New Zealand - The Good, The Bad and The Ugly.

[Wayne Potgieter]

Yeah, I think in general people have been doing their best to comply. So much so that every 2nd person is now a self-appointed undercover police informant

 

I think in the first week there were about 3500 reports from the public, dobbing in others for non-compliance.

 

Either way, the one thing I fear is that if those in the driver.s seat decide to extend this road-trip without letting the kids stop for a pee, we may have more and more bailing out of the station-wagon.

 

There's an underlying murmur that they might decide to extend Level 4 until after Anzac weekend, for fear that the public will use the long weekend to travel around, if Level 3 were in place.

 

1 long weekend in lockdown is hard. 2 is cruel.

My opinion is that they will extend level 4 to the end of Anzac.

 

Was reading an opinion piece this morning in the herald (that was probably my first mistake) from a scientist, that suggested staying in level 4 for another 2 weeks would pretty much eliminate the virus completely.

 

I dont know if business could handle that.

 

I guess they will switch from level 4 to 3 after Anzac and then sit at level 3 for 14 days before reassessing.

 

Either way, I am glad I still have a job and no change to my income, but if the lockdown increases, that situation will likely change.

[patches]

My opinion is that they will extend level 4 to the end of Anzac.

 

Was reading an opinion piece this morning in the herald (that was probably my first mistake) from a scientist, that suggested staying in level 4 for another 2 weeks would pretty much eliminate the virus completely.

 

I dont know if business could handle that.

 

I guess they will switch from level 4 to 3 after Anzac and then sit at level 3 for 14 days before reassessing.

 

Either way, I am glad I still have a job and no change to my income, but if the lockdown increases, that situation will likely change.

 

 

Yeah there are some big divisions forming.

 

One side (NZ) that says "lets stay at home and eliminate this thing".

 

Then there's the complete opposite (Sweden) that says "people are going to die either way. Let's get it over with. Minimise the effects of the 2nd wave, isolate the elderly and vulnerable, build a herd immunity whilst keeping the economy going."

 

Then there's Aus who seem to be somewhere inbetween.

 

In my view, elimination is a little idealistic. Yes, I think a temporary elimination is possible, but how long will it last. We have to reopen borders at some stage.

 

The financial burden the public will feel by extending the lockdown, just to get that magic zero, may not be the best trade-off.

 

Edited April 19, 2020 by patches

[patham]

Yeah there are some big divisions forming.

 

One side (NZ) that says "lets stay at home and eliminate this thing".

 

Then there's the complete opposite (Sweden) that says "people are going to die either way. Let's get it over with. Minimise the effects of the 2nd wave, isolate the elderly and vulnerable, build a herd immunity whilst keeping the economy going."

 

Then there's Aus who seem to be somewhere inbetween.

 

In my view, elimination is a little idealistic. Yes, I think a temporary elimination is possible, but how long will it last. We have to reopen borders at some stage.

 

The financial burden the public will feel by extending the lockdown, just to get that magic zero, may not be the best trade-off.

 

 

The aspect that clouds matters is that politicians live for the day, not for the future decades.

 

So minimising deaths today provides a better chance of good publicity and re-election than minimising the same or more number of deaths next year, and the economy is 10 years time is some-one else's issue to fix.

 

Political NPV works on a very high discount factor !

[patches]

The aspect that clouds matters is that politicians live for the day, not for the future decades.

 

So minimising deaths today provides a better chance of good publicity and re-election than minimising the same or more number of deaths next year, and the economy is 10 years time is some-one else's issue to fix.

 

Political NPV works on a very high discount factor !

 

 

True, plus they live in a bubble. Especially career politicians. The economic affects on them (personally) are not direct. They'll still keep their jobs (even if they go out mountain biking or for a day at the beach  ), don't have to worry about their business or employer going under. They're rather insulated from it all.

[davetapson]

I think the effectiveness of the NZ lockdown has caught everyone by surprise.

 

That we are likely to eliminate it rather than 'flatten the curve' has caught everyone by surprise - and probably caused some consternaton and confusion.

 

The ideal is we're all exposed, but at very low viral loads so that most of us live - and then we can face the rest of the world.

But now we're like Kiwis and just about all the other NZ other native fauna - at risk of anything coming across the border as we don't have the tools to resist it!

[Steven Knoetze (sk27)]

Yeah, I think in general people have been doing their best to comply. So much so that every 2nd person is now a self-appointed undercover police informant

 

I think in the first week there were about 3500 reports from the public, dobbing in others for non-compliance.

 

Either way, the one thing I fear is that if those in the driver.s seat decide to extend this road-trip without letting the kids stop for a pee, we may have more and more bailing out of the station-wagon.

 

There's an underlying murmur that they might decide to extend Level 4 until after Anzac weekend, for fear that the public will use the long weekend to travel around, if Level 3 were in place.

 

1 long weekend in lockdown is hard. 2 is cruel.

 

 

Looks like they agreed, 2 more weeks before dropping to level 3 making it just after Anzac day weekend.

Then 2 weeks at level 3 before reassessing.

 

I understand the idea of elimination over flattening but part of me thinks that just opens the country up to being susceptible to the next wave of infection surely? Perhaps there may be a vaccine by then and so it is a moot point but you aren't building up herd immunity at all then.

