2016 Dubai Tour (3-6 Feb)

[Cav']

From 3 to 6 February, the four-day race will take in Dubai's most famous landmarks and attract riders from all five continents, with three stages best suited to the sprinters and one to the puncheurs.

Dubai Tour is only in its third year – the first edition having been won by the American Taylor Phinney, and last year’s race by the Manxman Mark Cavendish – but is already considered a classic in the early cycling calendar due the mild weather and the superb facilities. It’s more than ‘just’ a big name: for many riders Dubai represents the perfect opening to the season.

 

Indeed the big news for the 2016 Dubai Tour is that the finish of stage 1 – Fujairah Stage – is in another Emirate country, Fujairah. Landmarks of the east coast settlement are the beautiful coastline, the oldest mosque in the UAE (Al-Bidyah Mosque), the charming fortresses (Fujairah Fort, Bithnah Fort and Al-Hayl Castle), the amazing Sheikh Zayed Mosque and the Al Hajar Mountains, the highest mountain range in the eastern Arabian peninsula.

The other stages include major features of Dubai: Nakheel Stage (stage 2) will finish at the celebrated Palm Jumeirah, in front of the Atlantis Hotel; The Westin Stage (stage 3) will end uphill, beside the turquoise waters of Hatta Dam; Burj Stage (stage 4) is the grand finale at the foot of the colossal Burj Khalifa.

 

The list of participating teams includes 10 UCI WorldTeams (seven of those members of the Velon group), three UCI Professional Continental teams, two UCI Continental teams and the UAE National Selection. Each team at the start of Dubai Tour will consist of six riders.

Sir Bradley Wiggins, commenting the announcement, said: "I’m really excited to be racing with my team at the 2016 Dubai Tour. It’s a really exciting event and we’re looking forward to competing with some of the best teams in the world".
 
UCI WorldTeams
•   ASTANA PRO TEAM (KAZ)
•    BMC RACING TEAM (USA)
•    DIMENSION DATA (RSA)
•    ETIXX - QUICK STEP (BEL)
•    LAMPRE - MERIDA (ITA)
•    MOVISTAR TEAM (ESP)
•    TEAM GIANT - ALPECIN (GER)
•    TEAM SKY (GBR)
•    TINKOFF (RUS)
•    TREK FACTORY RACING (USA)

UCI Professional Continental Teams
•    CCC SPRANDI POLKOWICE (POL)
•    ONE PRO CYCLING (GBR)
•    TEAM NOVO NORDISK (USA)

UCI Continental Teams
•    SKYDIVE DUBAI PRO CYCLING TEAM - AL AHLI CLUB (UAE)
•    TEAM WIGGINS (GBR)

National Selection
•    UAE NATIONAL SELECTION (UAE)
 

The 2016 Dubai Tour jerseys will be provided by Castelli: as for the previous editions the Italian brand has used a lightweight high-tech fabric supplied by SITIP that is both UV-protective and allows for a very rapid rate of heat dissipation.

Blue Jersey - General Classification: worn by the overall winner, the one who has proven to be the fastest and most consistent rider over the four stages. In 2015 the blue jersey was won by Mark Cavendish.

Red Jersey - Points Classification: worn by the fastest sprinter, who has obtained the best positions in each stage and intermediate sprint. The red jersey was also won by Mark Cavendish, winner of two of four stages.

White Jersey - Young Rider Classification: worn by the best young rider, the power and the future. In 2015 this jersey was gained by the Dane Michael Valgren.

UAE Flag Jersey - Intermediate Sprint Classification: worn by the rider who gained more Intermediate Sprint Points than any other rider. Last year’s winner was the Italian Alessandro Bazzana.

[Cav']

Dubai Tour Stages 1 and 2 in detail

The first two stages of the next Dubai Tour are suited to the sprinters and could be decisive for the final podium. Last year, thanks to the victory in the opening stage and the 2nd place in stage 2, Mark Cavendish was able to earn enough advantage over the other puncheurs and conquer the Dubai Tour at the last sprint in the shadows of the Burj Khalifa.

