On the subject of Contador, let's look at his situation. Right now he's 1:21 off the top GC riders. Not a totally insurmountable gap for him if he was in perfect health and had a full team of healthy riders still supporting him. Well, he's still got his full team and all are healthy (from what we know), with Majka and Kreutziger both looking in good form, which is a very big tick on the plus side for him. Personally, besides personal pride I think this is the only reason why he's still holding on right now. But of course we know he's not in perfect health. All we have to do is look at the way he's twisted on the bike and how he's holding the bars to see that things are not good. So what are his options? 1. Drop out now and start preparing for his home grand tour, the Vuelta (as Cav' mentioned). -- And there's also the Olympics to consider. It looks like a perfect parcours for him. -- The Olympic mens road race is almost exactly 1 month away (takes place on 6 Aug) and then the Vuelta starts on 20 August. If he drops out now there's more than enough time to recover from his injuries and get back to 100% before these two hugely important dangling carrots. 2. Stay in the race, keep his eye on GC and hope to recover in time for the Pyrenees. -- The problem is that means he's only got today and then they're into the big stuff tomorrow (the stage ends with the huge climb up the Col d'Aspin). -- Now looking at how he's sitting on his bike (pic below), it's going to take a miracle to see him recover in time. -- To be honest, if he does make a massive recovery in the space of 48 hours there are bound to be a lot of questions waiting for him to answer. 3. Stay in the race, forget about GC and go for stage wins. -- If he makes this decision, it will be during tomorrows stage in the first day of the Pyrenees. If we see him taking a drubbing and he's still around on Monday's rest day, then we know he's chosen option 3. -- If he's chosen this path then he has to lose a huge chunk of time. He needs to be 20+ mins down on GC to allow the other teams to let him go on a big solo break in week 3 in the Alps. ----------------------------- But at the end of the day, Tinkoff also need to make a decision that best suits the team, not just AC. So how do these options affect them? 1. AC pulls out now: -- Well Kreuziger is very well placed, just 11 sec down on Froome and most of the other top names. -- He's a very good plan B: he's been top 5 overall before in 2 grand tours (Giro & TDF) and is in his prime at 30 years old. -- He's had some good results this year and is looking in excellent shape at the moment. -- And again, he's got a full team (except AC) still there to work for him. 2. AC stays for GC: -- OK, but then I don't expect Kreuziger to work for him if he falls back. This already happened yesterday - Kreuziger was given the green light to ride away for his own result. 3. AC stays for stage wins only: -- The whole team then focuses on Kreuziger and AC is left to his own devices until he feels well enough in the Alps. -- Problem is that AC will still expect to have team support when he does go for his big stage wins, and that takes away resources to support Kreuziger's bid. So which option? I think we can safely scratch out option 2. He's finished with GC. Let the team focus on Kreuziger now; it's a tough call to make so early in the Tour, but the call must be made early to give him (and the team) the best chance possible. For AC's sake, I agree with Cav': he should pull out. So option 3 should also be scratched. What use is he to the team now? He's not going to be able to make any contributions in the state he's in. Again, he can still salvage the season with the Olympics and a Vuelta win very much on the cards. Sagan is still making headlines and going for Green, so Oleg will still get more than enough of his precious TV time. Let AC withdraw with dignity and recover properly. He can still get a grand tour win this year if he does. If he stays he won't. Pull out AC, you're not going to lose our respect. You've proved yourself many times over already. Time for you to think with your head and not your heart.
