Basso - too strong to be true...........

[epoh]

Giro d' Italia 2006 - second part

 

By: Michele Ferrari

 

Published: 29 May 2006

 

 

Going

really flat out, in this last Giro d' Italia, Ivan Basso maybe went

only on the last 3 km of the stage in Aprica, when he willingly and

rather surgically dropped Gilberto Simoni from his wheel.

 

This at least was my impression on TV.

 

On

all the other climbs of the stage race, Ivan gave the impression to

have good margin, trying to control his efforts with the perspective of

the incoming stages.

 

A soft, round pedaling, set on higher

cadences than the past, allowed him to climb even the steepest

gradients without getting out of the saddle, showing a great efficiency

of the technical gesture.

 

Even on the Mortirolo he confirmed

the performances he expressed on the previous climbs: 44'30" was his

time together with Simoni (VAM=1750 m/h).

 

Basso seemed to have remarkably improved his climbing if compared to last year when he never expressed himself above 1700 m/h.

This

is surely due to a lower body weight and more ideal pedaling cadences

for his power outputs, always around 85-95RPM in the decisive moments.

 

He

didn't really have any adversary up to his level and this surely has

made it all easier together with a course that seemed to be extremely

favorable: completely flat time trials without sharp corners and the

first 3 mountain stages with a single final climb that allowed his

superior physical level to prevail without any problem.

[Gumpole]

I dont think Landis is innocent but... with all the documentation around his training, physical abilities etc, all the power profiles for all the stages of the Tour his performance cannot be thought of as incredible. It was just another day at the office. The rivals completely stuffed up tactically, thats all. Just like LA winning the tour with such a superiour 'engine' - not really surprising.

If Landis was cheating at the Tour (blood doping for example), he has been doping continuously for the last few years - his performances have been very consistant.

Gumpole2006-09-19 01:02:32

[widget]

Bikemax - I see differant figures for Landis.

 

According to some figures I saw he only averaged around 280 watts for most of stage 17 and was able to stay away.

 

This says two things to me,either the peleton was not trying to catch him (doubtfull)or the rest of the peleton was so tired that exceeding that output rate of effort to catch him was not an option?  

 

Of course we have to assume, and I am prepared to accept, he far exceeded the 400watt barrier when he attacked, possibly even going as high as 500watts output or a bit more, but this is for a very short period of time, maybe 40 minutes, and he had to slow down the effort.

 

I really do not believe that any athlete can maintain a 400 watt output for extended periods of 3/4 hours never mind days.

 

I also think many athletes like to employ a bit of "athletic license" and overstate their ability, its good to demoralize the opposition and make themselves look good, but the fact is, the body has very definate physical limits that are simply not negotiable under "unassisted" conditions.

 

Obviously drugs and various other external conditions extend these boundaries and make the rest of the world wonder "how the *** did he do that."

[BikeMax]

Bikemax - I see differant figures for Landis.

 

According to some figures I saw he only averaged around 280 watts for most of stage 17 and was able to stay away.

 

This says two things to me' date='either the peleton was not trying to catch him (doubtfull)or the rest of the peleton was so tired that exceeding that output rate of effort to catch him was not an option?  

 

Of course we have to assume, and I am prepared to accept, he far exceeded the 400watt barrier when he attacked, possibly even going as high as 500watts output or a bit more, but this is for a very short period of time, maybe 40 minutes, and he had to slow down the effort.

 

I really do not believe that any athlete can maintain a 400 watt output for extended periods of 3/4 hours never mind days.

 

I also think many athletes like to employ a bit of "athletic license" and overstate their ability, its good to demoralize the opposition and make themselves look good, but the fact is, the body has very definate physical limits that are simply not negotiable under "unassisted" conditions.

 

Obviously drugs and various other external conditions extend these boundaries and make the rest of the world wonder "how the *** did he do that."

[/quote']

 

Widget, you are correct but it needs some clarification - here are the headline figures;

 

- 5 hours 23 minutes and 36 seconds.

- Covering 200.5 kilometers (130 km alone in the wind).

- At a speed of 37.175 km/hr.

- Averaging 281 watts when moving for the whole ride and 318 watts over the last two hours.

- Averaging 324 watts while pedaling for the whole ride and 364 watts over the last 2 hours.

- At an average cadence of 89 rpm.

- Transferring 5,456 Kjoules of energy to his Cycleops PowerTap.

- Taking, no joke, a total of 70 water bottles (480 ml each) from the car to keep himself cool and hydrated.