 

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STAGE 1 Dubai Silicon Oasis Stage (179km)

The Dubai Silicon Oasis Stage is a long awaited stage in the short but significative history of the Dubai Tour: it’s the first time the race rides through the entire stretch of desert between Dubai and Fujairah crossing the territory of four different Emirates (Dubai, Sharjah, Ras al-Khaimah and Fujairah). After passing the Dubai Silicon Oasis Authority, a high-tech industry zone with more than 1,151 renowned companies, it’s a safe and flat route through the dunes with a short and mild sequence of hills in the Al Hajar Mountains, the highest mountain range in the eastern Arabian peninsula. The last part of the Dubai Silicon Oasis Stage is entirely in the Fujairah Emirate, the only one of seven with its coastline on the Gulf of Oman and none on the Arabian Gulf. Fujairah City is not only the Emirate's business and commercial hub but also a good destination for a weekend escape. With its history lost in the mists of time, the site of Fujairah has been inhabited for 4,000 years. 
 

It’s not a surprise finding here the oldest mosque in the UAE, Al-Bidyah Mosque, a mud-brick construction of the 15th Century (estimated) and, just to the north, a tomb dating back to the Iron Age, according to the Department of Archaeology and Heritage. Another charming landmark of Fujairah territory is the Fujairah Fort, built in 1670 and for many centuries the only stone building along the coast. The area surrounding the fort is now part of a Heritage Village where tourists could see restored old houses, local life exhibits and an example of the traditional Al-Yazrah irrigation system. Other historical landmarks in the area are Bithnah Fort (built in 1735 on the route crossing Al Hajar Mountains) and Al-Hayl Castle, former headquarters for Fujairah's ruling family. Without doubt, the major city’s landmark here is the amazing Sheikh Zayed Mosque, the second biggest mosque in the United Arab Emirates after the Abu Dhabi Mosque.
 

Fujairah is famous for the beaches on the Gulf of Oman with some of the country’s best snorkeling and scuba diving spots – in addition to plenty of facilities such as cafés, restaurants and excellent beach services. Moreover, the Fujairah area is well known for the typical Wadis, the valley oasis. Enjoy the thrills of off-road motoring with Wadi-bashing in Wadi Siji, Wadi Saham, Wadi Mai, Wadi al-Wuraya, each with its own specific attractions.

[Cav']

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STAGE 2 Nakheel Stage (188km)

Nakheel Stage is a perfect advertisement for some of Dubai’s landmarks. The route is divided in two distinct parts: the first is just outside the metropolis, partially in the desert, the second part is within the Dubai Marina to end in Palm Jumeirah, in front of the Atlantis “door”.
 

First, the race passes next to the famous Al Marmoum Racetrack: camel racing is a pastime that originates in the Middle East and has a whole community of avid local followers who regularly track their favourite camels. Past the track, the race approaches the popular Al Qudra bike path, 150km in total divided in two loops of 18 and 50km.
 

The Hamdan Bin Mohammed Bin Rashid Sports Complex pool is located here too, on the edge of the desert. After passing it, the peloton will return into the city touching Dubailand, the ambitious entertainment complex scheduled for 2020, then the Dubai Miracle Garden, the world's largest natural flower garden (where more than 45 million flowers are planted), the famous Jumeirah Golf Estates and Dubai Sports City, also known as DSC, a mix of residential, retail, leisure and sport facilities. In this section, as a city circuit, the route is more complicated, with a series of bends and a passage through Jumeirah Islands, a picturesque, self-contained community of 50 islands with more than 700 villas. Then the Grand Finale on the Palm, the artificial island reached through an underwater tunnel. Here a long sprint of more than 3km will decide the stage winner.

[Cav']

Dubai Tour - Stage 3 

Last week we explored the first two days of the next Dubai Tour, both suited to the sprinters. Today we put the last two stages of the 2016 edition under the spotlight. On February 5th the peloton will ride toward the desert, 172km on a course which replicates almost entirely the inaugural edition stage, with the addition of the Hatta Dam final climb, already experienced in 2015. It’s a medium mountain stage, won last year by the German puncheur John Degenkolb (also a winner of the 2015 Milano-Sanremo and Paris-Roubaix races), ahead of the Spanish riders Valverde and Lobato. The following day, February 6th, the riders will face the Business Bay Stage, the final stage, a sort of a classic: 137km through the Old and New Town touching some of the world famous Dubai landmarks with a final sprint next to Bay Avenue, a retail promenade part of the Business Bay complex, a landmark project of the government real estate company Dubai Properties.

