New Zealand - The Good, The Bad and The Ugly.

[intern]

In a previous life when I was single and liquid (cash wise), about 2000 or so, if any of yous is old enough to remember back that far, tech stocks were flying.

 

I had some cash in the bank and some time on my hands - so I figured, 'hey drop half your cash into some of these tech stocks, take the rest, buy a round-the-world ticket, you can monitor them on-line, what could go wrong?'

 

So did that.

 

About Cambodia time, where internet speeds were so slow that logging on to websites was a time consuming and frustrating affair, I thought 'Fk it' and left them be.  They all looked fine.

 

Couple of months later, after making a pit stop to see the folks in SA, I rock back to the UK, log on... strange, I'm sure that the companies were called "Blah" and "Blah2" (and...)

 

Can't seem to find them, maybe I'm misremembering the stock codes.  This was in the day when they sent you stock certificates when you bought stock, went dug them out, nope, the stock codes were right.

 

They were gone.  Just gone. Closed down, keep your cert, have fun.  Was a bit of an eye opener.  So had to sell the ones that had done well (as in still existed!) to get liquid again.

 

Still got the certs, somewhere.  Magic Moments (yes) was one of them I think, a gaming company if I remember right. 

 

I was just getting started in the tech industry in those heady days. I remember the panicked look in the eyes of DD shareholders...

[davetapson]

I was just getting started in the tech industry in those heady days. I remember the panicked look in the eyes of DD shareholders...

 

So @Intern, as someone who is playing the covid wave, what is your stab as to when a good time to start looking for property?

 

I'm figuring that we need to wait for the subsidies to stop, the mortgage holiday to stop, Christmas to eat up the last drops in the tank and Jan/Feb will tell us the future.

 

You got a view on this?

 

I'm thinking your view is longer term, probably closer to a year or two in the future?

 

[Rocket-Boy]

I was just getting started in the tech industry in those heady days. I remember the panicked look in the eyes of DD shareholders...

Was that at the time they de-listed from the JSE?

[intern]

So @Intern, as someone who is playing the covid wave, what is your stab as to when a good time to start looking for property?

 

I'm figuring that we need to wait for the subsidies to stop, the mortgage holiday to stop, Christmas to eat up the last drops in the tank and Jan/Feb will tell us the future.

 

You got a view on this?

 

I'm thinking your view is longer term, probably closer to a year or two in the future?

 

 

My view is totally keep the hell away because I can't see the market sustaining itself with our biggest industry gone, immigration gone, and hundreds of thousands of unemployed in the wings. This is why I have reluctantly sold my house ahead of what I believe will be quite substantial pain. You're absolutely right, my view is a year or 2 into the future, totally derisked, with about 20 percent cash in the share market so I have plenty of liquidity.

Please bear in mind though, most of my theories are half baked and therefore should never be taken as serious advice but rather treated as anecdotes from a know it all who knows blow all. I've been wrong plenty in the past and I may well be wrong now...apparently the market is going gangbusters, but that is beyond my comprehension so I am going to hold tight and wait it out on the supposition that the only risk I face now is the risk of losing out on hypothetical gain, so it isn't a tangible loss per se should I prove mistaken 

[intern]

Was that at the time they de-listed from the JSE?

 

This was the time the shares plummeted from above R70 to just R2 - around 2001-2002. Delisted from JSE in 2010 and went to the LSE...

[davetapson]

Still wrassling with 'is this a bad time to buy property thing'

We've found a house that we can live with, in an area we can live with... but wondering, is this peak property price time?  It would seem like it, but who knows... I rented a flat in London when I first arrived in 1997 and the agent told me 'you shouldn't be renting, you should buy, but not just now, property is a bit expensive.'

Property prices proceeded to rise in a straight line and that same flat was probably worth three times the price I could have got it for by the time I left the UK.

We're paying $830/wk = $43160/yr rent.  It seems to me that even if the price drops 10% over the next two years, we'd have paid just about that much anyway in rent, and will have the first two years of bond payments done.

Is this thinking straight?

[davetapson]

Damn - just watched a property we'd've offered 1 - 1.1 just go for 1.388M.

Houses in Rangi/Westlake school zones just frggn ridiculous.

[patches]

Still wrassling with 'is this a bad time to buy property thing'

 

We've found a house that we can live with, in an area we can live with... but wondering, is this peak property price time?  It would seem like it, but who knows... I rented a flat in London when I first arrived in 1997 and the agent told me 'you shouldn't be renting, you should buy, but not just now, property is a bit expensive.'

 

Property prices proceeded to rise in a straight line and that same flat was probably worth three times the price I could have got it for by the time I left the UK.

 

We're paying $830/wk = $43160/yr rent.  It seems to me that even if the price drops 10% over the next two years, we'd have paid just about that much anyway in rent, and will have the first two years of bond payments done.

 

Is this thinking straight?

 

As someone with very limited economic or property investment knowledge, but by virtue of the fact that I have facebook and instagram and therefore find myself fully qualified to answer this...

