andydude Posted February 17, 2011 Posted February 17, 2011 [(202/153) - 1] / 0.87 = 0.36811 = 36.81 which is as close to dammit compared to what they gave me. Obviously if you calculate your Beta from your Index info and then use that calculated Beta to get to your Index it must be the same! Basically it is the formula they use, will be interesting to see what everbody else comes up with if you use this formula and compare it to what index they gave you. Does that make sense? That does make sense. Your Beta was 0.87 (but I'm sure if you use exact seconds and at least five decimals it would be closer to 0.90)and mine worked out to 0.91 - we previously came to the conclusion that different Betas are used for different riders.
Bram_on_Madone Posted February 17, 2011 Posted February 17, 2011 (edited) Obviously if you calculate your Beta from your Index info and then use that calculated Beta to get to your Index it must be the same! That does make sense. Your Beta was 0.87 (but I'm sure if you use exact seconds and at least five decimals it would be closer to 0.90)and mine worked out to 0.91 - we previously came to the conclusion that different Betas are used for different riders. Working on seconds my beta was also 0.91 (0.909506 to be precise) - it looks like everybody's Beta is the same for a particular race. As this is effectively the regression coefficient, it wouldn't make sense if it differed. On further thought - I don't think PPA has a very scientific approach to establish the ghost rider time. They'll calculate the Beta based on the spread and then play around with the ghost time until they end up with a seeding spread that they're happy with. Edited February 17, 2011 by Bram_on_Madone
scuzzy Posted February 17, 2011 Posted February 17, 2011 Everybody cannot have a different BETA, cause according to the website, the BETA is something they assign per race, or at least that is the way I understand it. So if it was quite windy on Saturday, the BETA might have been 1.1 or 1.2 or something like that. The BETA cannot be worked out per rider, cause the it means it is like a handicap in golf. The BETA is suppose to reward the rider that did well under difficult circumstances. Or at least, that is the way I understand it.
andydude Posted February 17, 2011 Posted February 17, 2011 Working on seconds my beta was also 0.91 (0.909506 to be precise) - it looks like everybody's Beta is the same for a particular race. As this is effectively the regression coefficient, it wouldn't make sense if it differed. My Beta to six decimals is 0.910115 - small difference. Statistically relevant? I don't know - have never been strong at stats On further thought - I don't think PPA has a very scientific approach to establish the ghost rider time. They'll calculate the Beta based on the spread and then play around with the ghost time until they end up with a seeding spread that they're happy with. Yip!
Montblanc Posted February 24, 2011 Posted February 24, 2011 Does anybody have a email address for this ghost rider. I need a training program from him.
Edge_Design Posted February 25, 2011 Posted February 25, 2011 You don't need to cycle away from your group, but you do need to work at the front of the group and drag them all to better times (unfortunately your entire group gets a better seeding, but who really cares as long as you also do). Just coz you're capable of sucking the wheels of the front riders in your group and then jumping past them for the line does not qualify you as a stronger/better rider than them. Finishing 5th in a bunch of 40 people does not mean much other than you did less work during the race than them or have a slightly stronger sprint. If you want to improve your seeding you should be able to get on to the front and increase the group's speed (and hence reduce the gap to the winning time and therefore improve your seeding index!). That would also show you are a stronger rider than them and deserving of a better seeding. I have made it to F now after starting the '09/10 summer in H, that was a result of spending the whole of that season dragging the group up every climb in the southern suburbs of CT. This year I've been a highly qualified wheelsucker (still sprinting for top 5 in the rides I've done just like you) and my seeding has not improved at all The system isn't perfect, but how do you rank an individual rider's ability accurately out of a group of 1000+ riders??? It's just not possible...