 

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STAGE 3 The Westin Stage (172km)

The Westin Stage is characterized by long stretches in the desert crossing the two neighboring Emirates of Sharjah and Ras-al-Khaimah. Once it has left the last buildings in Dubai, the peloton will reach Lahbab, a small village on the highway. Due to its desert location, the main local activities are the camel breeding and the wild safari adventure on the sand dunes. The riders will then pass through the towns of Al Madam and Al Malahia. The latter, situated in Sharjah Emirate, is a popular tourist spot in the Al Faya Desert, famous for dune-bashing or for setting up a camp under the stars.
 

On the road to Hatta the peloton will face the Hajar Mountains. Those mountains are an important eco region, being the only habitat above 2,000m elevation in the area. Unlike the rest of the Arabian peninsula, they host plant life and are home to a number of endemic species. Here the riders will face two climbs, an easy one followed by a second with peaks of 11% gradient and a fast and challenging downhill. The peloton will then move to Hatta, a popular Heritage Village which includes two prominent military towers from the 18th century and the Juma mosque (built in 1780). Hatta is an exclave of Dubai on the Omani border, famous for the fresh water spring (sources for the Crystal and Jeema mineral waters), the lake of emerald green rainwater of the dam and the rock pools formed by waterfalls (to visit them you need to cross the Oman border).
 

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The last three kilometres are the hardest part of this stage: a continuous ascent up to face the final climb that leads to the dam: a short stretch with inclination from 12% to 17%: roughly 200 meters, probably decisive for the 

[Cav']

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STAGE 4 Business Bay Stage (137km)

The design and route of Stage 4 has been changed to make for the most exciting racing in the best scenery Dubai has to offer! The Business Bay Stage starts in the direction of the great Meydan Racecourse, a horse racing facility able to accommodate over 60,000 spectators in a one mile long grandstand. Racing season starts in November and reaches its peak in March with the elite Dubai World Cup, the world’s richest horse race, with a prize of a dizzying US$10 million. After passing the racecourse the race then will reach and cross Mushrif Central Park – an artificial desert like park of 5.25sqkm (1,300 acres) with many facilities including swimming pools, fountains, lakes and children’s play areas as well as train, camel and pony rides – and then the route moves to the beaches of the Al Mamzar Beach Park recreational area. 
 

The race then runs through Deira, Dubai’s historic commercial centre, Al Maktoum Bridge, the entire Old Town – Dubai spice and Gold Souks included – and over the Dubai Creek (this saltwiter creek used to be the centre for the fishing and pearling industry) close to Port Rashid, the Dubai Cruise Terminal. From there the race enters the Jumeirah Road past the Union House Flag, birthplace of the United Arab Emirates on 2 December 1971. Here the rulers of each emirate signed the treaty creating the Arab world’s first federation. Once past this location, there’s a u-turn at the Burj-al-Arab (literally Tower of the Arabs, the world famous sail-shaped luxury hotel built on an artificial island) to go back to Jumeirah Road and reach the Business Bay complex which is the finishing point and the last sprint of the 2016 Dubai Tour

[Cav']

Start list:

 

[Cav']

The weather

One of the main reasons for doing the Dubai Tour is the good weather that the riders expect to find in the Middle East. They are unlikely to be disappointed as the forecast currently shows that they will find near-perfect conditions for bike racing. Every day will offer bright sunshine and temperatures between 22 and 25 degrees.

 

One of the potential key factors in the race is the wind which has not played a major role in any of the previous editions of the race. It’s unlikely to be a major issue on Wednesday, Friday and Saturday but Thursday is forecasted to be pretty windy. Most of that stage will take place in the city where the roads are less exposed but we could be in for a dramatic finale when the riders the Palm Jumeirah island in the finale.

