nomoregravity

Thanks for a great competition where the challenges pushed most of us out of our comfort zones. How many in the draw?

Soooooo.. anyone been contacted telephonically yet?

The 30th flip proved to be a great illustration of why it's an observation and not a law :-)

Counter-intuitive yes, but once your head gets around the implications of "random" it should make sense. A simple 50/50 example is a good start, like the toss in cricket. A captain might decide at the start of his career to always call heads, assuming that he should be right 50% of the time. In reality, he may end up being captain for twenty matches, and never win a toss. Each new throw of the coin is a new event - the coin doesn't have a memory (or a conscience :-) ). The law of averages isn't really a law, but rather an observation that, over time and millions of throws of the coin, heads and tails occur in more or less equal frequencies. In this competition, if it was only you and me that completed all four challenges, and there were two entries up for grabs, and we assumed that you can only win once, we would each have a 50% chance in the first draw. The person losing in the first draw would then have a 100% chance of winning the SECOND draw, which would also be the last. So, in an event with multiple draws, your best odds is always what it will be in the FINAL draw. If we added dirtypot to the mix, we would each have a 1 in 3 chance for the first entry, while you and dirtypot would each have a 50% odds for the second entry, as I would have won the first! I also seem to care more about this than I should...

I was so NOT gonna be the stats Nazi, but it really is only 0.418% First draw 1 chance in 240 (0.416%), second draw 1 chance in 239 (0.418%)... Excellent odds anyways!

Thanks meezo, any idea on overall times?

Updates Stan!? And a photo or two? Who's leading? How about posting a daily bulletin up to the end of the week? Saturday's stage must have been brutal - DC on gravel, on your own, as the first stage of 6... Rooting for Nils!

Even the best make mistakes sometimes, even if only i n choosing a partner ;-) 1-1 Christoph Sauser .... 2015 - Winner (Men) Cat Pos: 1. GC Pos: 1. Time: 31:00.57,7 Stage Wins: Stg 1. Stg 2. Stg 3. Stg 5. Stg 6. (5)2014 - Finisher (Men) Cat Pos: 2. GC Pos: 2. Time: 30:42.22,4 Stage Wins: Stg 3. (1)2013 - Winner (Men) Cat Pos: 1. GC Pos: 1. Time: 29:40.44,9 Stage Wins: Prlg. Stg 4. Stg 5. Stg 6. (4)2012 - Winner (Men) Cat Pos: 1. GC Pos: 1. Time: 31:46.50,5 Stage Wins: Prlg. Stg 1. Stg 3. Stg 4. Stg 5. Stg 7. (6)2011 - Winner (Men) Cat Pos: 1. GC Pos: 1. Time: 28:44.44,0 Stage Wins: Prlg. Stg 1. Stg 2. Stg 4. Stg 5. (5)

A regular at the local... No champagne in the foreground, no elephant in the background, but I'd take it anyway :-)

In that case, I'm planning the cycling equivalent of banging my head against a wall: ride up the back of Malanshoogte 30 times on Saturday morning... Actually it's a scouting/training ride for an Everesting attempt later this year. And on cue Strava has a new climbing challenge: http://www.strava.com/challenges/climb-for-nepal Maybe it will ease the pain :-)

Just hoping the same logic doesn't apply for NOT winning, ie 4 x 123/124 = 496/124 = 397% So we're lucky that Murphy, AndreV and THAT guy with 2222 posts take the first three entries, which will at least leave the rest of us with only a 120/121 chance of not winning.

Hallo Matt! Later which morning?

Some bag-grabbing reported on cycle lane again close to the Woodstock station this morning around 9. Take care, and maybe wait for a bunch before attempting the stretch through Paardeneiland into town.

Not hectic at all - it's the Raubenheimer Dam about 25 km outside Oudtshoorn! They had some good rains in early summer, thus the greener than usual vegetation, and the morning of that ride was absolutely perfect. I just had to put my hand through the fence and click :-)

Unfair - you're a local!!! If you see the bike in the picture at the Attakwas, corner me for the promised ride on Sunday. We might even make a detour to see this:

If you know where this is, you're invited for a ride up there next Sunday 19th Jan :-)

Gee, is this a trip down memory lane. In the eighties, between my friends and I, there used to be at least one bike of each of the brands above at any given time (after we graduated from the Western Flyers with the brake lever extensions along the crossbar, that is). Read this, it's a great article, and includes a list of South African frame builders from the 60's to today: http://mg.co.za/article/2013-09-13-00-fixed-assets-a-bicycle-frame-of-mind

https://www.asgevents.co.za/pages/events/raceSignUp.php?id=157

If you buy a bike just to ride the 5 km along Grayston twice a day, you'll be selling it again before Christmas. In that case, buy an entry-level brand name mtb, as they are the easiest to get (and get rid of) at a reasonable price... If you're already thinking of longer routes to work, chances are that, sooner rather than later, you'll own at least one of each (road and mtb - hybrids fail on the fun scale). Get a bike this weekend, ride on Monday, enjoy :-)