Anything About The Tour Of California

[nochain]

Agreed! Levi and Chris left him for dead up Mt. Baldy. Baldy and baldy won on Mt. Baldy - oh thats rich

 

Either Andy has a master plan or he is in a wee bit of trouble. Chris Horner is looking in fine form though! Hopefully 'the Shack presents a competitive trifecta to LeeeeeeOHpard and Saxo Bank at the TdF.

 

Andy will be very much ready for the tour....I would be worried if he was able to win stages now. It’s normal for the GC contenders to only really start showing form in the last 2 weeks before the tour and you will find none of the real contenders will be showing anything at this stage.

In about 3 to 4 weeks’ time we will start to see who the TDF contenders are for this year.

 

Conto is a different story because he peaked for the Giro so he has to be on top form....for him the real battle will be to get back to this kind of form in 6 weeks’ time.

But I think he might just not do too much in the final week of the Giro because of he's big lead and that could get him ready in time because the 3rd week of a tour is normally the one that breaks a GC rider and now he can actually ride a bit within himself.

[Eldron]

Andy will be very much ready for the tour....I would be worried if he was able to win stages now. It’s normal for the GC contenders to only really start showing form in the last 2 weeks before the tour and you will find none of the real contenders will be showing anything at this stage.

In about 3 to 4 weeks’ time we will start to see who the TDF contenders are for this year.

 

Conto is a different story because he peaked for the Giro so he has to be on top form....for him the real battle will be to get back to this kind of form in 6 weeks’ time.

But I think he might just not do too much in the final week of the Giro because of he's big lead and that could get him ready in time because the 3rd week of a tour is normally the one that breaks a GC rider and now he can actually ride a bit within himself.

 

There is building form and building form - Andy was beaten by all and sundry in California - he looked ragged and battled to sprint at the top of Mt. Baldy...

 

My guess would be illness or coming to the end of an over load week.

 

Don't forget this is the same Andy that was challenging Gilbert at Liege-Bastogne-Liege not so long ago - had a fine showing at Amstel Gold too.

 

I do agree with you on the peaking thing but Andy should be closer to his peak than his California performance.

 

Conty I think is a different kettle of fish - I think he peaked for Giro purely because he may not get a start at the Tour. Hopefully he doesn't perform well if he makes the Tour (no - I am not a Conty fan).

[nochain]

There is building form and building form - Andy was beaten by all and sundry in California - he looked ragged and battled to sprint at the top of Mt. Baldy...

 

My guess would be illness or coming to the end of an over load week.

 

Don't forget this is the same Andy that was challenging Gilbert at Liege-Bastogne-Liege not so long ago - had a fine showing at Amstel Gold too.

 

I do agree with you on the peaking thing but Andy should be closer to his peak than his California performance.

 

Conty I think is a different kettle of fish - I think he peaked for Giro purely because he may not get a start at the Tour. Hopefully he doesn't perform well if he makes the Tour (no - I am not a Conty fan).

Yes It's very hard to tell, he might be coming of a 4 week hard training program going up against guy's that specifically trained and peaked for this race.

For RadioShack this race would have been a big big goal races and Levi and Horner...like Conto would be in top form....100% on weight and as fresh as can be.

 

Guy's like Basso,Evans,Gesink,Frank and Andy and the rest will probably be 2 to 3kg heavier now than what they will be at the tour so climbing will be a bit slower and harder for them now.

 

We will just have to wait and see...the Tour de swiss and the Daulpine(spelling) will give us an idee of the guy's that time it right.

I for One hope Gesink and Basso shows up ready to go and then we will have a race for sure.

Would be good to have conto there but if they push him a bit in this final week of the Giro I will be very surprised to see him be there up front in the 3rd week.