 

 

The favourites

With a mostly flat route and no chance for the climbers to make a difference, the inuagural Dubai Tour was decided by the opening time trial. Last year the dynamics changed significantly and it came down to a close battle between the puncheurs who excelled in stage 3 and the sprinters who tried to pick up bonus seconds in the three sprint stages.

 

This year the race is very similar to last year’s race and it will again be decided by three elements. First of all the uphill finish in stage 3 will have a massive impact as it will be the best chance to create a selection. The finale will be too tough for the sprinters and instead the puncheurs should come to the fore. A 200m climb, however, will never create big time differences and several riders will probably still be close to the lead at the end of stage 3.

 

While the uphill sprint in stage 3 will be the most important factor in deciding the race, two other factors will also come into play. First of all, the bonus seconds will have an impact and we could see some of the puncheurs go for the intermediate sprints along the way. Furthermore, the sprinters should not be too far off the mark in stage 3 and if they can pick up bonifications in the flat stages, they will have a big chance to win the race overall. Finally, the wind can wreak havoc on the peloton and so any contender either needs a bit of help from the weather gods or a strong team that can help him to make the selection if it’s windy.

 

In the first year the race had very unusual rules for bonus seconds, with only 3, 2 and 1 seconds awarded for the three best riders in each stage and 1 second for the first rider across the line at the intermediate sprints. Last year the organizers introduced the well-known rules of handing out 10, 6 and 4 seconds for the first three riders at the finish and 3, 2 and 1 seconds for the best at the intermediate sprints. This means that the bonus seconds will play a crucial role and with a late intermediate sprint in stages 1 and 4 we could see the bonifications along the route also play a role.

 

There is one big change compared to last year: stage 3 is a lot easier. In 2015, the main differences were not made on the final climb as most of the sprinters lost contact on the much harder ascents earlier in the stage. At one point, Cavendish fell behind but his team rallied around him and brought him back to the front where he limited his losses on the final ramp. This year there are only a few rolling hills before the uphill sprint and while it may be enough to challenge the heaviest sprinters, most of the fast guys will be there at the bottom of the final climb.

 

Already last year the race was won by a sprinter and the easier course will make that even more likely in 2015. Of course the bonus seconds cannot be spread around too much but if one or two sprinters can finish in the top 3 in the three sprint stages, they have a big chance to hold onto the overall lead. Last year Cavendish only lost 10 seconds on Hatta Dam and this year he and his fellow sprinters will arrive fresher for the finale.

 

The race will be dominated by two strong sprinters who both go into the race with very strong lead-outs. It will be the first big clash between Mark Cavendish and Marcel Kittel and with relatively easy courses for three of the stages, we should get at least three battles between those two riders. There is a very strong field of sprinters in Dubai but with Kittel being supported by an excellent train and Cavendish having his usual solid support as well as being great at positioning himself, we can expect them to finish in the top 3 in stages 1, 2 and 4 unless they mess up the lead-out on once or more occasions.

 

In 2014, Marcel Kittel won three stages in this race and he proved that he could survive the late climbs in stage 3. Back then there was no uphill finish but at least he showed that he will be there at the bottom of the final ramp if he has the same kind of form. If he has the sprinting legs he had back then, he will naturally be one of the overwhelming favourites.

 

It all depends on how Kittel is feeling after his disastrous 2015 season. He is no longer ill and he seems to be fired up after joining his new team. It seems like he has had a pretty good winter and should be in good form right from the start of the year. Of course one year without any real racing will have an impact on him but the courses in Dubai are so easy that we don’t expect it to be a major issue.

 

For him to be an overall contender, Kittel needs to be winning most of the sprints as he one of the poorest climbers among the sprinters. However, he has proved that he is clearly the fastest rider in the world and when he briefly showed form at last year’s Tour de Pologne, he didn’t seem to have lost any bit of his speed. The main challenge for Kittel will be to get into a good position for the sprints as he is working with a new lead-pout train.

 

However, Etixx-QuickStep have by far the strongest train in this race and riders like Tony Martin, Nikolas Maes, Matteo Trentin and Fabio Sabatini form a very good lead-out. Apart from Kittel, they have all worked together in the past which will make it easier to make things work right from the start. They probably miss the final lead-out man to match Mark Renshaw’s speed but at least they should make sure that Kittel will start his sprint from a good position and then it will be up to the German’s speed to deliver the wins.

