Mountain Bru

My initial thoughts are that the kiff yellow makro helmet in the background might be more valuable than the bike. Steer way clear of nonsense like this.

Pretty sure Strava is gonna try to double down on their analytics and coaching/training plan offering soon and wants to stop giving freebies to their competitors. If they have to hire developers to maintain their integrations with a million 3rd parties, they don't want to give that work to their competitors.

Can't help but wonder if the rapid decline in participation is also partly caused by the change of start and finish venue. I have no idea when the decline started, and I'm sure Covid is main factor, but I can't help but think that the new venue and associated route must play a role. Firstly, most newbies I know that ride really struggle with the climbs being predominantly backloaded in the route, which was different when the start was in Woodmead / Steyn City. Secondly, driving to Soweto is also a different experience to driving to Fourways / Woodmead. I definitely preferred picking up my race pack in the Dome rather than at Soccer City. I can't say I notice much of a difference in traffic on race day now vs at previous venues. Ironically, I think the parking and logistic struggles associated with 20 000 entrants probably played a big role in the decision to move the start/finish venue, and subsequently, I don't think they've ever had 20 000 entrants again.

COURSE_291554861.gpx I think this will be close to the route for the "70km"

Sorry to hear about the incident. Speed wobbles can have many causes from what I've read/watched. A mate of mine had a huge wobble in front of me on the descent from Bidon towards the satellite climb, but was able to hold it up and come to a stand still. We tightened the headset compression a bit (after losening the stem clamps), and he took it easy for the rest of the lap but it never happened again. From the research I did afterwards, it seemed like the culprit is sometimes not a faulty part or installation, but more a combination of factors resulting in a vibration/wobble due to triggering a natural frequency of the bike and rider system. Some solve this by descending with a knee on the top tube which dampens the vibration and changes the stiffness of the system, and therefore the natural frequency. Others just slightly lift their bum off the saddle. Pedalling also seemed sometimes to change the stiffness characteristics and prevent the wobble, as did changing weight distribution on the bike, wheel stiffness etc. My point though is that checking the headset bearings, the frame for cracks, the wheels for trueness and balance, etc are all good and definitely things you should do, but at the same time, the culprit might be something completely different, like the bike fit resulting in a lack of front end downforce, or the alu frame having too much top tube flex, or lose pivots or something. So unless you weigh the same as your son, and sit in the same position, your tests might not give you reliable results. Here's a video of a guy intentionally initiating a speed wobble, and then stopping it by just touching the handlebars and weighting the front of the bike again for reference of what I mean about a single part not being responsible.

Yip

They have a whole system to try to account for altitude and wind conditions, and then to normalise the w/kg for a 60kg rider, and then arrive at an ᵉW/Kg value, or etalon w/kg value. https://lanternerouge.com/2023/02/07/watts-primer/ I think the idea is that if you can "normalise" for conditions and for rider weights, then you can actually compare climbing performances, even though the actual W/kg value might be different to what the rider actually did.

Looks like the tour is over 🫤

Gonna be interesting to see if it comes back to hurt him. Team car is probably trying to save his legs for days like today (and stage 19 and 20) knowing how things have gone in the past, and Pogi is just an absolute bike racer and goes ball to the wall when he sniffs a win with no regard for the next days. Gotta love it, but I fear his team car might be proved right in time.

https://lanternerouge.com/2024/07/13/pogacar-possibly-does-the-greatest-performance-of-the-21st-century-tour-de-france-2024-stage-14/ "Pogačar did 6.85 ᵉW/Kg for 27:50 min, which is above the All-Time Top 30 trend-line. For sea level normalised, it is 7.16 ᵉW/Kg. Pogačar beat Lance Armstrong’s 2001 and Tony Rominger, Miguel Indurain and Zenon Jaskula’s 1993 times by around two minutes." For him to put 40s in Jonas in under 4km, either Jonas is a mug, or he emptied the tank. Or his FTP is in the thousands. Jonas didn't crack, so he didn't put that time into him while he was dawdling. If you think he does that without going deep, you must have been watching different bike races to me over the last 2 years.

Thanks. I think I need to try a few other shops rather than just the Spez guys, and maybe also try to chat with my insurer about different possibility when it comes to insured values of 2nd hand goods.

This has been my experience in the past, but now they want a proof of ownership and an evaluation.

Just preference I think. Gloves are also possibly slightly warmer, so on a hot day, it's probably nicer to not wear them. But some guys seem to just like not wearing gloves (like Pogacar) and are willing to risk their hands if they do happen to crash, but will typically only go gloveless on stages where they think the probability of crashing is low. Jonas seems to always wear gloves though, so it really is just a preference thing Pogacar yesterday - no gloves Gloves for the gravel stage - higher risk of crashing, and for comfort on rough terrain Gloves on in the stage 13 sprint stage:

First day that truly suits Jonas today. All the mind games and cryptic interviews will be out the window, and it'll only be legs talking.... Can't flippen wait. If history is anything to go by, Pogi is going to pay today for going deep yesterday. A 200km long 5000m elevation gain stage is also prime Jonas territory, and the high kJ days have typically not been good for Pogi, especially after hard days prior. Added to that, weather looks like low 20s, which is also in Jonas favour (rather than the cold which Pogi loves). If Pogi wins today, I think he wins the tour. If he fully cracks on Plateau du Beille, he'll lose minutes, and the tour is in Jonas hands. If Jonas wins by 30s, we're in for an absolutely thrilling last 3 stages with it all possibly coming down to the stage 21 time trial. Either way, I think these are special times to be a cycling fan