 

Just kidding... I'm crap with instagram

 

But yeah, first time buyer (in any country) about 18months ago. I thought the prices were pretty much peaked, as as the Auckland 2012-16 boom had already taken its toll. Managed to get the house for $5000 under CV (which I thought wasn't bad considering CV's were 2yrs old at the time).

 

Watched eagerly around the area as houses were listed and sold. One was sold twice within that 18 month period, and it was done up before the first sale. The second seller sold for 10% more than they paid.

 

Then just last week I saw an article on a house 3 streets over. Simple little 3 bed, 1 bath, 600sqm freehold. Decent condition, but nothing fancy... BOOM! over $1.565m. That's $265k (20%+) over CV.

 

So despite very real economic challenges, Auckland property seems to be on the up-and-up (at least for now).

 

Factors like an increase in returning professionals and a supply shortage could have bearing on this. I'm no expert.

 

All I know is that 18 months ago I thought I bought at the worst time ever, and now looking back I feel lucky.

[patches]

Damn - just watched a property we'd've offered 1 - 1.1 just go for 1.388M.

 

Houses in Rangi/Westlake school zones just frggn ridiculous.

 

Yup! pretty much the exact area referred to in my previous post. In fact the house used as an example is 750m walk to Westlake Boys and 850m to Westlake Girls. (I'm just over double that, but still pretty close).

 

One of the guys I work with just bought a house in Forest Hill and listed his house in Glenfield, purely because of the Westlake zoning, and his son going to highschool next year. I think he's still in shock by how much the price jumps just based on that imaginary zoning line.

[patches]

Damn - just watched a property we'd've offered 1 - 1.1 just go for 1.388M.

 

Houses in Rangi/Westlake school zones just frggn ridiculous.

 

Maybe now is a good time for me to implement my 5-8yr plan.

 

Sell up in Auckland. Buy down on the South Island for half the price. Have a fraction of the mortgage.

 

 

...Wanna buy a house? 

[davetapson]

All I know is that 18 months ago I thought I bought at the worst time ever, and now looking back I feel lucky.

 

You've bought a gold mine.  You auction that house, someone will keep sticking their finger up no matter what...

 

The 1.338M house cv was 1.160M, but it was real old and tired and smelled of incontinence.  Edit: and 6 feet from Beach Road. 

 

So call it another 100k to make it habitable...

Edited September 10, 2020 by davetapson

[davetapson]

Maybe now is a good time for me to implement my 5-8yr plan.

 

Sell up in Auckland. Buy down on the South Island for half the price. Have a fraction of the mortgage.

 

 

...Wanna buy a house? 

Is it in Westlake zone...? 

 

I suspect extremely very strongly my kids are destined for Long Bay College.

 

Personally, I'd prefer Orewa College and one of those possies along the beach, but seems as the other members of my family are not fully convinced.

 

Even better, I found a piece of ground along the banks of the Waiwera river, but that was even less convincing apparently.

 

A bar buys you a whole bunch as soon as you are out of commuter distance.

Edited September 10, 2020 by davetapson

[patches]

Is it in Westlake zone...? 

 

I suspect exremely very strongly my kids are destined for Long Bay College.

 

Personally, I'd prefer Orewa College and one of those possies along the beach, but, uh, married life and all that.

 

Sure as heck is 1.5km walk to the girls school. 1.9km walk to the boys school!

 

As for Orewa and Silverdale etc... I drove out that way to fetch the track saw I bought off a builder on TradeMe... Such a nice clean neat area. I'm a big fan! My work commute would be torturous, but there's plenty of series to watch on the bus (also nearly-married life and all that, hahaha)

[patches]

Is it in Westlake zone...? 

 

I suspect extremely very strongly my kids are destined for Long Bay College.

 

Personally, I'd prefer Orewa College and one of those possies along the beach, but seems as the other members of my family are not fully convinced.

 

Even better, I found a piece of ground along the banks of the Waiwera river, but that was even less convincing apparently.

 

A bar buys you a whole bunch as soon as you are out of commuter distance.

 

Longbay though... can't go wrong with that. Sure it seems far, but the busway is being upgraded. And the suburb is nice, new, thought out, the regional park is awesome, and one's money goes a LOT further out that way. I have some really good friends that bought there a few years back and they love it.

 

And waiwera... well you should see what 1 -1.25 bar out Puhoi way will get ya! Beautuful houses on amazing hilltops with vast blocks of land! But yeah... may take a LOT of convincing

Edited September 10, 2020 by patches

[davetapson]

The Good: just bought my daughter a Suzuki Swift, $4k, paid, rego changed, insured, all online, all in about 15mins, all in the comfort of this chair.  As has been mentioned before.

Also, nice, decent, straight forward people to deal with.

Edit: I lie, it was probably less than 10 mins.

Edited September 10, 2020 by davetapson

[Steven Knoetze (sk27)]

The Good: just bought my daughter a Suzuki Swift, $4k, paid, rego changed, insured, all online, all in about 15mins, all in the comfort of this chair.  As has been mentioned before.

 

Also, nice, decent, straight forward people to deal with.

 

Edit: I lie, it was probably less than 10 mins.

 

Who did you use Dave?