 

We expect Kittel to win most of the sprint stages and that will give him a solid advantage over the puncheurs while he will also gain seconds on Cavendish. He will lose time on Hatta Dam but with a strong team to make sure that he will be near the front at the bottom of the climb he should be able to limit his losses sufficiently. Hence, Kittel is our favourite to win the race.

 

His biggest rival in the sprints and for the overall will probably be Mark Cavendish. The Brit won this race in 2015 when he climbed really well but he doesn’t seem to have the same kind of form this time around. He has been focused on the track and is probably not climbing as well as he did last year. Hence, it was no surprise that he abandoned his first race, the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race.

 

However, Cavendish is a better climber than Kittel and he has done plenty of road training in Australia. With an easier queen stage, he should again be able to limit his losses at Hatta Dam and he is even likely to gain some second on Kittel. Then it will all come down to his competitiveness in the sprints.

 

It will be Cavendish’s first time with the Dimension Data lead-out train of Matt Brammeier, Bernhard Eisel and Mark Renshaw but they have all worked together in the past. They don’t have the firepower of Etixx-QuickStep but they probably have more speed and Renshaw is one of the best lead-out men in the world. There is a solid chance that he will be able to deliver Cavendish in the perfect position and then the Brit is usually hard to beat. If he can do well in all three sprint stages and beat Kittel in at least a couple of them, he has a big chance to defend last year’s win.

 

Juan Jose Lobato was third in last year’s race after having finished second behind Degenkolb on Hatta Dam. In general, the Spaniard was flying at start of the year as he also picked up wins at the Tour Down Under and the Vuelta a Andalucia, proving to be probably the best uphill sprinter in the world. Since then, he has been far from that level though and he was not very good at the Tour Down Under.

 

There is no doubt that Lobato has the speed to win at Hatta Dam but his positioning is terrible. He rarely gets to show his speed and the Hatta Dam sprint is more about positioning than actual sprinting. He is likely to have missed his chance already before they hit the wall and if so he will not be an overall contender. However, if he gets things right, he will be one of the big favourites for the stage win. As he can also pick up bonus seconds in the flat stages, he is an obvious threat for Cavendish and Kittel.

 

Last year Fabian Cancellara decided to skip this race but he is back as he embarks on his final pro season. Apparently, the Swiss is extremely motivated right from the start as he showed much better form than usual at the Challenge Mallorca. Usually, the Trofeo Serra de Tramuntana is too hard for him but this year he took a very impressive solo win in the toughest race of the series. He was unable to follow the best on the climbs but used his descending and TT skills to ride away from the rest.

 

Cancellara is obviously in great form and this race suits him pretty well. Of course he won’t be up there in the bunch sprints but he will be among the favourites on the Hatta Dam. He is fast in this kind of uphill sprint and there is no doubt that he will get the positioning right. If he can win stage 3 and no single sprinter picks up lots of bonus seconds, he can win this race overall.

 

The same goes for Philippe Gilbert who was sixth at Hatta Dam last year. The Belgian has done nothing to hide his GC ambitions and he is usually pretty strong at this time of the year. The uphill sprint on Hatta Dam suits him down to the ground even though he would probably have preferred the climb to be slightly longer. Furthermore, he is great at positioning himself and his BMC team will be ready to go for intermediate sprints and grab an opportunity in the crosswinds. Gilert won’t be a contender in the bunch sprints but if he can win at Hatta Dam, the overall win is within reach.

 

Sky go into the race with Elia Viviani who won a stage here in 2015. Back then, the queen stage was too hard for him but this year he should be able to limit his losses much better. Unlike Kittel and Cavendish, he already has a stage race in his legs where he showed solid form and it was only an impressive Jakub Mareczko that prevented him from winning the final stage. At the time, he is gearing up for the Track World Championships and so has the speed to do well here.

 

To win the race, he has to beat Cavendish and Kittel in the sprints and he has proved that he has the speed to at least beat the Brit. The Sky train has plenty of speed and did really well here in 2015. This time they miss Eisel but Andrew Fenn and Ben Swift will be able to do well. On paper, he climbs better than both Cavendish and Kittel and if he can get a few top 3 finishes in the sprints, he can win the race overall.

