Garfield2010 Posted April 1, 2016 Share Indeed. I referred to a dense article in a cursory way. Allen's analysis shows that with regards to men, 14/26 of the Kona since 1989 were won by the fastest runner. In 5/26 the fastest biker won. The reference to Frodo is that after Kienle won 2014 with fastest bike, Frodeno did so at IM Frankfurt a few months later. And the fact that since 2009 no one won with fastest run. So it seems something is changing. He concluded in the article that there are many way to win Kona, but that as far as averages go running strongly gives you the best chance. What do we define as being a good runner and an average runner? 02h55 marathon vs a 02H50 marathon? If you know the guy next to you is a better runner then you will most certainly "test" him on the bike. I watched the Kona live streaming broadcast and it is very interesting listening to the commentators discussing tactics among the athletes. Frodo has a massive advantage. He is practically the fastest swimmer and runner in the field and also a superb biker. Now imagine racing against that. How do you beat him? The year Kienle won and Frodo came second, Frodo punctured twice and he still managed to run himself back into second by which time the km's ran out. Also certain courses allows stronger bikers to perform better. IMSA for the last few years definitely suited strong bikers. The hills, winds and "out of sight out of mind" factor played its part. This year however expect a big bunch of cyclists to finish together (with the usual lone wolf in the front) and a big fight to occur in the run. So sad that Frodo is out. Matt could be the guy. Snytjie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Garfield2010 Posted April 1, 2016 Share Doing my 5th this year and is also nervous but this is mainly due to the fact that I have put together a really good training campaign. What works for me in the swim is to really look forward to it. That nervous excitement of race morning when your feet hit the sand. Think of how privileged you are to be able to swim the ocean whilst thousands of spectators looks on. How many people are not in a position to do this. See it as an amazing blessing to take part. This is also the only part of the day you will not be overheating so enjoy the cool water. There are also no rules so you can basically just focus on swimming. The mistake people make is to fear the water. Then when the gun goes off its hyperventilation overtime due to the anxiety and the cold water. Make sure you take a warm up swim. This is to get used to the water more than anything. Just go in and splash around - once you breathing have stabilized you are good to line up on the beach. I hope they add more yellow buoys as they have done in recent 70.3 races as this really helps. I live inland and only have access to a pool. The only open water swims I do is at Ironman and due to the above I beat my pool times easily at events. Woestersous, Snytjie, WernerLouwBosman and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MK Killer Posted April 1, 2016 Share Doing my 5th this year and is also nervous but this is mainly due to the fact that I have put together a really good training campaign. What works for me in the swim is to really look forward to it. That nervous excitement of race morning when your feet hit the sand. Think of how privileged you are to be able to swim the ocean whilst thousands of spectators looks on. How many people are not in a position to do this. See it as an amazing blessing to take part. This is also the only part of the day you will not be overheating so enjoy the cool water. There are also no rules so you can basically just focus on swimming. The mistake people make is to fear the water. Then when the gun goes off its hyperventilation overtime due to the anxiety and the cold water. Make sure you take a warm up swim. This is to get used to the water more than anything. Just go in and splash around - once you breathing have stabilized you are good to line up on the beach. I hope they add more yellow buoys as they have done in recent 70.3 races as this really helps. I live inland and only have access to a pool. The only open water swims I do is at Ironman and due to the above I beat my pool times easily at events. Ya look I have done 3 half distance swims previously, and although with much anxiety, they did turn out to be (as most people say) the easiest part of the race. 3.8km in the ocean however is still daunting and I will try my best to keep calm and take it slow. 1hr 30min of swimming just seems like a damn long time.... Snytjie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
banna Posted April 1, 2016 Share Ya look I have done 3 half distance swims previously, and although with much anxiety, they did turn out to be (as most people say) the easiest part of the race. 3.8km in the ocean however is still daunting and I will try my best to keep calm and take it slow. 1hr 30min of swimming just seems like a damn long time....Nah, don't sweat it boet. It will be over before you know it. Time goes a lot quicker in a sea swim, because it's not so boring as following the black line in a pool for 160 lengths. You'll be fine. The run on the other hand.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snytjie Posted April 1, 2016 Share What do we define as being a good runner and an average runner? 02h55 marathon vs a 02H50 marathon? If you know the guy next to you is a better runner then you will most certainly "test" him on the bike. I watched the Kona live streaming broadcast and it is very interesting listening to the commentators discussing tactics among the athletes. Frodo has a massive advantage. He is practically the fastest swimmer and runner in the field and also a superb biker. Now imagine racing against that. How do you beat him? The year Kienle won and Frodo came second, Frodo punctured twice and he still managed to run himself back into second by which time the km's ran out. Also certain courses allows stronger bikers to perform better. IMSA for the last few years definitely suited strong bikers. The hills, winds and "out of sight out of mind" factor played its part. This year however expect a big bunch of cyclists to finish together (with the usual lone wolf in the front) and a big fight to occur in the run. So sad that Frodo is out. Matt could be the guy.It is probably best to divide the discussion two: one discussion for pros, serious contenders in AG etc and one for us normal okes. For the first group I agree with you and Allen that history shows that IM can be won in different ways, also depending on the course. Banna originally asked:"I'm still trying to figure out what's the best: go hard on the bike OR hard on the run OR (in my case) average speeds on both bike and run. I guess it depends what you're good at."I thought that research like Allen's showed that running well gives you the greatest advantage (somewhat invalid as it mixes pros and us lot). I still think so: if I go hard at the bike it will impact my running a lot and I'd walk/stop/blow up. If I go reasonable at the bike I might run the entire marathon and even at reasonable pace and make up more time than what I would have gained if I biked hard. Garfield2010 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceCreamMan Posted April 1, 2016 Share Ultimately the answer is based on our own ability and no way can stats from pro's infer anything. My answer would be dependent on the potential of each discipline, if the potential is the ability to decrease bike by 1 hour but the result of this would be to increase run time by 1 hour 15 then it would not be worth while. so ultimately the answer depends on the individual. In my own case I believe going hard on the bike would be beneficial as I am more likely to be quicker cycling hard than running hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
