Argus cycle tour: forecasted finishing times per seeded group

[snakesmile]

Hi all

 

A quick query. I can't seem to find this information anywhere online, although I do remember seeing it somewhere (possibly in print, in which case I'd rightly struggle to Google it).

 

Anyway, in a relatively windless 110km cycle tour, including Boyes Drive, could I get some kind of perspective on what you reckon the various seeded group finishing times will be?

 

Which groups will likely ride sub-3? And sub-4? And sub-5?

 

I'm in V starting at 07h25 and feeling quite strong. Gunning for my fastest yet but I don't wanna build expectations too high, and I'm trying to figure what might be realistic.

 

I realise that this could easily all be thrown out the window due to a variety of (largley) uncontrollables like wind, rain, heat, crashing, mechanical failure, etc.

 

Hoping you have some valuable thoughts!

[Spat]

You can check group winning times on Racetec webiste, just check at the bottom for previous years, you would probably have to look at 2008 for windless weather.

 

Dont think there is a year with the 110 route and windless with Boys in existence.

[LeTurbo]

Hoping you have some valuable thoughts!

 

'Fraid you've come to the wrong place then, Snakesmile. This is The Hub.

[Teardrop]

Dont aim for a time, ride on the day to the best of your abilities. No wind = possibility of a good time!

[cat-i]

get there early so that you can start at the front-ish of your bunch, enjoy & good luck!

[snakesmile]

thanks guys, super helpful as always.

 

anyone starting in V? if you are keen to push hard and try do some damage on sunday, catch me in the ugliest kit in the tour (orange sleeveless top) on an RC7000 and we can attempt a vibe

 

good luck all!

[Gman1834]

You only need two thing to calculate your estimated time:

 

winner time: WT

your seeding: YS

 

 

estimated time= (100*WT)/(100-YS)

 

Have fun.

[Tubehunter]

Unless you are super strong it's almost impossible to time trial the route on your own faster than you would if you 'team' up with 5 plus other chaps taking turns pulling and recovering. Quite difficult to organise a few chaps to have a co-ordinated effort like this when you are a bunch of strangers out there on the start line, but you will work out who the stronger chaps are and who the wheelsuckers are by the time you are on the Blue Route, especially if there is any wind about. Even then you want to get the balance of riding at the fastest pace for the FULL distance. Over the years have seen far too many chaps committing to riding a sub 3 pace only to completely blow up before Chappies and labour home giving up plenty time in the struggle to get to the finish. This is not an enjoyable ride and I've been victim to this stunt myself twice. (Yes, yes, some mistakes are so crazy, you need to make them twice!)

 

Rather aim to finish in the front 2% of the group this year, ensuring a FAR better seeding for next year and then use that to get the PB and move up to hopefully repeat the process! The front 2% of V will probably have a similar finish time to chaps finishing 95% of the way through the A, B and C groups! Same strategy the following year will net a MUCH faster time as the strength of the group is so much better and so the value of a good seeding becomes more relevant to a decent time.

 

Good luck!

[stratus5]

You only need two thing to calculate your estimated time:

 

winner time: WT

your seeding: YS

 

 

estimated time= (100*WT)/(100-YS)

 

Have fun.

 

 

Something like this... Take your average seeding % from recent rides. Ignore the PPA delta's and ghost rider crap.

 

For example in the 99er I did a 3:04. So my seeding would be (184/162) - 1 = 13.6% Winner did 2:42 = 162 minutes

 

Assuming the winner this year is 2:30 then you need to be an F (20%) or better seeding to break 3 hours

 

Winners time (hr:min) Your Seeding Your Time (min) Your Time (hr.min) 2.30 0.10 165.00 2.45 2.30 0.12 168.00 2.48 2.30 0.14 171.00 2.51 2.30 0.16 174.00 2.54 2.30 0.18 177.00 2.57 2.30 0.20 180.00 3.00 2.30 0.22 183.00 3.03 2.30 0.24 186.00 3.06 2.30 0.26 189.00 3.09 2.30 0.28 192.00 3.12 2.30 0.30 195.00 3.15 2.30 0.32 198.00 3.18 2.30 0.34 201.00 3.21

[stratus5]

Something like this... Take your average seeding % from recent rides. Ignore the PPA delta's and ghost rider crap.

 

For example in the 99er I did a 3:04. So my seeding would be (184/162) - 1 = 13.6% Winner did 2:42 = 162 minutes

 

Assuming the winner this year is 2:30 then you need to be an F (20%) or better seeding to break 3 hours

 

Winners time (hr:min) Your Seeding Your Time (min) Your Time (hr.min) 2.30 0.10 165.00 2.45 2.30 0.12 168.00 2.48 2.30 0.14 171.00 2.51 2.30 0.16 174.00 2.54 2.30 0.18 177.00 2.57 2.30 0.20 180.00 3.00 2.30 0.22 183.00 3.03 2.30 0.24 186.00 3.06 2.30 0.26 189.00 3.09 2.30 0.28 192.00 3.12 2.30 0.30 195.00 3.15 2.30 0.32 198.00 3.18 2.30 0.34 201.00 3.21

 

That didn't work so well. Try with picture instead:

[Showtime]

thanks guys, super helpful as always.

 

anyone starting in V? if you are keen to push hard and try do some damage on sunday, catch me in the ugliest kit in the tour (orange sleeveless top) on an RC7000 and we can attempt a vibe

 

good luck all!

I'll be there in V as well, trying to hang around the front of the group and do some work. I'll watch out for the orange wife beater shirt but keep my distance

[janneman72]

I'm in U and will be trying for a sub 3:15.....