[GrumpyOldGuy]

The Radioshack Giro team can hardly be considered their TdF team:

211 Yaroslav Popovych (Ukr)

212 Robbie McEwen (Aus)

213 Tiago Machado (Por)

214 Fumiyuki Beppu (Jpn)

215 Manuel Antonio Leal Cardoso (Por)

216 Philip Deignan (Irl)

217 Bjorn Selander (USA)

218 Robert Hunter (RSA)

219 Ivan Rovny (Rus)

 

Poppy is the only decent GC rider there and he kept getting into breaks - methinks Radioshack's aims at the Giro were purely training.The California team:

Team RadioShack

 

1 Levi Leipheimer (USA)

2 Matthew Busche (USA)

3 Christopher Horner (USA)

4 Markel Irizar Aranburu (Spa)

5 Jason McCartney (USA)

6 Dmitriy Muravyev (Kaz)

7 Ben King (USA)

8 Haimar Zubeldia Aguirre (Spa)

 

I'm guessing this is the core of their TdF team...

 

Hush, Shhhhh, I wouldnt say that out loud, the Giro organisers dont like teams using their race for training and have said so on numerous occassions.

Last year when the Shack declined to send a team to ride the Giro, saying the TOC was more important, they were summarily not invited to the Vuelta either.

 

It was a harsh lesson in humility for Bruyneel and Co, but they got the message, they are in no position to dictate, and this year sent a team.

 

I dont think they really have a strong Grand Tour team anyway, perhaps Horner and Zubeldia (at a push) could be considered possible GC hopefulls at a grand tour, but none of the others, I dont think Levi has a top step at a 21 day grand tour in him.

[GrumpyOldGuy]

I for One hope Gesink and Basso shows up ready to go and then we will have a race for sure.

Would be good to have conto there but if they push him a bit in this final week of the Giro I will be very surprised to see him be there up front in the 3rd week.

 

I think 'Berto has a triple in him, he is without a doubt the best grand tour competitor of the modern day, arguably ever, if it can be done, he is the only one to do it. So yeah, I am all for seeing him in July, ready and able.

 

I dont pay attention to doping scandels and court cases, its boring, fractitious and repetitive, it breeds contempt and destroys any good will and humility amongst fans and riders alike.

 

Focusing on the spectacle there cannot be a single HONEST cycling fan on this earth who watched this years Giro and did not say, "that was epic cycling by 'Berto" he has single handedly provided a spectacular event that has held millions enthalled, forgeting the negativity and focusing on the athlete, the stage and the marvellous spectacle that he has provided, you cannot help but say "that was enthalling",

Edited May 23, 2011 by GrumpyOldGuy

[nochain]

I think 'Berto has a triple in him, he is without a doubt the best grand tour competitor of the modern day, arguably ever, if it can be done, he is the only one to do it. So yeah, I am all for seeing him in July, ready and able.

 

I dont pay attention to doping scandels and court cases, its boring, fractitious and repetitive, it breeds contempt and destroys any good will and humility amongst fans and riders alike.

 

Focusing on the spectacle there cannot be a single HONEST cycling fan on this earth who watched this years Giro and did not say, "that was epic cycling by 'Berto" he has single handedly provided a spectacular event that has held millions enthalled, forgeting the negativity and focusing on the athlete, the stage and the marvellous spectacle that he has provided, you cannot help but say "that was enthalling",

Also don't really care about doping discussions, I know the chances are very good that all of the top GC contenders are on something and most probably use the same stuff. So then you either accept it like that or point a finger every time someone has a great day on a bike.

To me the playing field is as level as can be as far as doping goes so what is left is training, talent and team/race tactics.

 

 

The reason I say I would be surprised if he is there on top in the 3rd week is the riders he is going up against will all be 100% prepared and won't have the problems he must face now to recover and get himself back to top form in 6 weeks.

If Andy,Frank,Basso,Gesink and Evans goes there with perfect preparation and He still beats them then Yes I will have to agree he probably will the best Tour rider of all time.

 

I think we might have one of the best Tours this year for some time.

Basso goes there for the first time really focused on the Tour only.

Evans also changed his race plans this year to have fresher legs.

Andy and Frank know how to prepare for the Tour and at least one of them will be very very strong.

Gesink will be the dark horse and I hope he comes in with good form, this year he will not have to work for Menchov.