- Attacking about a quarter of the way up the Col des Saisies for 30 seconds at 544 watts, which settled into a 5-minute peak of 451 watts, which continued for 10 minutes at an average of power of 431 watts, and left everyone in his dust after 30 minutes at an average power of 401 watts.

- Spending 13.2% of his time or 43 minutes coasting like a rocket on the descents and another 60% between 4 to 7 watts per kilogram of body weight (aka, the pain cave).

- Holding onto 373 watts over the Col de Joux-Plane.

- Hitting a max speed of 83.7 km/hr (51.9 mph) and flying like a Phoenix on his way to the most incredible moment in sports I have ever witnessed.

 

Col des Saisies (6.4%): 395 watts in 36:55.
Col des Aravis (7.1%): 371 watts in 16:49.
Col de la Colombiere (5.8%): 392 watts in 27:45.
Cote de Chatillion-sur-Cluses (4.9%): 374 watts in 11:07.
Col de Joux-Plane (8.5%): 372 watts in 37:34.

 

More interesting, is the fact that over the course of the Tour, Floyd's best power output for 10-minutes didn't actually happen in the race. It actually happened on Monday's rest day when he decided to open it up on a hill near the hotel and cracked 460 watts.

They did chase after it was too late but he did put down some serious numbers over a long period and in less than ideal conditions.

Over 400w for an hour is very doable by top riders as has been shown by my earlier figures re the hour record. Landis did not slow down the effort once he had attacked as you can see from the power output on the later climbs - he simply controlled his output and gave it horns on all the climbs.

[widget]

Very respectable figures Bikemax - but I guess the cynics will say it was "assisted".

 

I am prepared to conceed 360watts as he managed as acceptable given his size and weight, but now we have to look at that further in context.

 

If Landis only managed (lets average it) 380watts over 5 mountain tops, is it not fair to be suspicious of Bassos " well over 400watts over 6 mountain stages"?

 

 

[BikeMax]

Very respectable figures Bikemax - but I guess the cynics will say it was "assisted".

 

I am prepared to conceed 360watts as he managed as acceptable given his size and weight' date=' but now we have to look at that further in context.

 

If Landis only managed (lets average it) 380watts over 5 mountain tops, is it not fair to be suspicious of Bassos " well over 400watts over 6 mountain stages"?

 

 

[/quote']

 

Assisted or not - not able to say.

 

This was Stage 17 of the TdeF following a horrible day the previous day and in a tour with a lot of pressure and stress. The Tour is also universally regarded as a harder and faster race all round than the Giro.

 

06 Giro saw Basso in complete control and very relaxed and unstressed - with that in mind I think that 400w over the last 6 climbs is reasonable - another 20w from a top rider in a fresher state.

[BikeMax]

How about this in stage 19 final TT for a duration of 68 mins;

 

For his Tour winning performance, I estimate his average power output at 394 Watts, about 3.5% better than he did in the final time trial last year, but not as strong as the 410 Watts that he unleashed on the first time trial. It was plenty.

 

So even in a very very fatigued state he managed just under 400w for over an hour and not on a climb - so harder to get the power down.

BikeMax2006-09-19 03:16:17

[widget]

"06 Giro saw Basso in complete control and very relaxed and unstressed - with that in mind I think that 400w over the last 6 climbs is reasonable - another 20w from a top rider in a fresher state".

 

Hmmm, I shall have to think about that Bikemax!!

 

I am actually quite interested in these figures, because from all my experience the physical side of the body gives out substantially after the mental side (ie) usually when the mind says enough, there is still something left in the tank, or the brain will convince you its time to slow down for eg - this is not unusual, almost all endurance athletes under stress will have a mind problem before a physical one - but here it would appear that there was no shut down mentally or physically, in fact the figures remain fairly constant even though both athletes are fatiguing - which in any trainers book is odd, if not suspicious.

 

Certainly an athlete under severe stress (and I think Basso was also under stress) will slow down involuntarly when a certain thresh hold is reached - the mind stops the body, its just physics!.

 

But in both these cases this dos not appear to happen which is odd.

 

[BikeMax]

"06 Giro saw Basso in complete control and very relaxed and unstressed - with that in mind I think that 400w over the last 6 climbs is reasonable - another 20w from a top rider in a fresher state".

 

Hmmm' date=' I shall have to think about that Bikemax!!

 

I am actually quite interested in these figures, because from all my experience the physical side of the body gives out substantially after the mental side (ie) usually when the mind says enough, there is still something left in the tank, or the brain will convince you its time to slow down for eg - this is not unusual, almost all endurance athletes under stress will have a mind problem before a physical one - but here it would appear that there was no shut down mentally or physically, in fact the figures remain fairly constant even though both athletes are fatiguing - which in any trainers book is odd, if not suspicious.