headhunter Posted February 25, 2011 Posted February 25, 2011 (edited) You don't need to cycle away from your group, but you do need to work at the front of the group and drag them all to better times (unfortunately your entire group gets a better seeding, but who really cares as long as you also do). Just coz you're capable of sucking the wheels of the front riders in your group and then jumping past them for the line does not qualify you as a stronger/better rider than them. Finishing 5th in a bunch of 40 people does not mean much other than you did less work during the race than them or have a slightly stronger sprint. If you want to improve your seeding you should be able to get on to the front and increase the group's speed (and hence reduce the gap to the winning time and therefore improve your seeding index!). That would also show you are a stronger rider than them and deserving of a better seeding. I have made it to F now after starting the '09/10 summer in H, that was a result of spending the whole of that season dragging the group up every climb in the southern suburbs of CT. This year I've been a highly qualified wheelsucker (still sprinting for top 5 in the rides I've done just like you) and my seeding has not improved at all The system isn't perfect, but how do you rank an individual rider's ability accurately out of a group of 1000+ riders??? It's just not possible... Agree with nearly all that you say. However the MAJOR issue is with the Ghost Giro rider. Darren Lill, as an example cannot beat the Ghost Giro rider and he is the SA Champ and Stage 6 TofSA winner. Moolman can't even beat himself and these chaps all ride the Giro...so pray tell me WTF is up with that ? Edited February 25, 2011 by headhunter
stratus5 Posted February 25, 2011 Posted February 25, 2011 Speeding up your whole group will make the race look to easy and the beta will be harsher ... cant win. All the regression is done against the Argus 2010, which was hard because of the wind, which spread riders out more than usual. If the 2011 Argus is easier, with fast times, then the fun rides will look harder statistically and our seedings will improve, which will mean that PPA will have to make the ghost rider go even faster Lots of riders are still using times from 2009/2010 to maintain their seedings. I am guilty as well, as even though I am way fitter this year, some of my 2009 times with a 5% age penalty applied are still better than my 2011 results. Only just ... I have enough 2011 seedings to keep me in G. There are definitely riders ahead of me who get towed along in their faster bunches. E.g D riders who would finish mid group if they started in H. I know this as we often race against them in Die Burger and 99er etc where they dont use PPA seedings. I dont know how you could push the reset button? Perhaps something really harsh like everybody seeded A-J will start in J UNLESS they do two PPA sanctioned time trials over a set course before the season starts again. WIth GPS technology the course could be defined and then you can do the course on any day and only have to send in the track log. Some of the file formats for GPS storage cant be fudged easily. Some twit would do it in his car though
'Dale Posted February 25, 2011 Posted February 25, 2011 Does anybody have a email address for this ghost rider. I need a training program from him.I need to puncture his tubbies in the starting chute...
MTB_Roadie Posted February 25, 2011 Posted February 25, 2011 You don't need to cycle away from your group, but you do need to work at the front of the group and drag them all to better times (unfortunately your entire group gets a better seeding, but who really cares as long as you also do). Just coz you're capable of sucking the wheels of the front riders in your group and then jumping past them for the line does not qualify you as a stronger/better rider than them. Finishing 5th in a bunch of 40 people does not mean much other than you did less work during the race than them or have a slightly stronger sprint. If you want to improve your seeding you should be able to get on to the front and increase the group's speed (and hence reduce the gap to the winning time and therefore improve your seeding index!). That would also show you are a stronger rider than them and deserving of a better seeding. I have made it to F now after starting the '09/10 summer in H, that was a result of spending the whole of that season dragging the group up every climb in the southern suburbs of CT. This year I've been a highly qualified wheelsucker (still sprinting for top 5 in the rides I've done just like you) and my seeding has not improved at all The system isn't perfect, but how do you rank an individual rider's ability accurately out of a group of 1000+ riders??? It's just not possible... Love that saying....I always work in the front, pulling the group...and in the end they all sprint past....WTF? So now I try drop the group with some riders then we work together and get a decent time....
nuge Posted February 25, 2011 Posted February 25, 2011 The only way too improve seeding is to ride league I was told.yeah, but you gotta get your seeding up first in order to ride there! chicken vs egg? dinosaur vs dodo? contador vs yo' momma...? um... ok i'm out.
fubarza Posted February 25, 2011 Posted February 25, 2011 How do you know the weighting of each race or does PPA calculate it after each race? Is it published somewhere?
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