Giro d'Italia 2012

[GrumpyOldGuy]

I think its going to come down to Scarponi or Basso in the high mountains.

 

Would like to see Basso surprise everyone, not sure if he is keeping his cards close to his chest and has something in reserve of whether he is pretty much at his limit already.

 

Yeah, think so as well. I dont think Hesjedal will keep up in the long steep mountain passes and Rodriguez is also unlikely to be there, he has a bit of a buffer but I think it will start to be eaten into from today onward.

 

Basso is able to grind away on the big mountains which may be to his favor but I think the minute he loses Szmyd they will attack him explosively and he cant respond to that, if he can control with Szmyd on the latter stages I think he will win, it will be dead boring but I guess thats not important to him.

[Guest Omega Man]

Bit of an active rest day in the peleton today, not much of consequence happened and I dozed through most of it.

 

One thing I have to say is the scenery is spectacular, I have traveled a lot in Italy but some of those small towns are just magnificent. Those awe inspiring cathedrals perched high on the cliff overlooking those old towns with small squares and narrow cobbled streets are right up my alley. I think I could quite easily spend my latter years there sipping a good espresso under a red umbrella with only the odd car passing through every now and then.

 

Idyllic!!.

 

I feel EXACTLY the same as you. Europe has such beauty. I love watching the road racing over there cos of the stunning scenery. The TDF has got to be one of France's top tourist lures.

[GrumpyOldGuy]

GOG, you summed up the Leaky Gas tactics very well.

To describe it as negative... Unfair comment.

 

Here's why:

They are riding to their strengths. It's racing strategy.

If any other team want to seize initiative and share the workload up front or breat from the front then let them, IF that's their strategy.

 

On another note, I think Rodriguez might have done enough. Hmmm...

Just dunno how much support he has from his team in the high mountains.

 

Hesjedal might yet surprise if you consider the 31 km TT that is at the end.

He looks like a good TTer if he is still in touch with the GC top end after the Dolomites.

 

Hmm, I dunno, I think its negative racing as it stifles the entire stage. Basso learnt well from LA and US Postal as thats exactly what they did, the only difference was LA poked his head out into the wind occasionally and made a break for it, Basso has not and sometimes I wonder if he can. Boring racing in my opinion.

 

On another note I think Szmyd could have been a contender here if he wasn't riding defensively for Basso, if I was him I would be having a chat to Nibs and Astana for next season, he is a much better rider than he is been given worth here.

['Dale]

Hmm, I dunno, I think its negative racing as it stifles the entire stage. Basso learnt well from LA and US Postal as thats exactly what they did, the only difference was LA poked his head out into the wind occasionally and made a break for it, Basso has not and sometimes I wonder if he can. Boring racing in my opinion.

 

On another note I think Szmyd could have been a contender here if he wasn't riding defensively for Basso, if I was him I would be having a chat to Nibs and Astana for next season, he is a much better rider than he is been given worth here.

 

Yeah, Szmyd is sure looking strong.

Interesting dynamics in the LG team as Nibs will most prob roll to Astana next season.

Nibs - out.

Sagan - in.

Basso - in.

[JimmyB]

Hesjedal is incredible on this downhill....

[JimmyB]

Purito going to win this. Has wheel sucked the whole race....

[JimmyB]

Impey didn't start today. Is he resting for a big race in July???

[Cav']

1 Joaquim Rodriguez Oliver (Spa) Katusha Team 5:24:42 2 Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale 3 Ryder Hesjedal (Can) Garmin - Barracuda 4 Rigoberto Uran Uran (Col) Sky Procycling 5 Michele Scarponi (Ita) Lampre - ISD 6 Domenico Pozzovivo (Ita) Colnago - CSF Inox 0:00:02 7 Benat Intxausti Elorriaga (Spa) Movistar Team 0:01:22 8 Daniel Moreno Fernandez (Spa) Katusha Team 9 Thomas De Gendt (Bel) Vacansoleil-DCM Pro Cycling Team 10 Johann Tschopp (Swi) BMC Racing Team 11 John Gadret (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 12 Mikel Nieve Ituralde (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 13 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre - ISD

[Cav']

An excellent stage

 

I think it really seperate those who are genuinely in contention from those who are good but not really there and then the rest.

 

So it appears it is down to 5 or 6 who can win. The first group over the line.

 

Scarponi though being dropped at the top of the climb is a bad sign, although it seemed he would get back easily on the descent until he appeared to cramp, lost a lot of ground, started making it up again, lost time again before motoring down the final bit of the climb to catch up very quickly. There was wondering about who the best descender amongst the front group was in the shout box and I think Scarponi showed that he is the best descender of that group. However if he gets dropped on climbs in the coming days being the best descender is not going to help him much although being the best TTer might help.

