but bounced back with a great ride on stage 2. It is not unusual for riders to suffer in the first stages in Oman before bouncing back in the queen stage. He was in great condition in Mallorca and should be up there.

 

We never got the chance to see what Daniel Martin could do in stage 2 as he was dropped in the crosswinds. On paper, this climb suits him well and he was strong in stage 1. He openly admits that his form is probably not good enough to win but we expect him to be among the best.

 

Floris De Tier was another crosswind victim but the Belgian is a very talented climber and he could be the big surprise of tomorrow. Eduardo Sepulveda is also capable of a good ride as he was in great form in San Luis and bounced back from his stage 1 crash with a good performance in stage 2 which didn’t suit him. Other interesting contenders are Jacques Janse van Rensburg and Patrick Konrad who have both been climbing really well in this race.

 

Of course Rui Costa will also be up there but the climb is too steep for him to win. The same goes for Edvald Boasson Hagen who will lose his leader’s jersey.

[Cav']

Stage 4:

 

1NIBALIVincenzoAstana Pro Team20304:25:48

2BARDETRomainAG2R La Mondiale10180:09

3FUGLSANGJakobAstana Pro Team5120:12

4DUMOULINTomTeam Giant - Alpecin 70:18

5COSTARuiLampre - Merida 40:38

6KUDUSMerhawiDimension Data for Qhubeka 30:43

7BENNETTGeorgeTeam LottoNL - Jumbo 2,,

8CANTYBrendanDrapac Professional Cycling 10:45

9DE TIERFlorisTopsport Vlaanderen - Baloise  1:08

10BOASSON HAGENEdvaldDimension Data for Qhubeka  1:10

11SEPÚLVEDAEduardoFortuneo - Vital Concept  ,,

12POZZOVIVODomenicoAG2R La Mondiale  1:22

13BUCHMANNEmanuelBora-Argon 18  1:29

14BRAMBILLAGianlucaEtixx - Quick Step  ,,

[Cav']

GC:

1(2)NIBALIVincenzoAstana Pro Team516:18:35

2(4)BARDETRomainAG2R La Mondiale 0:15

3(7)FUGLSANGJakobAstana Pro Team 0:24

4(11)DUMOULINTomTeam Giant - Alpecin 0:40

5(6)COSTARuiLampre - Merida 0:54

6(1)BOASSON HAGENEdvaldDimension Data for Qhubeka 1:16

7(15)CANTYBrendanDrapac Professional Cycling 1:31

8(8)POZZOVIVODomenicoAG2R La Mondiale 1:38

9(19)KUDUSMerhawiDimension Data for Qhubeka 1:41

10(12)BRAMBILLAGianlucaEtixx - Quick Step 1:59

11(17)SEPÚLVEDAEduardoFortuneo - Vital Concept 2:04

12(16)BUCHMANNEmanuelBora-Argon 18 2:15

13(13)VAN DEN BROECKJurgenTeam Katusha 2:34

[T-Bob]

Kudos to Eddy B and Kudus. Team DD is keeping front and centre early in the season. EBH seems to be in great form. I wonder which of the classics he's thinking of as he's climbing very well. 

 

Edit: I take it Ritchie P didn't put in an appearance? 

['Dale]

Kudos to Eddy B and Kudus. Team DD is keeping front and centre early in the season. EBH seems to be in great form. I wonder which of the classics he's thinking of as he's climbing very well.

 

Edit: I take it Ritchie P didn't put in an appearance?

I sure hope EBH can contend the Classics

Him and Nathan Haas ????

[xcd]

DD won team prize

['Dale]

Team prize

Whoohoooooooo

['Dale]

They can easily take team classification glory after today

Here's hoping

[T-Bob]

I sure hope EBH can contend the Classics

Him and Nathan Haas

 

He actually came out today saying he wants Roubaix... who doesn't!

['Dale]

He actually came out today saying he wants Roubaix... who doesn't!

Well, well, well

It'll require seriaaas team effort

And the team is looking really solid at this stage

['Dale]

EBH clinches first spot - AGAIN!   
Whoohoooo

['Dale]

Green Mountain stage

That Dumelang is such a silver lining for the beleaguered Giant-Alpecin team

Check his pacing out here

Brilliant

 

['Dale]

Brave ride by Bardet

[Cav']

Well done EbH!

[Cav']

1. Boasson Hagen (Not) Dimension Data 3:05:32

2 Greg van Avermaet (Bel) BMC

3 Marco Canola (Ita) UnitedHealthcare

4 Simone Ponzi (Ita) CCC Sprandi

5 Gianluca Brambilla (Ita) Etixx-QuickStep

6 Gerald Ciolek (Ger) Stölting Service Group

7 Sven Erik Bystrom (Nor) Katusha

8 Adam Phelan (Aus) Drapac Professional Cycling

9 Marco Marcato (Ita) Wanty-Groupe Gobert

10 Nathan Haas (Aus) Dimension Data