New Zealand - The Good, The Bad and The Ugly.

[Steven Knoetze (sk27)]

At least the weather is better for this lock down.

 

Start of lock down last year was 6 weeks of absolutely perfect weather.

 

I am obviously of a biased opinion, but I would say the Covid strategy is not really working.

Yes the numbers are low and deaths are being curbed but it will not stop a virus. 

I saw an article yesterday where they have conducted studies on blood donors in SA, testing for anti-bodies, and using the data they can confirm that at least 50% of RSA's population has had Covid. That puts the recovery numbers into a better perspective.

[davetapson]

I would say the Covid strategy is not really working.

In what way do you think it's not really working?

[Steven Knoetze (sk27)]

In what way do you think it's not really working?

 

I suppose I see it from the perspective that you are saving lives but at what future expense.

By all accounts the vaccines seem to be doing very little.

Your borders will need to open at some point in time or the country faces financial ruin due to their dependency on migrants.

So I suppose my bigger question is what is the long term strategy?

Perhaps my bias is creeping in but that is understandable I would think.

[davetapson]

 

 

By all accounts the vaccines seem to be doing very little.

I suppose the next question is, outside of South Africa which bought a vaccine that is not particularly effective against the SA version of Covid, why do you think this?

 

My understanding is that they are going to buy the J&J version which will be effective?

 

I'll answer your broader question, but want to know where you are coming from first.

[Wayne Potgieter]

 

Your borders will need to open at some point in time or the country faces financial ruin due to their dependency on migrants.

 

with all due respect, this is an assumption.

[Steven Knoetze (sk27)]

I suppose the next question is, outside of South Africa which bought a vaccine that is not particularly effective against the SA version of Covid, why do you think this?

 

My understanding is that they are going to buy the J&J version which will be effective?

 

I'll answer your broader question, but want to know where you are coming from first.

 

I can only go off of information in the media where it would appear that most countries are having issues with the side affects and related deaths with the vaccines.

I think will go off topic very quickly because it comes down to personal opinions on the virus itself, the "pandemic" and how it is being handled.

 

with all due respect, this is an assumption.

 

I 100% agree, an educated assumption though, given the information out there. Some of which does need to be taken with a pinch of salt I will say 

 

That being said it has been widely documented that the farming community, for one, is struggling without their seasonal workers.

I know personally of a company unable to complete their scope of work, yet skilled labour is unable to enter the country to assist. This company does work in healthcare facilities, MIQ facilities, etc, so directly linked to preventing and fighting outbreaks........

Edited February 16, 2021 by Steven Knoetze (sk27)

[davetapson]

So here is my understanding, and you can take it from where it comes:

1. the NZ economy is doing way better than anyone expected.  Tony Alexander, who is a respected economist here, says that it is probably due to the cash that normally gets spent out of the country on overseas travel being spent in NZ.  

The economy is buzzing along ok, albeit with some uncertainty in sectors, but nothing like anywhere else in the world.

Property prices have gone ballistic.  Houses are currently selling at 50%+ premium over where they were 6 months or so ago.  More fool us, we put off buying a property, waiting for the 'Covid induced economic slump' hahhahahahahhahahahahahhaha.  Houses we could have bought then are now completely and utterly out of our reach.  Adequate 4 bed house on the North Shore is going to cost you the best part of R20M.  A pile of unlivable junk went for R12M third quarter of last year, and will have gone up in value since then. 

2. there are issues, for sure, but not systemic.  The parts of the economy hit the hardest are also, for want of a better word, the most liquid.  A lot of the tourism is based on mom and pop operators and youngsters or less-settled folk. So that they are in distress, although not great for them, is of little consequence to the economy. 

3. I'm going to assume that the vaccines will be predominantly effective.  My wife is a doctor and nothing that we have heard from the medical side of things rings any alarm bells regarding the vaccines. 

At worst they might not work if they are not effective against whatever strain of virus is around, but you're not going to grow another arm or head. 

I personally assume that the vaccine we will get will work, and if not, they will get one that does.  They're pretty pragmatic about stuff here.

I've got family in the States, most of them have been vaccinated, no one has any issues or concerns.

4. Vaccines have landed here, we're waiting for the roll-out.  I would expect that once we are all (largely all?) vaccinated, and they have some proof that the population is protected against the virus, they will open the borders.  I was going to say 'and life will be back to how we know it' but prior to this little lockdown, we've pretty much been living life as we know it anyway.