 

Certainly an athlete under severe stress (and I think Basso was also under stress) will slow down involuntarly when a certain thresh hold is reached - the mind stops the body, its just physics!.

 

But in both these cases this dos not appear to happen which is odd.

 

[/quote']

 

You are correct I think, If I look at the power files I have for this weekends Red Hill race for example, the power drops off by ~5% each time up the climb due to cumulative fatigue.

 

Two points to consider however in this regard;

 

1. Landis was riding well below threshold at ~380w whereas I was riding above threshold trying to hang on. He was able to set the pace because he was out in front and therefore "measure" his output.

 

2. Possible effect of Test as a PED is to increase mental fortitude and aggression. Lim says this about Landis on the morning of stage 17;

 

"This morning he was so angry...so mad at himself. He had the music cranked to max as he paced around his tiny hotel room like a wild animal, foraging for his belongings so he could pack his suitcase for the transfer. His appetite for redemption was so raw and you could see his thirst for blood as he proclaimed, "I'm the strongest guy in this race! And yesterday was crap! I may lose this Tour, but it's going to cost them!"

Sounds like he was "mentally" more than ready

[BikeMax]

Widget  - here are some more numbers (you asked for it)

 

DONT LET JASON SEE 

 

LA Can?t ?Do It?

Why an Hour Record Attempt Might Not Happen 

6/26/05 - Words and images by Kraig Willett 

Despite the re-assurances of his current coach, and the empirical extrapolations of academia, I don?t think that LA can surpass the hour record held by Chris Boardman.  Not that it matters, though, since LA is hanging up his wheels in a few weeks?  What I?m about to present may seem like pretty tenuous evidence in support of a pretty bold claim (one that?s sure to draw the ire of a few people); however, relax folks, it?s just bike racin? ? and I?m just an abaqus-movin?-slide-rulin?-pencil-pushin?-not-much-smarter-than-a-box-of-rocks-dork! 

Ya know, I?ll never understand how professionally run teams allow little nuggets of information to be released to the public.  Take, for example, the photos posted on LA?s coach?s website a few months back: 

http://www.trainright.com/page.asp?page_id=content&page_content=gallery&cat=cycling&sub=TDF&gal=Wind%20Tunnel

That photo gallery linked above is one or two images short, though.  You see, I sent an email to their web admin just after that page was put up ? here is the original email:

===

Original Message-----

From: Kraig Willett [mailto:kdubenterprise@adelphia.net]

Sent: Saturday, February 19, 2005 5:54 PM

To: 'webmaster@trainright.com'

Subject: lance/ekimov tunnel pics

 

Just a quick heads up ? the information you provided here:

 

http://www.trainright.com/page.asp?page_id=content&page_content=gallery&cat=cycling&sub=TDF&gal=Wind%20Tunnel

 

has been extremely helpful ? you might consider removing these images, though, as LANCE?s competition/media speculators could do the same thing I have done with the information?

 

best regards,

Kraig Willett

k-dub enterprises\

home of www.biketechreview.com

and www.competeclean.org

Shortly after that email, one or two images were removed from the page? But at least one of those images was not removed from the server (don?t blame me if the link below doesn?t work after this article is published!): 

http://www.trainright.com/photogallery/images/Windtunnelday047.jpg

The image linked to above is but one piece of  evidence in support of why Ekimov seems to be so competitive in world class TT?s; it shows that he possesses exceptional aerodynamic qualities ? in my opinion, that guy is gifted.

There are some other beauties in that gallery of LA in his aero position which confirm, for me anyways, that LA has no shortages in the power production department?  LA has always looked like a piece of plywood to me, but - hey man, whatever works!  Dude has won more Tours than anyone else ? that says something, eh?