[Eldron]

Focusing on the spectacle there cannot be a single HONEST cycling fan on this earth who watched this years Giro and did not say, "that was epic cycling by 'Berto" he has single handedly provided a spectacular event that has held millions enthalled, forgeting the negativity and focusing on the athlete, the stage and the marvellous spectacle that he has provided, you cannot help but say "that was enthalling",

 

Watching the Giro I didn't really think that Berto was as explosive/fast/good as he was at last year's TdF - sure he smoked the field but he hardly lept forth from his saddle and destroyed everyone. Pretty much every "attack" was Berto standing up and pedalling as the rest of the field's collective heads dropped...

 

For the nerdy amongst us here are some VAM comparisons between Horners and Bertos climbing:

 

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/data-reveals-contadors-giro-ditalia-performance

 

I don't for a minute believe Horner can outclimb Berto but maintain that the Shlecks got better and faster attacks out of Berto at the 2010 TdF than the entire field at the 2011 Giro...

 

Whatever happens - bring on July - I feel the excitement building already!

[GrumpyOldGuy]

 

I think we might have one of the best Tours this year for some time.

Basso goes there for the first time really focused on the Tour only.

Evans also changed his race plans this year to have fresher legs.

Andy and Frank know how to prepare for the Tour and at least one of them will be very very strong.

Gesink will be the dark horse and I hope he comes in with good form, this year he will not have to work for Menchov.

 

Yeah, I dont know if its so much the physical recovery that will be 'Berto's issue, but the mental one, I think 6 weeks for guys at this level and 'Berto's age is enough time to recover physically.

 

I dont hold out much hope for Basso or Evans, I think they are just too old unfortunately, harsh maybe, but reality. The new crop of young riders like 'Berto, Andy, Kreuziger, Gesink etc are, where I think, the tour will be contended, like it or not youth has its advantages.

[GrumpyOldGuy]

Watching the Giro I didn't really think that Berto was as explosive/fast/good as he was at last year's TdF - sure he smoked the field but he hardly lept forth from his saddle and destroyed everyone. Pretty much every "attack" was Berto standing up and pedalling as the rest of the field's collective heads dropped...

 

 

Yeah, maybe, but I think the mountains are also important to note, the climbs in the tour are nowhere nearly as brutal as the Giro, nor are the stages, so its possible, but due to the terrain.

 

I dont know anything about VAM so thats just going over my head but if one looks at the gears a climber like 'Berto used on the Zoncolan (34/32) and on Sundays stage as well, I just think it would be impossible to jump away on those climbs, that they could actually turn the blades over is quite amazing.

[Eldron]

Yeah, maybe, but I think the mountains are also important to note, the climbs in the tour are nowhere nearly as brutal as the Giro, nor are the stages, so its possible, but due to the terrain.

 

I dont know anything about VAM so thats just going over my head but if one looks at the gears a climber like 'Berto used on the Zoncolan (34/32) and on Sundays stage as well, I just think it would be impossible to jump away on those climbs, that they could actually turn the blades over is quite amazing.

 

Those were some severe climbs - Zoncolan was the only place I saw Berto wearing a grimace!

 

VAM is effectively how fast you are climbing vertically - the data suggests that Horner was climbing UP faster in Cali than Berto was in Italy...

 

Either Berto is FLYING at the moment or his competition at the Giro was terrible. Bit of both I think...

['Dale]

Great discussion on FORM, contributors.

 

Very good views all-round.

 

Can't believe the TdF is so close.

And the Girp is into its final week.

 

Soon, 'Berto's hearing is also on - scheduled for a few weeks before the TdF.

[nochain]

Those were some severe climbs - Zoncolan was the only place I saw Berto wearing a grimace!

 

VAM is effectively how fast you are climbing vertically - the data suggests that Horner was climbing UP faster in Cali than Berto was in Italy...

 

Either Berto is FLYING at the moment or his competition at the Giro was terrible. Bit of both I think...

Eldron,

I did not look at those VAM numbers but if you are saying that Horner had a bigger number then to me it could be because of the following.

 

Horner is at he's very peak at the moment in terms of Power to weight and won't be able to replicate that at the tour.....

We all know what kind of VAM numbers Contador is capable of at the moment and the only thing that I get from that is he might either not be at he's peak now or he is riding within himself due to the fact that he is not really under pressure in this Giro.

