Tour de France 2019

[Gen]

No Gilbert in DQ team for TDF[emoji3166]

[DieselnDust]

Guys are super quick to spank all over Bernal, but in truth not many 22 year olds are, or have been capable of winning a Grand Tour.

 

3 weeks is a helluvu long time to stay physically and mentally sharp.

 

I'm not convinced him riding super domestique for Gee is 'holding him back'. I would see that as 'developing his talent' and 'adding more substance to his promise'.

 

I think Ineos would be brave and a little silly to put all their eggs at TDF in his basket. In a few years time, if he continues his rapid development and positive gains, definitely.

 

But now let him develop as a super dom, learn race tactics, team work, sit through a few grand tours and stay injury free.

 

Rushing a guy ahead of a proven winner on glimpses is unfortunately all the rage these days and rarely does it pay off, in any sport.

 

 

I hear you and these are all valid points. Lets cast our gaze back in history and looks at all the past greats who have won the tour.

Nearly all won their first tour between ages 22-25yrs old. Egan is 22 now so he's within that window where previous greats have emerged as tour winners.

This older rider  winning the tour is a more recent development.

 

Merck won his first TDF at 24

Hinault won his first tour at 23

Anquetil at 22

Lemond at 25 (should have been 24 or even at 23 even)

 

It is by no means inconceivable that Bernal cannot win at 22. the chances are more in his favour but he races on a team that has the ambition of placing its older rider higher up the pecking order than they sometimes deserve.

[SwissVan]

I hear you and these are all valid points. Lets cast our gaze back in history and looks at all the past greats who have won the tour.

Nearly all won their first tour between ages 22-25yrs old. Egan is 22 now so he's within that window where previous greats have emerged as tour winners.

This older rider winning the tour is a more recent development.

 

Merck won his first TDF at 24

Hinault won his first tour at 23

Anquetil at 22

Lemond at 25 (should have been 24 or even at 23 even)

 

It is by no means inconceivable that Bernal cannot win at 22. the chances are more in his favour but he races on a team that has the ambition of placing its older rider higher up the pecking order than they sometimes deserve.

LAnce was 28 I think for his first TDF title, and look what happened.....

 

Seems like < 25 is the lucky ???? age

[Jewbacca]

I hear you and these are all valid points. Lets cast our gaze back in history and looks at all the past greats who have won the tour.

Nearly all won their first tour between ages 22-25yrs old. Egan is 22 now so he's within that window where previous greats have emerged as tour winners.

This older rider  winning the tour is a more recent development.

 

Merck won his first TDF at 24

Hinault won his first tour at 23

Anquetil at 22

Lemond at 25 (should have been 24 or even at 23 even)

 

It is by no means inconceivable that Bernal cannot win at 22. the chances are more in his favour but he races on a team that has the ambition of placing its older rider higher up the pecking order than they sometimes deserve.

I would love for him to win, but I do think that modern athletes and modern racing has made it more difficult for youngsters to win, with emphasis put on the amount of money thrown at the team. A proven campaigner will likely pip a very promising youngster in terms of support.

 

If Ineos back him, back him 100% and do it now, then ja. But no way can someone win a GT fighting for scraps these days.

 

Winning margins are coming down, GT winner stage wins becoming rare and if the break has someone withing 15 minutes of the leader it seldom gets allowed to go.

 

Up to the dominance of Lance, things were a bit less scientific than they are now and I don't think (again, armchair coach) that all participants at the GT's were as close to each other % wise as they are now.

 

The margins these days are tiny.

 

Science and the nature of the racing has changed things and changed them rapidly.

 

But, please, let me be proved wrong! I love a good youngster preying on the old dogs story..

[DieselnDust]

LAnce was 28 I think for his first TDF title, and look what happened.....

 

Seems like < 25 is the lucky age

 

 

Funny about that...

 

the EPO era also seems to have ushered in an older generation of first time winners....

[Jewbacca]

Funny about that...

 

the EPO era also seems to have ushered in an older generation of first time winners....

Is this not a 'chicken egg' scenario? 