Now, I?ve tested quite a few elite athletes (and many weekend warriors) in the same wind tunnel as LA & co. (   www.lswt.com,http://www.multisports.com/windtunnel_camp.shtml  ), so those monitors in the background on trainright.com are pretty familiar to me ? they provide a bit of insight into LA?s aerodynamic drag, and subsequently, just how fast he could theoretically go during an hour record attempt.  The number of interest is a four digit one (drag in grams) in the upper left corner of the monitor in the background of this image:

http://www.trainright.com/photogallery/images/Windtunnelday006.jpg 

I figure LA?s drag in grams in his TT position is something like 2952 grams at ~30 mph.  That?s well in excess of 6lbs (at 30 mph), the supposed gold standard according to some aero guru?s.  Wanting confirmation of this guess (yeah, that image is a bit fuzzy, eh?), I conducted an unscientific poll on the BTR forum:

http://biketechreview.com/v-web/bulletin/bb/viewtopic.php?t=120

The takeaway from this poll was that the second digit in my original guess is debatable.  However, I am confident that the second number in my guess of 2952 is not a: ?7?, ?2?, ?8?, ?0?, or a ?5?.  That leaves us with the possibility of it being a 1,3,4,6 or a 9.  The only number for the second digit that makes sense to me (after investigation of the linked Ekimov image above, and analyses of flat TT?s and hillclimb TT?s ) is the number 9.  So, in my opinion, LA creates approximately 2950 grams of drag at ~30 mph.  For those more comfortable with CdA (drag coefficient times frontal area) values (since overall drag is a function of air density and relative wind speed), LA has a rather unspectacular CdA of ~0.266 m^2.  In comparison, I would estimate Ekimov (who is approximately the same mass/size of LA) to have a CdA of  ~0.232 m^2.  Whoa, that?s an approximate 13% difference!  No wonder Eki is competitive with LA in flat TT?s, but not the mountains!

OK, so I?m pretty confident that LA can produce lots of power to overcome his less than stellar TT aerodynamics when it counts (that?s why he wins, or is competitive in Tour TT?s, right?), but just exactly how much power can ?the one? produce?

It?s best to estimate the supply side of the equation of motion (i.e, power generation) during a hill-climb TT ? in this way, the unknown/variable effects of aerodynamics are minimized.  I took a look at last year?s Alpe d?huez TT to ballpark what LA can do for an hour long effort.  I modeled the course, took local atmospherics (which affect air density), and optimal pacing into consideration (which can also affect total elapsed time) and came up with the following estimates in terms of Watts per kilogram (W/kg)  for the top 20 of this stage during the 2004 Tour: 

<?:namespace prefix = v ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" /><?:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

 

 

My estimates show that LA put out around 6.38 W/kg for this 40 minute effort.  This is pretty spectacular relative to his competition, and also compared to his effort just a few weeks prior during the Dauphine Libere during the Ventoux stage:

 

 

 

If we were to adjust his Alpe d?Huez time (where he timed his fitness just right) to an approximate hour long effort, I?d estimate that he would be capable of producing around 6.18 W/kg.  Assuming an Alpe d?Huez mass of 73kg that means that I?d estimate Lance would be capable of putting out approximately 452 watts for an hour at a mean elevation of 1250 meters.  All else being equal, this hand-waving-back-of-the-envelope-calcu-malation says that LA has a Watts per CdA ratio of ~ 452/0.266=1710 W/m^2.  For reference, this is a full 15%+ less than a similar technologically equipped Miguel Indurain during his record hour in 1994 (Padilla et al, 2000).

If these numbers are accurate, this means that in his current TT position at optimal fitness, LA would have had his lunch handed to him in a TT vs Indurain during his prime. 

So, how about the ?real man?s hour? record currently held by Chris Boardman?  In order to gain insight on this record, we have to know what Boardman?s/Merckx?s Watts per CdA ratio was (W/Cda).  According to the same Padilla paper mentioned above, it has been estimated that Merckx had a W/CdA ratio of 1450 W/m^2.  That?s pretty good.  How does LA stack up?

Well, we have two pieces of information about LA?s non-aero bar TT position CdA.  The first is this image:

http://www.trainright.com/photogallery/images/Windtunnelday007.jpg

(again, don?t blame me if that link doesn?t work)

which is of LA on the hoods of his TT bike (i.e, aero wheels, helmet, frame, etc?) -> the drag is 3708 grams at 30 mph.  This approximate 25% increase from his TT position is consistent with my experience measuring Cd and frontal areas of cyclists (don?t take my word for it, though, try it yourself!).  The other piece of information is that of the AMD info-mercial that was aired on OLN during the criterium dauphine libere a couple weeks ago.  In that spot, there is a shot of LA on his hour record bike (which might be UCI hour record illegal) ? the drag on the screen shows 3416 grams at 30 mph.  Well, this just isn?t consistent with neither my experience, nor the digital image overlays I created to compare the LA TT drops position to the AMD info-mercial position). 