There may well be fits and starts and bumps along the way, but that's how life works.

We've lost friends in SA, and the docs on the E. Rand where we came from have been hammered - there have been an number of deaths, including a partner at one of the clinics my worked at when we returned from the UK, or folk left effectively crippled. 

Given the choice of that, or this, there's no question as to which I would prefer.

 

[Steven Knoetze (sk27)]

So here is my understanding, and you can take it from where it comes:

1. the NZ economy is doing way better than anyone expected.  Tony Alexander, who is a respected economist here, says that it is probably due to the cash that normally gets spent out of the country on overseas travel being spent in NZ.  

 

The economy is buzzing along ok, albeit with some uncertainty in sectors, but nothing like anywhere else in the world.

 

Property prices have gone ballistic.  Houses are currently selling at 50%+ premium over where they were 6 months or so ago.  More fool us, we put off buying a property, waiting for the 'Covid induced economic slump' hahhahahahahhahahahahahhaha.  Houses we could have bought then are now completely and utterly out of our reach.  Adequate 4 bed house on the North Shore is going to cost you the best part of R20M.  A pile of unlivable junk went for R12M third quarter of last year, and will have gone up in value since then. 

 

2. there are issues, for sure, but not systemic.  The parts of the economy hit the hardest are also, for want of a better word, the most liquid.  A lot of the tourism is based on mom and pop operators and youngsters or less-settled folk. So that they are in distress, although not great for them, is of little consequence to the economy. 

 

3. I'm going to assume that the vaccines will be predominantly effective.  My wife is a doctor and nothing that we have heard from the medical side of things rings any alarm bells regarding the vaccines. 

 

At worst they might not work if they are not effective against whatever strain of virus is around, but you're not going to grow another arm or head. 

 

I personally assume that the vaccine we will get will work, and if not, they will get one that does.  They're pretty pragmatic about stuff here.

 

I've got family in the States, most of them have been vaccinated, no one has any issues or concerns.

 

4. Vaccines have landed here, we're waiting for the roll-out.  I would expect that once we are all (largely all?) vaccinated, and they have some proof that the population is protected against the virus, they will open the borders.  I was going to say 'and life will be back to how we know it' but prior to this little lockdown, we've pretty much been living life as we know it anyway.

 

There may well be fits and starts and bumps along the way, but that's how life works.

 

We've lost friends in SA, and the docs on the E. Rand where we came from have been hammered - there have been an number of deaths, including a partner at one of the clinics my worked at when we returned from the UK, or folk left effectively crippled. 

 

Given the choice of that, or this, there's no question as to which I would prefer.

 

 

 

Really nice read, and I understand fully where you are coming from.

 

The housing market is very scary but I think in general there seems to be a move away from people wanting to own property, at least the younger generation who lease cars for example. It will be a number of years before we will be in ay position to purchase a property, but we will work towards it.

I do believe there is some disinformation around the vaccines. I believe that many people think it will make them immune or not able to transmit and this is very dangerous.

Other than that, I am on the same page as you. Strange times we live in......

[patches]

Regarding housing affordability, I was recently reading this article (and showing my partner as I tried once again to convince her that Chch is where it's at   )

 

Disclaimer: these house prices are pre-covid boom

 

 

I know the article is from over a year ago, and housing prices have gone mental since then, but it had me thinking once again about how a higher disposable income is not mutually exclusive to the higher salaries that a big city (like Auckland) brings.

[davetapson]

Regarding housing affordability, I was recently reading this article (and showing my partner as I tried once again to convince her that Chch is where it's at   )

 

Disclaimer: these house prices are pre-covid boom

 

 

I know the article is from over a year ago, and housing prices have gone mental since then, but it had me thinking once again about how a higher disposable income is not mutually exclusive to the higher salaries that a big city (like Auckland) brings.

Interesting that Tauranga is least affordable in terms of salary vs price.  We've thought about moving there or Napier for affordability reasons (PS. not really, our kids are just settling in here and we're loathe to move which makes things difficult).

[hayleyearth]

Interesting that Tauranga is least affordable in terms of salary vs price. We've thought about moving there or Napier for affordability reasons (PS. not really, our kids are just settling in here and we're loathe to move which makes things difficult).

I was in Napier area over Christmas/New years.... Don't do that too your kids! Rather choose Tauranga if you have to.

