Making an estimate for a future ftp value

[Ryno.]

Hi to all, I would like to see if I can write a small programme on excel that predicts an ftp value for a future time.

But I need your help. I need 3-5 ftp values that you actually performed and the dates for them. Obviously there is a lot of variables in the equation so the data needs to be as consistent as possible meaning the amount of training you've done between them and the length of the tests as well as the preparation for the test.

1. I need at least 3 results from tests

2. A short summary of the average hrs/week during the gaps between dates

3. You don't have to provide dates. The amount of days between test is also fine

4. You don't need to provide ftp values it can be anything from 8min values -60min values. As long as the length of each test was the same.

5. You don't have to provide the length of each test.

6. You can reply to this thread or PM me.

I will not make your public.

And hopefully in the end I can get a formula that predicts your future ftp value.

[Ryno.]

Any advice is also welcome, I am no expert But I woukd like to give it a go.

[Ryno.]

Due to a lack of data (none whatsoever  ) except my own I've created a possible prediction for my future FTP... obviously there is a lot of variables involved and by no means is it accurate, but here is my example. 

 

 

 

I experimented on excel and then went on to Matlab to draw the final graph.

I'll be more than willing to create a graph for anyone , just send me the data.

[ivr32]

Due to a lack of data (none whatsoever  ) except my own I've created a possible prediction for my future FTP... obviously there is a lot of variables involved and by no means is it accurate, but here is my example. 

 

 

 

I experimented on excel and then went on to Matlab to draw the final graph.

I'll be more than willing to create a graph for anyone , just send me the data.

100 watts in 300 days, good luck with that

Or give me the name of whatever substance you are using

[Ryno.]

100 watts in 300 days, good luck with that

Or give me the name of whatever substance you are using

 

Due to a lack of data (none whatsoever  ) except my own I've created a possible prediction for my future FTP... obviously there is a lot of variables involved and by no means is it accurate, but here is my example. 

 

 

 

I experimented on excel and then went on to Matlab to draw the final graph.

I'll be more than willing to create a graph for anyone , just send me the data.

This is just a prediction, after I've done another FTP I will also plot the result and update the graph. 

The reason behind the initial idea was to see if there is to find a more specific relation between improvement in FTP vs training vs time.

At this stage I am hoping to go to 330 in 245 days from the start(end of August). 

[gtr1]

100 watts in 300 days, good luck with that

Or give me the name of whatever substance you are using

I suppose this will all depend on the base that you start from. Someone with a usually high for, that is unfit, will test with a low ftp, but after almost a year of serious training could improve by 100.

 

Probably not possible for someone coming off a fairly high base to start with.

[Ryno.]

I suppose this will all depend on the base that you start from. Someone with a usually high for, that is unfit, will test with a low ftp, but after almost a year of serious training could improve by 100.

 

Probably not possible for someone coming off a fairly high base to start with.

Yup , first test was done after only 2 weeks of training after being of the bike for 3 months(measured during base training block)

second test was done after my first peak for the season( upped the intensity in the previous 4 weeks)

Third test was done in the middle of a  training block with a lot of races

next 2 will be after another 4 weeks each

and my third one from now will be close to my 2nd peak of the season. (The one where I am aiming for 330)