 

Basso looked good, not great, but good. However I think he is going to have to do more on stages 19 and 20 or he will not win the Giro.

 

Rodriguez has done nothing wrong and an awful lot right so far, adding a stage win as well. Still there is question marks about whether he can do it for two more mountain stages. He did seem to be hanging in there on the climb today not taking a positive role at all. Does he have enough time to hold on to the pink jersey in the TT if nothing much changes? I do not think so, however the chances of nothing much changing is extremely slim given the punishment that will come.

 

Pozzovivo was probably the strongest on the climb today accelerating at the top to drop Scarponi and Uran and if he is the strongest climber then time might very well come on stages 19 and 20, and he still needs time. His TTing will mean he cannot win the Giro without gaining time on everyone.

 

Hesjedal though is in an excellent position, looking very strong and even attacking and being the best TTer of those in contention he has a big advantage. The others need to drop him and put time into him and not 10 or 20 seconds but a minute or two. However he is a surprise to be right up there and I still have real doubts he can be right there during stages 19 and 20. He has not really done anything wrong and if keeps that up he will win the Giro as surprising as that result would be.

 

Uran was also right up there today but I don't really see him as a contender, he was dropped on the final climb in stage 15 and also today although it was right up the top of the climb.

 

Kreuziger was the biggest loser today, not sure what went wrong. Although I do not rate him a real GT contender he usaully is a very consistent rider who I felt would make the top ten comfortably but not really challenge for much higher. Finishing over 11 minutes down would not have happened without something going very wrong.

[GrumpyOldGuy]

Yeah, great stage.

 

I think Kreuziger bonked badly, his mates were trying to give him food but I dont think he was compis mentis as he just ignored it for a while, the sweat was literally running off him, he was really in a bad way.

 

I dont think Scarponi was in too much trouble, Pozzovivo upped the pace dramatically and they were all in difficulty, I just think Scarponi struggled with the change in pace for a few seconds or maybe he slowed as he felt he was starting to cramp, certainly on the descent he was massaging his thighs, but he is a professional and knows what he can do, he didnt panic and recovered enough to do a bit of a lunatic descent over the final 8kms and he hitched on quite easily. He even contested the sprint, so I dont think he has any issues, these things happen, cramps, food bonk, dehydration but its how they handle it and stay in contention that matters and Scarpo did brilliantly.

 

Agree that Basso looked comfortable, but I think Pozzovivo is the danger man now, he sat there comfortable as anything and could up and down his pace easily, a true climber and with the mountain stages to come he could be the one to watch.

 

Rodriguez..........well what can you say, the guy is brilliant when he is on form like now, and you are never going to beat him in a sprint.

 

I still rate Scarponi as a podium finisher but I think little Pozzovivo is going to stir the pot dramatically.

[GrumpyOldGuy]

Hmm, I see Rodriguez is saying unless he can get three minutes on Hesjedal over the next two days in the mountains Hesjedal will win the Giro. Basso also recons he needs 1.30 over Hesjedal to win, obviously as he is the best TT proponent amongst them.

 

What worries me is the three climbers Basso, Scarponi and Rodriguez seem to be betting everything on the last two big mountain stages to get rid of Hesjedal but no-one is talking about the little Pozzivivo who I think can take three minutes on them alone, he will lose a lot of time in the TT but he looks absolutely superb on the mountains.

 

Hesjedal has certainly made everyone, especially all the big names take another look at him, I dont think many expected him to still be there, certainly I didnt.

[nickc]

^{Go Basso and Leaky Gas, you are right Grumpy he is looking comfortable but I think we are in for a few surprises still!!}

[JimmyB]

 

Hesjedal has certainly made everyone, especially all the big names take another look at him, I dont think many expected him to still be there, certainly I didnt.

 

Agreed. I thought he looked a little uncomfortable on the last climb at times but he is a tall guy so when he leans over the bars he touches the wheel.

 

In 2010 Hesjedal was over 2 minutes behind Rodriguez on the morning of the ITT and he ended the day ahead of Rodriguez by almost a minute... Going to be interesting to see where the race goes tomorrow and Sat.

[Cav']

The odds that the GC pack drop Hesjedal on the next two stage are quite big imo.

If by some miracle he hangs onto their wheels - He'll take pink

[petatodd]

At last, another day for my boy. These hills are too hard. They exhaust him.

[Cav']

At last, another day for my boy. These hills are too hard. They exhaust him.

Seeing that most of the other sprinters has abandoned - Cav will take it hands down.