 

Property there is a hit or miss at the moment thought, had different friends bought down there there last few months, some got a deal, others not at all I'd say.

[patches]

Interesting that Tauranga is least affordable in terms of salary vs price.  We've thought about moving there or Napier for affordability reasons (PS. not really, our kids are just settling in here and we're loathe to move which makes things difficult).

 

 

 

I was in Napier area over Christmas/New years.... Don't do that too your kids! Rather choose Tauranga if you have to.

 

Property there is a hit or miss at the moment thought, had different friends bought down there there last few months, some got a deal, others not at all I'd say.

 

Napier "city" (really a town) is meh (I don't think art deco is as great as it's made out to be).

 

Hastings is apparently dodgy (I've only passed through).

 

However, Havelock North (a suburb of Hastings) is rather nice. I stayed in an AirBnB there over New Years and the neighborhood was great!

 

That said, my requirement/desire to be within 1hr drive of an international airport excludes the Hawkes Bay are from my "Escape Auckland in the next 5yrs" list

Edited February 16, 2021 by patches

[davetapson]

Napier "city" (really a town) is meh (I don't think art deco is as great as it's made out to be).

 

Hastings is apparently dodgy (I've only passed through).

 

However, Havelock North (a suburb of Hastings) is rather nice. I stayed in an AirBnB there over New Years and the neighborhood was great!

 

That said, my requirement/desire to be within 1hr drive of an international airport excludes the Hawkes Bay are from my "Escape Auckland in the next 5yrs" list

Havelock North is actually where we would end up - just didn't know anyone knew of it!  It is a nice little dorpie.

 

One thing I find is that after the Hauraki Gulf, the coast around that area is pretty bleak.

 

Edit: dunno if anyone has ridden Te Mata peak?  I took a blue run off the peak and crapped myself.  There are some places there you can die.  Or so I think, anyway!

Edited February 16, 2021 by davetapson

[patches]

Whilst browsing TradeMe I came across this and it made me chuckle (schadenfreude alert)

 

So having no clue as to what a used G63 goes for, I thought "that's a lot of money, but maybe reasonable" (not that I'm in the market).

 

Then I saw this...

 

 

So $150,000 for a written off G-class. I thought, that's pretty mental. Are the spares really worth that much? Is it salvageable?

 

But then I got curious as to why someone is trying to sell a written off G-glass. Surely that's insurances' problem...

 

 

So this idiot paid THREE HUNDRED AND THIRTY THOUSAND DOLLARS for a car, waited 2 years for it, then wrote it off on a post (so driver error), within 2 months.

 

PLUS

 

Hadn't bothered to insure it!

 

:lol:

 

How can anyone feel sorry for them!

Goes to show that there is more money than sense flowing around NZ.

Edited February 18, 2021 by patches

[davetapson]

Dang!

On a very much smaller and within my budget scale - a guy across the road from us had his red Jeep Cherokee for sale for $2.5k.  Being newly arrived, it was about what I could afford as a second car, but it had some pin-hole rust in a door that stayed my hand - but I was considering it.

Next thing I see it's been sold in Trademe - with front end damage where he'd chucked it into the bush somehow! $1 starting bid I think

Was on for one day and went for $300!!  I think he was too embarrassed to have it in there any longer...


Speaking of Christchurch, Tony Alexander's comment after talking up Auckland (it's where everyone comes) and down Wellington (sewerage and water infrastructure breaking down, hopefully not too close to each other):

"There is however another element in play for which I still remain extremely uncertain about timewise but could be closer to happening than obvious at first glance.

 

Christchurch is getting better. Challenges remain for sure with the image of the CBD. But restoration of the Cathedral is advancing, the motorway system (I think) is done, and feedback in this month’s Business Survey reveals some firming business demand for leases in the CBD.

 

As put to me recently on a visit there, a lot of the premises which businesses moved into in the suburbs following the 2011 earthquake are due for renovating. Many occupants are deciding it is easier to hop into a new location back in the city rather than work around or seek out an upgraded place still in their post-earthquake location. "

So @patches, you better buy your possie there pronto...

[Steven Knoetze (sk27)]

How does the car market work there, btw.
I see a vehicle must have a WOF and then you pay registration per year.
I believe the WOF must be renewed yearly, or 2 yearly if it is a new car. So similar to a UK MOT then?
I also heard you don't get the actual papers, it is held on the system. Is this true?