nomoregravity

Thanks for a great competition where the challenges pushed most of us out of our comfort zones. How many in the draw?

Soooooo.. anyone been contacted telephonically yet?

The 30th flip proved to be a great illustration of why it's an observation and not a law :-)

Counter-intuitive yes, but once your head gets around the implications of "random" it should make sense. A simple 50/50 example is a good start, like the toss in cricket. A captain might decide at the start of his career to always call heads, assuming that he should be right 50% of the time. In reality, he may end up being captain for twenty matches, and never win a toss. Each new throw of the coin is a new event - the coin doesn't have a memory (or a conscience :-) ). The law of averages isn't really a law, but rather an observation that, over time and millions of throws of the coin, heads and tails occur in more or less equal frequencies. In this competition, if it was only you and me that completed all four challenges, and there were two entries up for grabs, and we assumed that you can only win once, we would each have a 50% chance in the first draw. The person losing in the first draw would then have a 100% chance of winning the SECOND draw, which would also be the last. So, in an event with multiple draws, your best odds is always what it will be in the FINAL draw. If we added dirtypot to the mix, we would each have a 1 in 3 chance for the first entry, while you and dirtypot would each have a 50% odds for the second entry, as I would have won the first! I also seem to care more about this than I should...

I was so NOT gonna be the stats Nazi, but it really is only 0.418% First draw 1 chance in 240 (0.416%), second draw 1 chance in 239 (0.418%)... Excellent odds anyways!

Thanks meezo, any idea on overall times?

Updates Stan!? And a photo or two? Who's leading? How about posting a daily bulletin up to the end of the week? Saturday's stage must have been brutal - DC on gravel, on your own, as the first stage of 6... Rooting for Nils!

Even the best make mistakes sometimes, even if only i n choosing a partner ;-) 1-1 Christoph Sauser .... 2015 - Winner (Men) Cat Pos: 1. GC Pos: 1. Time: 31:00.57,7 Stage Wins: Stg 1. Stg 2. Stg 3. Stg 5. Stg 6. (5)2014 - Finisher (Men) Cat Pos: 2. GC Pos: 2. Time: 30:42.22,4 Stage Wins: Stg 3. (1)2013 - Winner (Men) Cat Pos: 1. GC Pos: 1. Time: 29:40.44,9 Stage Wins: Prlg. Stg 4. Stg 5. Stg 6. (4)2012 - Winner (Men) Cat Pos: 1. GC Pos: 1. Time: 31:46.50,5 Stage Wins: Prlg. Stg 1. Stg 3. Stg 4. Stg 5. Stg 7. (6)2011 - Winner (Men) Cat Pos: 1. GC Pos: 1. Time: 28:44.44,0 Stage Wins: Prlg. Stg 1. Stg 2. Stg 4. Stg 5. (5)

A regular at the local... No champagne in the foreground, no elephant in the background, but I'd take it anyway :-)

3 or 2 or 1... Rain predicted from around Saturday midday, so we might have to start on Friday morning already. Driving out tomorrow morning, losing cellphone reception on top of the Swartberg around 3pm. Anyone still welcome to come and join for a few laps :-)

Thanks! "Trepidation" is no longer only a word :-) Weather's looking promising too...

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See https://www.prescient.co.za/page_content.php?pageID=Our%20Business_Sustainability_Prescient%20Foundation&menu_id=1&submenu_id=96&header=5 for detail on the Foundation.

The countdown has started to Everesting Die Hel. To support the education projects of the Prescient Foundation, please pledge by leaving a comment here or at http://everestingsa.wordpress.com/everesting-die-hel-2015-09-26, and we'll get in touch.

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Sorry Spinnekop, private invites closed! Everesting Die Hel is now public domain: https://www.bikehub.co.za/index.php?app=hubevents&module=core&do=view_event&event_id=1891 A ride for the incurable romantics (it will be full moon after all) and nut-cases with no lives (with apologies to VicanZA above).

Still twiddling your thumbs there, spinnekop? Will we see you in Gamkaskloof on 25th September? Everesting Die Hel. PM me your e-mail address - we're sending out invites this week :-)

Amazing place to ride a bicycle Mads. The coolest thing about the ride was to experience the changing sights and sounds at different hours of the day (and night). From riding in the moonlight to sunrise to the contrasting colours of olive trees and vineyards in the early morning. You should have flown down, Spinnekop :-)

Sondag is ons darem net half-mal wetters... I saw Philip's post, and it brought home how crazy a challenge this thing is. Doing it on his own was just absolutely bonkers. Would love to meet the man and ride a hill with him some time :-)

We're planning a training ride on Sunday 7th June at Riebeek Kasteel for an Everesting attempt elsewhere later this month. Weather seems great for an early (3am) morning start at the bottom of the Bothmaskloof pass on Riebeek Kasteel's side. The plan is to ride to the top and back until we reach 4424m altitude gain (half the real thing), which will be around 22 reps of 200m each (see the strava segment: https://www.strava.com/segments/5860371).This should take us through to 11am and breakfast at Allesverloren. Join in if you need some time in the saddle or hill reps :-)

In that case, I'm planning the cycling equivalent of banging my head against a wall: ride up the back of Malanshoogte 30 times on Saturday morning... Actually it's a scouting/training ride for an Everesting attempt later this year. And on cue Strava has a new climbing challenge: http://www.strava.com/challenges/climb-for-nepal Maybe it will ease the pain :-)

Just hoping the same logic doesn't apply for NOT winning, ie 4 x 123/124 = 496/124 = 397% So we're lucky that Murphy, AndreV and THAT guy with 2222 posts take the first three entries, which will at least leave the rest of us with only a 120/121 chance of not winning.

Hallo Matt! Later which morning?

Some bag-grabbing reported on cycle lane again close to the Woodstock station this morning around 9. Take care, and maybe wait for a bunch before attempting the stretch through Paardeneiland into town.