 

Cancellara is not the only Trek option as the American team also have Giacomo Nizzolo here. Among the top sprinters here, he is the best climber and he showed good form in the Tour Down Under where he survived the tough climbing in stage 4 and was up there in the sprint finishes. He is supported by one of the best trains in the race but doesn’t have the speed of Viviani, Cavendish and Kittel. However, a few good sprints and better climbing legs could set him up for overall victory.

 

While Sky will go for Viviani in the sprints, Ben Swift will be their man for Hatta Dam. Last year the Brit was taken out by a puncture and he will be eager to get his revenge. He has showed decent form in Australia and this kind of uphill sprint suits him pretty well. He and Lobato are the only sprinters that can be in contention for victory on the queen stage. If he can win that stage and take the overall lead, Sky will turn his attention to him in the final sprint stage where he will get a chance to defend his lead.

 

Another specialist in uphill sprints is Simone Ponzi. The Italian is making his CCC debut in this race and when he last joined a new team, he came out with all guns blazing. He had a mediocre 2015 season so it remains to be seen if he can rediscover those legs but if he can, he will be one of the favourites for the queen stage.

 

Movistar will have more cards to play than Lobato. Giovanni Visconti and Gorka Izagirre can both do well in uphill sprints and they will be allowed to take their chances. Both did the races in Mallorca where they showed decent form. They are better at positioning themselves than Lobato even though Visconti often has a relatively lazy approach. The Italian is faster than his Spanish teammate but Izagirre’s third place in last year’s Tour Down Under proves his skills in such a finish.

 

Astana will go for Andrea Guardini in the sprints but there is little chance that he will be able to limit his losses in stage 3 to be an overall contender. Instead, Lars Boom and Lieuwe Westra will go for GC and both are suited to the uphill sprint in Hatta Dam. Westra claims to be in excellent form but never got the chance to show it at the Tour Down Under where he hit the ground. Boom has been doing some cyclo-cross and did a good World Chmapionships which proves that the form is good. Westra is the better climber but also has a decent punch while Boom is the faster of the pair. They probably lack the speed to win on Hatta Dam but with good form they can’t be ruled out.

 

Lampre-Merida have Sacha Modolo for the sprints. The Italian is usually in very good form at the start of the year and he is a pretty good climber too. Last year he achieved amazing results in the sprints but it will be hard for him to repeat that kind of performance in 2016 as he no longer has Maximiliano Richeze at his side. Many of his wins were more based on lead-outs than actual speed and he will probably have to target some of the harder sprints. However, he still has Roberto Ferrari for the lead-out and if he has his best form, he could pick up enough bonus seconds to win the race by climbing well in the queen stage.

[T-Bob]

Solid write up Cav'... nice work. 

 

So it'll be interesting to see how the other Cav' has drilled his DD team mates and how they go against the established trains and and the might of EQS throwing Kittel to the front the road for the first outing for the Team. 

Not sure what to expect from Cav' this year as he's has a big focus on the Olympics and most of his training has been about that in the off season. At the Cadel race he said he was pretty low on endurance and distance but has extra conditioning from the track. 

[Pure Savage]

Start list:

Think this is the first world tour start for the younger Sagan

[Cav']

Think this is the first world tour start for the younger Sagan

I think he's actually older than Peter if I'm not mistaken (might be wrong though).

[Pure Savage]

I think he's actually older than Peter if I'm not mistaken (might be wrong though).

The not so famous Sagan*

[Gen]

Are we gekom coverage? Cause I see they have less than 40km to go

 

Will be interesting to see if Kittel can remember how to sprint.

 

Very aware that this is all just preparation for the rest of the year. . But will be interesting to see none the less.

[Gen]

#DubaiTour 28km to go, @EiselBernhard descending on the front of peloton at 85km/h. Gap is 2'41".

[Gen]

#DubaiTour 44km to go, the 6 leaders have 3'45" on the peloton still. Live coverage has started on @SuperSportTV SS5 and @Eurosport 1HD.

[Gen]

Ha.. found live streaming

[Gen]

19km to go