 

Both ways’ that is not good news for he's competitors at the Tdf!!

To hit numbers like Andy and Conto did on Mont Vontoux(spelling?) you have to be right on top in terms of power to weight...stepping out onto the racers edge....

Edited May 25, 2011 by nochain

[Eldron]

Eldron,

I did not look at those VAM numbers but if you are saying that Horner had a bigger number then to me it could be because of the following.

 

Horner is at he's very peak at the moment in terms of Power to weight and won't be able to replicate that at the tour.....

We all know what kind of VAM numbers Contador is capable of at the moment and the only thing that I get from that is he might either not be at he's peak now or he is riding within himself due to the fact that he is not really under pressure in this Giro.

 

Both ways’ that is not good news for he's competitors at the Tdf!!

To hit numbers like Andy and Conto did on Mont Vontoux(spelling?) you have to be right on top in terms of power to weight...stepping out onto the racers edge....

 

The article mentioned that Horner had a slight tailwind up Baldy which may have assisted his numbers!

 

We can guess just about anything at the moment but I reckon I agree with your statement about Conty not being pushed at the Giro. Conty has only grimaced twice this Giro - once up Zoncolan and at the end of the uphill TT. I don't think he has got near his max at the Giro...chilling news for those riding the TdF indeed!

 

Horner may be able to produce bouts of high VAM but his age and racing pedigree are against him.

 

Whatever happens I hope the TdF is not a one horse race!

[nochain]

Yes,

Almost all of the stuff I have read about estimated power output for Contador on Mt Etna, suggests that he is either not giving it he's full effort or he is still not in peak condition.

He's figures for Him was not that high on the climb and he has produced better power to weight figures at last year’s Tdf.

 

So it really does look like he is not at max at the moment.

 

 

So does this mean he is that much better?or did the other riders not prepare 100%

Would love to see Nibali's figures compared to last year's Tour of Spain.

[GrumpyOldGuy]

Yes,

Almost all of the stuff I have read about estimated power output for Contador on Mt Etna, suggests that he is either not giving it he's full effort or he is still not in peak condition.

He's figures for Him was not that high on the climb and he has produced better power to weight figures at last year’s Tdf.So it really does look like he is not at max at the moment.

 

 

So does this mean he is that much better?or did the other riders not prepare 100%

Would love to see Nibali's figures compared to last year's Tour of Spain.

 

I dont know anything about these figures, but are they really that reliable.? Surely there are lots of factors which can alter these readings, anything from having a bad nights sleep to a sniffle to a tail wind to complete exhaustion.?

 

I know modern thinking is all about gadgets and computer downloads and reams of print outs, but in my opinion the athlete is still the deciding factor, I think mental stress, personal issues, a bad night sleep, just day to day worries about wife / kids / did the post get delivered all effect an athlete at this level in various ways, even if the computer says they can go harder or they were maxed out, its just an indication in my opinion, I think they all know their limits without refering to a paper download.

[Squier]

I know I said this last year and I was wrong but especially after stage 16 I cannot see Andy competing for the win at the Tour. Contador's TT this week was sublime. Yes, I know the Tour won't have a mountain time trial but still. He is just a cut above. Even if Andy sticks to him on the climbs the difference will be the TT. I can't see Andy (or anyone) breaking Contador on a climb.

 

Still, 6 weeks seems like adequate time to recover IMO but then again I don't know anything about recovery between grand tours. We'll only really know whether he recovered adequately in the third week of the Tour.

 

I know that Contador is in a league of his own but I Nibali was very dissapointing so far IMO. It's almost as if he just didn't care to follow Contador on his attacks. I expected some better form.

 

Still, exciting and gruelling racing so far. I really enjoyed the Contador show!

 

EDIT: Here I go rambling on about the Giro on the ATOC thread... sorry, wasn't paying attention. Anyway, Horner said after the race he will climb with anyone in the world. I wonder if he's been watching the Giro... Yes, the Radioshack boys are good enough to sit in the front bunch on the big climbs but I don't see them competing with Contador and Schleck on the big climbs. I'm hoping Horner and Levi would compete. Realistically though, I doubt it.

Edited May 26, 2011 by Squier