I seem to have run into a predicament - I need a value evaluation for my MTB to be insured, but can only seem to get a value for the equivalent new bike. For reference, I have a Spez Epic that I built up with bits and pieces from the classifieds, but it's now 4 or 5 years old, and has many miles on it (and a few crashes). If it got stolen, I'd want to get enough paid out to replace it with a similar spec bike off the classifieds. R60k would be more than enough, and would probably even allow me to upgrade. Problem is that my insurance (Naked) wants an evaluation, and my local spez dealer can only give me a price for a replacement Epic at R105000, plus a R14000 power meter. Basically, that would mean insuring my bike for more than twice it's value. If I have to do that, I'm gonna start riding in dodgey places after dark to try to donate my bike involuntarily and make a massive profit. Has anyone had a similar issue? Is it possible to insure a bike for "2nd hand replacement" value? I'm in Joburg, so if there's a LBS that anyone can recommend that can help me out, please let me know. Cheers

Can't argue with stats. I think there's a combination of factors though that lead to crashing. Positioning, reaction time, concentration, bad luck, poor decision making etc. I think with Primoz, the problem is that so often those factors suddenly all happen together. Like yesterday, he wasn't in the perfect position, and then got unlucky that Lutzenko crashed in front of him, and then seemed to react slower than the Uno X riders in front of him that he crashed over. If any one of those things didn't happen, he probably walks away fine.

Was looking for news on Roglic, and saw this: Congrats @J Wakefield 🥳

Na, ironically, I haven't considered at all that he'd crash out, which is strange knowing that Roglic tends to do Roglic things. I've just been honest about him getting dropped. If he's not injured, I think he can still get on the podium, but Bora had to soft pace him to the line, so I'm assuming he's actually far from 100%. Wouldn't be at all surprised if he DNS's tomorrow.

The man has been dropped on pretty much every climb when things heat up, and has managed to limit his losses by coming back on descents. If the climb carries on for 30 min rather than 12, I think he's gonna ship time. I hope not though. My heart wants Roglic to win, but my head says Jonas has this locked down.

Seems there's a bug and/or covid ripping through the peloton? Morkov didn't start today, Cav said because of covid. Izaguire, Renard and Declerq got off yesterday while Wright OTL'd. Bilbao abandoned today, and the rest of Bahrain looks terrible. Jakobsen has looked terrible all tour and abandoned today. Pidcock allegedly tested positive for covid too. Any news from the ground? I'm really hoping the GC battle is won by a real contender and not whoever manages to stay healthy for 3 weeks.

Losing Vlasov is a major blow for Roglic too, especially considering that Hindley has looked a bit undercooked. Not ideal for him either that Landa and Moscon have been looking great for Remco. If Roglic cracks one day, I think Landa will overtake him on GC.

Concerning UAE's tactics, I think the way they've used Yates is pretty optimal too. There haven't been any HC climbs or 30 min efforts yet, with most of the climbs only lasting 10 or 12 minutes. They use Sivakov, Almeida and Ayuso to set a hard tempo from the base to line things out and prevent attacks. Yates then takes over with 5 or 6 minutes to go, and stomps hard. This drops most of the group, and makes sure there are no domestiques left in the chase group (NB for the descent). Pogi then attacks with around 2 minutes to go to gap Jonas at the top of the climb, and then uses his descending advantage to open the gap to Jonas. Realistically, the climbs haven't been long enough to warrant full mountain trains, and at the same time, I'm not sure Almeida and Ayuso would be able to trouble Jonas, Roglic or Evenepoel if they're in the wheel, so having them pace for longer on a 12 minute climb just leaves less time for Pogi to attack. Wellens and Pollit sitting on the front all day is irrelevant in my opinion. Those guys can do 400w for the entire day without breaking a sweat, so I don't see anything wrong with the way they've used them.

I think you need to consider that Jonas and Pogi are not like-for-like GC contenders. According to PCS, Jonas is 58kg - a pure climber with a diminutive physique, and a big engine that can hold high W/kg for a long time. Basically, he's a big diesel engine in a small body, like a Nissan Champ with a 2 litre diesel. Not the most powerful or punchy engine, but the power-to-weight ratio is unbelievable. Pogi on the other hand is 66kg on PCS. He's more like an Amarok with a V6. Way heavier, but also more raw power and punch. An 8kg difference is massive. At 6.8W/kg, Jonas would be at 394w, while Pogi would need to be at 449w. So considering this, it's advantage Jonas on anything long and steep where his lower weight and ability to hold high W/kg for 30min plus come into play. But on shallower gradients where weight isn't as much of a factor, it's advantage Pogi. On short, steep gradients, it's advantage Pogi again as he has a far better punch than Jonas, and can basically just use raw power to overcome his weight disadvantage for a short time, usually to get over the top of a climb a few seconds ahead of Jonas. And then on descents, advantage Pogi again- 8kg makes a huge difference. He's taken more time on Jonas on descents than on climbs in this tour. So given their respective advantages and disadvantages, Pogi's tactics make perfect sense. He knows he'll probably lose some time to Jonas in the Pyrenees, so he's trying to build a buffer on the terrain where he has an advantage and gain bonus seconds where he can. Conversely, Jonas is trying to limit his losses on the terrain that doesn't suit him. This tour is so perfectly balanced, and it might come down to the TT on the last stage, which I think Jonas is going to smash seen as Stage 19 and 20 are stinkers, much like stage 14 and 15 last year before the Stage 16 TT where he took 1:38 on Pogi in 22km.

My 2c is that he legit bonked. If he didn't have legs, I reckon he wouldn't have hammered the Puy Mary decent as hard as he did. And he was fishing for a gel and looking for neutral service for so much of the time he was with Jonas.

Roglic deserves a hand out after all he's been through over the years.