(Deon) Posted June 23, 2014 Share If you recall the rains were 'over' when the second slip occurred, so in my experience it is better to not even attempt a guess. Slip or not, the trail cannot be left as is, runoff is needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porqui Posted June 23, 2014 Share Capricorn - it's rideable - go and enjoy it - just don't do it on your own. If it is your time it is your time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Headshot Posted June 23, 2014 Share If it slips again this winter what do we do? Or the next winter or the next...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capricorn Posted June 23, 2014 Share Capricorn - it's rideable - go and enjoy it - just don't do it on your own. If it is your time it is your time! Porqui: so you cross roads blind because your time is your time? Surely u not that daft i'm not dumb enough to put riding above all else, especially a simple safety consideration in light of potentially unstable land trails are cut from. But since I'm not an expert, and judging by your responses, neither are you, I'm hoping someone else can give a better considered response. anyway, errm ok Pain or Shine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
(Deon) Posted June 23, 2014 Share If it slips again this winter what do we do? Or the next winter or the next...? Slippage is natural, not much we could do except pick up the pieces and start again. You'd think the people of Bangladesh have asked themselves this same question. I don't think I would even know the place existed had a village not been in the line of mudslides almost every year. Capricorn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porqui Posted June 23, 2014 Share Cap you clearly don't cross roads blindly but you still cross them. It is safer riding Tokai bridle than getting onto any road - for certain.Just saying Come and join me - I have a theory - it is my theory and this theory is mine and not by Anne Elk.Last year we had extensive landslides here in Hout Bay spread out over the whole valley also in the Du Toit's Kloof area and some other. We had extensive rains leading to saturated soils.The strange thing is that ALL the landslides (including Tokai) all happened on the same night which leads me to believe there must have been some (mild) seismic activity that triggered them if not they would have occured over a period of weeks. (btw There was some seismic activity recorded in the Boland last week). Edited June 23, 2014 by porqui Capricorn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flowta Posted June 23, 2014 Share actually, i can see mini streams popping out of the sidewalls where jeep track's been cut out of the mountain. last time i saw that was last year, and the slippages occured then as well. if we have more of the same rain over the next few weeks and months, it wouldn't be a stretch to imagine there'd be more slips. If there is that risk, why should ppl riding it encourage maintenance now as opposed to stopping the riding until we actually out of rainy season? Those mini streams could partly have been caused because of the Pine plantations being removed and no longer sucking up that water. Just a thought Eddy Gordo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
(Deon) Posted June 23, 2014 Share I've been advised to look into a geotech to provide input and two weeks ago made contact with a group who have all the needed professional facilities at their disposal.. Will have a follow up meeting soon to discuss Tokai trail specifics. It's very clear that the mountain is retaining a lot more water with the pine removal. How high the table extends is anyone's guess but after cutting the Snake trail 3 months after the pine was felled, I can tell you that water retention is immediate! Pine really does suck a lot of water. Yes, the Switchbacks have been pine cleared for many years but the mountain is not isolated individual slopes. Gum trees suck even more and on the reserve side of this slope, all the gum has been ringbarked up to the border fence. This is probably why suddenly two slippages have occurred in short space of each other. It will more than likely stabilise as the ground changes, the slippage is the natural path water will follow from now and essentially it's pulled the 'plug' on the retention. It will all start again if/when the rest of the gum is removed.. so expect the worst. The engineer should have some solutions, short-term and/or long-term. Capricorn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
(Deon) Posted June 23, 2014 Share Cap you clearly don't cross roads blindly but you still cross them. It is safer riding Tokai bridle than getting onto any road - for certain.Just saying Come and join me - I have a theory - it is my theory and this theory is mine and not by Anne Elk.Last year we had extensive landslides here in Hout Bay spread out over the whole valley also in the Du Toit's Kloof area and some other. We had extensive rains leading to saturated soils.The strange thing is that ALL the landslides (including Tokai) all happened on the same night which leads me to believe there must have been some (mild) seismic activity that triggered them if not they would have occured over a period of weeks. (btw There was some seismic activity recorded in the Boland last week).Haha, you do realise that it is the same mountain on both sides..? The water does not fill up on one side of the bucket. Just yanking your chain! Not ruling it out but do keep in mind that S'West, Gordons bay and Stellies all had slides on the same night. Would have been a bit more than mild to shake right across the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hellwarp Posted June 23, 2014 Share Common sense prevailing, what that trail needs is a makeover, not a patch job. This time of year (as quite rightly commented upon in this thread) a patched rut can quite easily end up in the drain if the trail tread has not been restored and effectve runoffs and water management put in place. Run-offs may need to be reinforced with flat rocks or treated poles for longevity. Its a R20 000 job, conservatively. Its potentially a cool fast trail but the structure and maintenance have to be top notch. A good makeover will stretch the maintenance periods and pay for itself long term. Flowta your thought on the tree removal can be considered as a fact. Edited June 23, 2014 by Hellwarp Headshot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Headshot Posted June 23, 2014 Share Slippage is natural, not much we could do except pick up the pieces and start again. You'd think the people of Bangladesh have asked themselves this same question. I don't think I would even know the place existed had a village not been in the line of mudslides almost every year. Exactly my point - so its pointless to wait because we'll be waiting for ever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capricorn Posted June 23, 2014 Share Cap you clearly don't cross roads blindly but you still cross them. It is safer riding Tokai bridle than getting onto any road - for certain.Just saying Come and join me - hahahaha.. sharp selling there using road interesting theory you have: liquification of soil is a major concern for major buildings, hence the driving of piles and/or use of soil-cement to act as a stable foundation. Adding water to the mix surely wouldn't help matters.But we didn't pick up any seismic activity over that period last year, so pretty sure it wasn't a namazu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alouette3 Posted June 23, 2014 Share Cap you clearly don't cross roads blindly but you still cross them. It is safer riding Tokai bridle than getting onto any road - for certain.Just saying Come and join me - I have a theory - it is my theory and this theory is mine and not by Anne Elk.Last year we had extensive landslides here in Hout Bay spread out over the whole valley also in the Du Toit's Kloof area and some other. We had extensive rains leading to saturated soils.The strange thing is that ALL the landslides (including Tokai) all happened on the same night which leads me to believe there must have been some (mild) seismic activity that triggered them if not they would have occured over a period of weeks. (btw There was some seismic activity recorded in the Boland last week).Haha, you do realise that it is the same mountain on both sides..? The water does not fill up on one side of the bucket. Just yanking your chain! Not ruling it out but do keep in mind that S'West, Gordons bay and Stellies all had slides on the same night. Would have been a bit more than mild to shake right across the bay.Was actually very extensive, right across the peninsula. Observed the mountains from the air. Never seen such extensive damage over such a large area, just caused by rain. Edited June 23, 2014 by Alouette3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
(Deon) Posted June 23, 2014 Share But we didn't pick up any seismic activity over that period last year, so pretty sure it wasn't a namazu.I was going to ask. If anyone knows, it'd be you... Question, do you have a 'suit' hanging next to your table incase of a bad shake? Can you cycle in that suit and it it tear resistant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TAAHIRWP Posted June 23, 2014 Share So will a geotechnical engineer be doing an assessment /report for this specific site at tokai? Would be nice to know what he has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
(Deon) Posted June 23, 2014 Share Will know after the next meeting if one is available and at what cost, if any. One is needed in the next few months for trail rationalisation, could piggyback on that to save if there is a fee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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