Knowing that the ?truth? is somewhere between what has been communicated to the public in a marketing fashion, and what some skeptic like me has to say ? we can safely estimate that LA  probably has drag closer to 3708 g (or a CdA of 0.334) than 3416 g.  Let?s call it 3660 grams, or an even 0.33 CdA.  So, this would make LA?s W/CdA ratio in his prime fitness to be around 452/0.33 = 1370 W/m^2, which puts LA about 5% short of Merckx/Boardman?s values of ~ 1450 W/m^2.  If LA were to attempt the record at an elevation of 1250 meters, where the air density is lower, LA would still probably come up over 1000 meters short.

I?m convinced LA couldn?t have broken the hour unless he drastically changed his riding position in order to improve his aerodynamics.

 

[Jason]

LA will knock the T off can't... and I promise I didn't read.. enjoyed the pictures though... so eki=la...i didn't read... Lance is what? the best climber... 1000m short? Yeah 1000m short of 200km's in an hour... I seriously didn't read your post BikeMax .

[BikeMax]

LA will knock the T off can't... and I promise I didn't read.. enjoyed the pictures though... so eki=la...i didn't read... Lance is what? the best climber... 1000m short? Yeah 1000m short of 200km's in an hour... I seriously didn't read your post BikeMax .

 

You must have some sort of "Lance Antennae" - how did you find that reference to "Lance" and "Can't" 

 

This could be a fun game.. post something about Lance, and not winning, in some arbitrary thread and see how long it takes Jason to find it and respond

[widget]

"Assuming an Alpe d?Huez mass of 73kg that means that I?d estimate Lance would be capable of putting out approximately 452 watts for an hour at a mean elevation of 1250 meters."

I can accept that, it sort of ties in with logical thinking whereby LA looked to improve time by other methods like clothing,bike design etc - this ties in with any medical facts which state that a human can only go so far (there are finite parameters within which the body can function) without "assistance" tecnical, chemical or otherwise.

As for the other figures I will have to digest them a bit, but glancing through they dont seem odd.

 

As an aside, when it comes to possible "curved balls" or waaay out of the books records, I always refer back to the world breath hold competition, I forget dates now but some fellow claimed to be able to hold his breath for more than 13 minutes, this was astounding, as all medical data on human phisiology pointed towards this been an absolute impossibility, so he was tested - he made 14 minutes - the medical world was in shock, how was it possible, so they dug a little deeper and guess what - HE CHEATED - it was found he breathed pure O2 for 40 minutes before been tested.

 

To this day nobody has surpassed the medical limit of (I think) 8 minutes and 49secs give or take a few secs.

Medical statistics and human phisiology prove this is just not possible unaided.  

 

So when I see some stats I have to wonder...........!!

[Gumpole]

- this ties in with any medical facts which state that a human can only go so far (there are finite parameters within which the body can function) without "assistance" tecnical, chemical or otherwise.

But medical 'facts' are only based on what somebody has achieved already, so as soon as someone comes with better genetics, and or training, and or equipment... and or cheating these benchmarks will move.

A while ago it was considered impossible to break the 4 minute mile... by the experts. Surely the thousands of sub 4 min runners aren't all cheats?

And we cant say that 2006 is the point in history where the human race reached its full potential. I am sure that the 2 hour marathon will be run in my lifetime - without 'cheating'.

[widget]

Hmm, you have a point Gumpole, but what I mean is the body can only do so much, its not possible to be without air to the brain for 14 minutes (unassisted) without suffering damage or death, sure we have people drowned for 20 minutes, but its in freezing water, the body has shut down etc.

 

The same in running, cycling, whatever, its not possible to maintain a massive given output over an extended period, muscles tire,the brain tires,tendons break,the cardio vascular system can no longer cope, the liver gives in and you WILL stop - its just plain normal human phisiology.

 

Within reason certain parameters can be broken, I am with you there, but its a genetic movement, the parents pass excellant genes on to their kids who pass better genes on again and eventually, sure most barriers will break, but in this or the very near future I cant see it. 

[nochain]

Bikemax and Widget very interesting discussion ,looking at the figures of Landis on that day compared to some of the figure's mentioned here it really does not look like a super human effort , very very good but not abnormal!!I am sure if you have a look at some of his other stats from other races and of that tour itself ,like the first TT for instance it would show that he is very capable of doing this.The problem I have is that if the figures on that day was aided(Drugs) what does that say about all the other drug test that he went through on the other days where he was able to show similar efforts ,and came out clean he must have gone through at least  or  20 or 30 test this year while racing and winning ,if he was clean at all of the other races why would he need to take drugs to ride at a level that appears to be within what he has shown to be capable of?