Can weather reports be trusted?

[Buddah]

I hear this 60% story, i dont hear thunder!

[Napalm]

There's time restrictions when they present the weather, so while there may be 60% chances of thundershowers, they fail to say that there's a 90% chance that they're entirely wrong. 

[Buddah]

Hear hear

[steve]

Its windy....................100%

[Jokerman]

Can one trust a builder or a lawyer.........think not.........I guess weather ppl are of the same breed

 

Hmmmm, they came pretty close this morning though.....hear thunder in the Moot area of Pretoria

[snapshot]

Die weerkaart het ges? reen vir Gisteraand nie vanoggend nie

[DRIVETRAIN]

 

The weather my good people cannot be trusted all of the time..it's very unpredictable like people themselves...

 

"DT"

[scotty]

Haven't you been reading conspiracy theory books. Americans control the weather.

[AndreZA]

Here's a little thing I found out a while back on how this percentage system works. If they show the map and say half of the country is covered with rain. They then say it's got a 70% chance of rain. That does not mean that half of the country got a pretty good change of getting rain. It means that 70% of that area they are showing might get rain. So they might aswell cover the whole country and say 10% rain expected. That will mean that only 10% of the whole country might get rain.

 

Does this make sense?

 

 

[Jokerman]

Yp, I think they all dope it up and agree what they are going to tell us

 

It makes sense since they "cloud' up and then see all but what they are suppose to

 

Ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha

 

Is there any weather ppl on this site ????

[Gumpole]

tuesday morning.. iol weather report for Jhb - 100% rain. didn't bother me. went to kyalami - no rain of course.

[BaieSukkel]

Hi,

 

If you want a "better" wheather report, use the www.wheathersa.co.za site. Follow the links to aviation and then IFR/VFR flights. A page will open with actual weather and also "TAF 6-12" and TAF 18-24", these are airodrome forecasts and have a lot more info and a lot more acuracy.

 

Unfortunately it's all in code! But I'll try to explain some of it...........

 

The following is the 18-14 hour forecast for Lanseria airport.

 

FALA 190400Z 190606 06012KT 9999 BKN012 BKN080 TEMPO 0607 5000
         BR BKN009 FM0800 06010KT 9999 SCT025 BKN080 BECMG 1113
         FEW035CB SCT038 BKN080 TEMPO 1322 5000 TSRA BKN020 BECMG
         2301 SCT045 BKN100 PROB40 TEMPO 0306 3500 SHRA BR BKN100
         FEW045CB TX25/12ZTN14/03Z=

And now the decoding...............

First the name of the place FALA = Lanseria

(FAJS=JHB Int. FACT=Cape Town. FADN=Durban etc)

 

The wheather forecast was isued  190400Z - That's the 19th of the month at 0400h GMT (Greenwich Mean Time). 06h00 local time.

The forecast is valid from 190606 - 19oct 0600 to 20oct 0600 GMT. 08h00 to 08h00 local time. 

 

The wind will start off at 06012KT - north easterly at 12knots (20kph)

 

Visibility 9999 - more than 10km

 

Cloud BKN012 BKN080 - Broken at 1200ft and 8000ft (400m & 2500m above ground) - broken is near overcast.

 

There is a change TEMPO 0607 5000 BR BKN009 - temporary change between 0800h and 0900h, broken cloud at 900ft (300m above ground) - so the weather will lift somewhat. BUT the visibility will reduce to 5000m!

 

Then FM0800 06010KT 9999 SCT025 BKN080 -from 10h00 the wind will be north easterly 10knots - 17kph, visibility will be greater than 9999meters, cloud will become scattered at 2500ft (800m) and broken at 8000ft (2500m).

 

Then BECMG 1113 FEW035CB SCT038 BKN080 - becoming from 13h00 to 15h00, a few thunderclouds (CB=Cumulus Nimbus) at 3500ft (1200m), scattered cloud at 3800ft (1300m) and broken cloud at 8000ft (2500m).

 

Then TEMPO 1322 5000 TSRA BKN020 - tempo change between 15h00 and 24h00, visibility 5000meters in showers of rain and cloud broken at 2000ft (650m).

 

Thereafter BECMG 2301 SCT045 BKN100 - becoming, between 01h00 and 03h00, scattered cloud at 4500ft (1500m) and broken cloud at 10000ft (3300m).

 

Last but not least, PROB40 TEMPO 0306 3500 SHRA BR BKN100 FEW045CB TX25/12ZTN14/03Z= - There's a 40% chance of rain showers tomorow morning between 05h00 and 08h00, visibilty wil reduce to 3500m in mist (BR) and rain showers (SHRA), cloud broken at 10000ft (3300m) and a few cumulus nimbus thunder cloud at 4500ft (1500m).

 

Temp high (TX) at 25deg C at 14h00, and low (TN) at 14deg C at 0500h.

 

The times used in these forecast are all GMT, that's 2 hours earlier than local. So when it states BECMG 1113  , it means 11h00 to 13h00 GMT which is 13h00 to 15h00 local time.

  The nice thing about these forecasts are that they are updated every hour, the downside is that I've probably confused everyone so muchhttp://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/23/23_33_7.gif that they would rather go and just ride regardless of the weather.........

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.smileycentral.com/sigpc=ZSzeb097&amppp=ZNxmk134YYZA

[scotty]

Damn thats a lot of reading. All i do is stick my head out the window and look at the sky. scotty2006-10-19 02:02:18

[AndreZA]

I use the good old weather rock.

 

The weather rock is a large rock suspended by a chain from the center of a 6 ft. tripod made of fallen branches. Quite a rustic scene.  Next to it, there was a sign. . . .

The weather rock prophet
This rock is the perfect weather indicator. It never fails. It is
more accurate than your local weatherman; it is 100% correct. This is how it works:

A dry rock means fair weather.
A wet rock means it's raining.
A dusty rock means a dust storm.
A swaying rock means the wind is blowing.
A shadow under the rock means the sun is shining.
If the rock is jumping up and down, an earthquake is upon us.
A white rock means there is a snow storm.