nomoregravity

Thanks for a great competition where the challenges pushed most of us out of our comfort zones. How many in the draw?

Soooooo.. anyone been contacted telephonically yet?

The 30th flip proved to be a great illustration of why it's an observation and not a law :-)

Counter-intuitive yes, but once your head gets around the implications of "random" it should make sense. A simple 50/50 example is a good start, like the toss in cricket. A captain might decide at the start of his career to always call heads, assuming that he should be right 50% of the time. In reality, he may end up being captain for twenty matches, and never win a toss. Each new throw of the coin is a new event - the coin doesn't have a memory (or a conscience :-) ). The law of averages isn't really a law, but rather an observation that, over time and millions of throws of the coin, heads and tails occur in more or less equal frequencies. In this competition, if it was only you and me that completed all four challenges, and there were two entries up for grabs, and we assumed that you can only win once, we would each have a 50% chance in the first draw. The person losing in the first draw would then have a 100% chance of winning the SECOND draw, which would also be the last. So, in an event with multiple draws, your best odds is always what it will be in the FINAL draw. If we added dirtypot to the mix, we would each have a 1 in 3 chance for the first entry, while you and dirtypot would each have a 50% odds for the second entry, as I would have won the first! I also seem to care more about this than I should...

I was so NOT gonna be the stats Nazi, but it really is only 0.418% First draw 1 chance in 240 (0.416%), second draw 1 chance in 239 (0.418%)... Excellent odds anyways!

Thanks meezo, any idea on overall times?

Updates Stan!? And a photo or two? Who's leading? How about posting a daily bulletin up to the end of the week? Saturday's stage must have been brutal - DC on gravel, on your own, as the first stage of 6... Rooting for Nils!

Even the best make mistakes sometimes, even if only i n choosing a partner ;-) 1-1 Christoph Sauser .... 2015 - Winner (Men) Cat Pos: 1. GC Pos: 1. Time: 31:00.57,7 Stage Wins: Stg 1. Stg 2. Stg 3. Stg 5. Stg 6. (5)2014 - Finisher (Men) Cat Pos: 2. GC Pos: 2. Time: 30:42.22,4 Stage Wins: Stg 3. (1)2013 - Winner (Men) Cat Pos: 1. GC Pos: 1. Time: 29:40.44,9 Stage Wins: Prlg. Stg 4. Stg 5. Stg 6. (4)2012 - Winner (Men) Cat Pos: 1. GC Pos: 1. Time: 31:46.50,5 Stage Wins: Prlg. Stg 1. Stg 3. Stg 4. Stg 5. Stg 7. (6)2011 - Winner (Men) Cat Pos: 1. GC Pos: 1. Time: 28:44.44,0 Stage Wins: Prlg. Stg 1. Stg 2. Stg 4. Stg 5. (5)

A regular at the local... No champagne in the foreground, no elephant in the background, but I'd take it anyway :-)

3 or 2 or 1... Rain predicted from around Saturday midday, so we might have to start on Friday morning already. Driving out tomorrow morning, losing cellphone reception on top of the Swartberg around 3pm. Anyone still welcome to come and join for a few laps :-)

Thanks! "Trepidation" is no longer only a word :-) Weather's looking promising too...

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