banna Posted April 1, 2016 Share Ultimately the answer is based on our own ability and no way can stats from pro's infer anything. My answer would be dependent on the potential of each discipline, if the potential is the ability to decrease bike by 1 hour but the result of this would be to increase run time by 1 hour 15 then it would not be worth while. so ultimately the answer depends on the individual. In my own case I believe going hard on the bike would be beneficial as I am more likely to be quicker cycling hard than running hard.This is the beauty of the sport. More than one way to skin the cat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Garfield2010 Posted April 1, 2016 Share Ultimately the answer is based on our own ability and no way can stats from pro's infer anything. My answer would be dependent on the potential of each discipline, if the potential is the ability to decrease bike by 1 hour but the result of this would be to increase run time by 1 hour 15 then it would not be worth while. so ultimately the answer depends on the individual. In my own case I believe going hard on the bike would be beneficial as I am more likely to be quicker cycling hard than running hard.I am exactly the opposite. I believe if I can end off the race with a 4 hour marathon I have paced myself perfectly. Since I have changed my focus to a running time I have enjoyed the races so much more. You can surge many times later in the race but you only blow out once and its over. Once you blow the rest of the race is a painful drag. Having said all of the above there are other factors as well namely conditions. If you feel good, its still early and cool and the wind is not blowing then it could certainly be more advantageous to push hard for a period. The same goes when you start running at 13h00 and the tar is effectively 40 degrees then its not worth pushing hard until say 14h30 when the worst heat is over... So many factors. I am gonna stand right in front on the swim start (although I suck at swimming) to try and get as far as possible on the bike before the Easterly bitch arrives. Edited April 1, 2016 by Garfield2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MK Killer Posted April 1, 2016 Share I am exactly the opposite. I believe if I can end of the race with a 4 hour marathon I have paced myself perfectly. Since I have changed my focus to a running time I have enjoyed the races so much more. You can surge many times on the run but you can only blow out once and its over. Once you blow the rest of the race is a painful drag. Having said all of the above there are other factors as well namely conditions. If you feel good, its still early and cool and the wind is not blowing then it could certainly be more advantageous to push hard for a period. The same goes when you start running at 13h00 and the tar is effectively 40 degrees then its not worth pushing hard until say 14h30 when the worst heat is off.... So many factors. I am gonna stand right in front on the swim start (although I suck at swimming) to try and get as far as possible on the bike before the Easterly bitch arrives. Given the rolling swim start will take 15 minutes to affect in totality - is going nearer the front to gain say an extra 10 minutes worth people swimming over you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Garfield2010 Posted April 1, 2016 Share Given the rolling swim start will take 15 minutes to affect in totality - is going nearer the front to gain say an extra 10 minutes worth people swimming over you?Having done Durban with the rolling starts, I don't believe anybody will swim over anybody else. There is a difference between single file and 2500 athletes simultaneously heading for one buoy at the same time Also if people swim over you, you should look at your swim kick efficiency Edited April 1, 2016 by Garfield2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fanievb Posted April 2, 2016 Share https://youtu.be/mxzYCedaxsQ Fast Forward 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snytjie Posted April 4, 2016 Share So, that is it for me. Finished of with a "short" long day out on Saturday and felt good throughout all three disciplines. Looking forward to feeling even better during this week of rest/short sessions. Good luck to all of you! May the swim be easy, the bike pretty and the run enjoyable! My weather site tells me we can pack lightly: Garfield2010, Jewbacca and clivem 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
banna Posted April 4, 2016 Share So, that is it for me. Finished of with a "short" long day out on Saturday and felt good throughout all three disciplines. Looking forward to feeling even better during this week of rest/short sessions. Good luck to all of you! May the swim be easy, the bike pretty and the run enjoyable! My weather site tells me we can pack lightly:Capture.JPGSame to you bud. But don't you just hate tapering? Just makes me nervous sitting around, twinkling my toes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snytjie Posted April 4, 2016 Share Yeah, tapering is difficult. My problem is not so much being nervous or feeling that I loose fitness, it more relates to getting relaxed and wanting beer, wine, good food, romantic nights missed out on over the last months etc.... If I don't watch it I go into party mode really fast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
banna Posted April 4, 2016 Share Yeah, tapering is difficult. My problem is not so much being nervous or feeling that I loose fitness, it more relates to getting relaxed and wanting beer, wine, good food, romantic nights missed out on over the last months etc.... If I don't watch it I go into party mode really fast!Haha! Ja, looking forward to a few months off. Red wine, surfing, red wine.... Rocket-Boy and Jewbacca 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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