[hayleyearth]

I can't take any more of this lockdown!!! I need out. We need out! Even our little daughter is going crazy! A drive in the car is like a drug. The word "school" sends her running for her bag and shoes and then she paces to the car.

 

I feel for her!

I need to go to work!!

I need sushi when I want it!

[Wayne Potgieter]

I can't take any more of this lockdown!!! I need out. We need out! Even our little daughter is going crazy! A drive in the car is like a drug. The word "school" sends her running for her bag and shoes and then she paces to the car.

 

I feel for her!

I need to go to work!!

I need sushi when I want it!

It really is a shame we cannot extend our bubble to just one other family if it is mutual.

[patches]

It really is a shame we cannot extend our bubble to just one other family if it is mutual.

 

We were applying some logic around this yesterday.

 

If I am an outlier from my bubble (because I go to work each day and interact with my colleagues). And one of my really good friends is married to one of my colleagues, but he has to work from home and is trapped in his bubble, with his wife being the outlier.

 

Logically there is not much issue with me hanging out with that friend, because our bubbles already overlap.

 

But the rules say otherwise.

Edited April 20, 2020 by patches

[intern]

Looks like they agreed, 2 more weeks before dropping to level 3 making it just after Anzac day weekend.

Then 2 weeks at level 3 before reassessing.

 

I understand the idea of elimination over flattening but part of me thinks that just opens the country up to being susceptible to the next wave of infection surely? Perhaps there may be a vaccine by then and so it is a moot point but you aren't building up herd immunity at all then.

 

Elimination is a pipe dream and Saint Jacinda has even gone as far now to redefine the word 'elimination' for political purposes, so elimination no longer means what you thought it did but now has a classic Orwellian twist on it. How we gonna eliminate a virus? One in which up to 80 percent of carriers are asymptomatic and probably won't ever be tested (but will infect others).

The wave of devastation never was coming in the first place. Rean Ian Harrison's expose of the modeling used by treasury. We're committing economic suicide and sleepwalking into a totalitarian society where people are encouraged to nark on their neighbours for - get this- exercising their fundamental freedoms.

While the health minister is absent mountain biking and the cops are the only ones with a cafe open.

Mark my words, the cure is going to well outweigh a disease that upwards of 99 percent of us will recover from should we get it.

[intern]

Read, not rean. 

[patham]

We were applying some logic around this yesterday.

 

If I am an outlier from my bubble (because I go to work each day and interact with my colleagues). And one of my really good friends is married to one of my colleagues, but he has to work from home and is trapped in his bubble, with his wife being the outlier.

 

Logically there is not much issue with me hanging out with that friend, because our bubbles already overlap.

 

But the rules say otherwise.

 

Don't bring logic onto my studio ! (obscure saffa reference).

 

Its like over here in Queensland. You can only exercise with one other person. However, you can have two people visit your house. Hence, if your two visitors parked down the road, you could not walk back to the car with them, lest be accused of breaking the exercise rule.

[patham]

Elimination is a pipe dream and Saint Jacinda has even gone as far now to redefine the word 'elimination' for political purposes, so elimination no longer means what you thought it did but now has a classic Orwellian twist on it. How we gonna eliminate a virus? One in which up to 80 percent of carriers are asymptomatic and probably won't ever be tested (but will infect others).

The wave of devastation never was coming in the first place. Rean Ian Harrison's expose of the modeling used by treasury. We're committing economic suicide and sleepwalking into a totalitarian society where people are encouraged to nark on their neighbours for - get this- exercising their fundamental freedoms.

While the health minister is absent mountain biking and the cops are the only ones with a cafe open.

Mark my words, the cure is going to well outweigh a disease that upwards of 99 percent of us will recover from should we get it.

 

Really, I don't know how you can expect police to do their jobs without coffee and donuts. It's like PPE for their soul.

[intern]

Watch out for do-gooders, as Clive Staples Lewis noted back in the 40s (heroic second name there, Clive):

 

“Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience. They may be more likely to go to Heaven yet at the same time likelier to make a Hell of earth. Their very kindness stings with intolerable insult. To be “cured” against one’s will and cured of states which we may not regard as disease is to be put on a level of those who have not yet reached the age of reason or those who never will; to be classed with infants, imbeciles, and domestic animals.”

[intern]

Don't bring logic onto my studio ! (obscure saffa reference).

 

Its like over here in Queensland. You can only exercise with one other person. However, you can have two people visit your house. Hence, if your two visitors parked down the road, you could not walk back to the car with them, lest be accused of breaking the exercise rule.

 

This one small example shows up the immense problems which have always, always and everywhere, led to the abject failure of command and control economies. Bureaucrats, eager as they are with their clipboards and petty rules, cannot possibly hope to imagine all the scenarios, activities, exchanges, movements and actions of free men (and women, though the latter tend to be more quiescent), let alone the immensely complex interactions of a modern market economy. So now we have all manner of absurdities...like which business are and are not 'essential' (this one's easy: they're all essential, or they would not exist in the first place), which activities are OK and which are verboten.

This whole thing stinks, enormously. I don't like existing under a jackboot, no matter how well intentioned.

[intern]

Really, I don't know how you can expect police to do their jobs without coffee and donuts. It's like PPE for their soul.

 

I too have a soul powered by coffee and donuts where possible.