 

Like, with the introduction of big team money came the 'focus' where a rider like Lance just rode the TDF and not the classics or the other pro race season. With this, the pressure to win increased, so doping increased too.

 

The cycle (excuse the pun) started other cycles which just spun out of control.

[Gen]

I hear you and these are all valid points. Lets cast our gaze back in history and looks at all the past greats who have won the tour.

Nearly all won their first tour between ages 22-25yrs old. Egan is 22 now so he's within that window where previous greats have emerged as tour winners.

This older rider winning the tour is a more recent development.

 

Merck won his first TDF at 24

Hinault won his first tour at 23

Anquetil at 22

Lemond at 25 (should have been 24 or even at 23 even)

 

It is by no means inconceivable that Bernal cannot win at 22. the chances are more in his favour but he races on a team that has the ambition of placing its older rider higher up the pecking order than they sometimes deserve.

Contador 24

 

Ullrich 23, and he placed second the year before he won the TDF.

 

The only reason iI don't see why Bernal won't have a really good shot at the GC is if he himself decides that it is too soon.

 

They will still go in with the strongest team IMO

[DieselnDust]

I would love for him to win, but I do think that modern athletes and modern racing has made it more difficult for youngsters to win, with emphasis put on the amount of money thrown at the team. A proven campaigner will likely pip a very promising youngster in terms of support.

 

If Ineos back him, back him 100% and do it now, then ja. But no way can someone win a GT fighting for scraps these days.

 

Winning margins are coming down, GT winner stage wins becoming rare and if the break has someone withing 15 minutes of the leader it seldom gets allowed to go.

 

Up to the dominance of Lance, things were a bit less scientific than they are now and I don't think (again, armchair coach) that all participants at the GT's were as close to each other % wise as they are now.

 

The margins these days are tiny.

 

Science and the nature of the racing has changed things and changed them rapidly.

 

But, please, let me be proved wrong! I love a good youngster preying on the old dogs story..

 

 

 

Definitely

good sports science is more accessible and more broadly accepted than it was 20years ago.

Paul Koechli was a good sports scientist and his methods worked. Cyril Guimard  was a good coach who had a very good empirical understanding of how athletes bodies worked. But also in those days the riders themselves were the bigger differentiator. They had their own methods and stuck to them religiously. The information age has probably brought with it more access to noise and bad science which has resulted in some Sports wobblies and the EPO thing really skewed the picture to a large extent.

More rider are able to ride close to their design peak than in previous eras and this tightens up the competition. The one undeniable physiological fact is that younger riders recover better and have higher peak energy levels. So in an equal environment they should perform more consistently.

I'm going out on  a limb and root for Bernal, mostly because there's just something slimey about GT that I can't quite put my finger on

[Gen]

Okay.. I just saw Astana's team for TDF [emoji33] that is a strong lineup.

[DieselnDust]

Is this not a 'chicken egg' scenario? 

 

Like, with the introduction of big team money came the 'focus' where a rider like Lance just rode the TDF and not the classics or the other pro race season. With this, the pressure to win increased, so doping increased too.

 

The cycle (excuse the pun) started other cycles which just spun out of control.

 

 

 

Maybe. Indurain was also a TDF specialist and took 2 Giro /TDF doubles. Also started winning later and consistently before falling off the cliff at age 33.

 

Armstrong took a more professional approach to doping and we now know that the limited focus of his racing schedule was more to better hide the doping than actual rest and freshlegs (although I'm sure there is an element of science there)

[Jewbacca]

Definitely

good sports science is more accessible and more broadly accepted than it was 20years ago.

Paul Koechli was a good sports scientist and his methods worked. Cyril Guimard  was a good coach who had a very good empirical understanding of how athletes bodies worked. But also in those days the riders themselves were the bigger differentiator. They had their own methods and stuck to them religiously. The information age has probably brought with it more access to noise and bad science which has resulted in some Sports wobblies and the EPO thing really skewed the picture to a large extent.

More rider are able to ride close to their design peak than in previous eras and this tightens up the competition. The one undeniable physiological fact is that younger riders recover better and have higher peak energy levels. So in an equal environment they should perform more consistently.

I'm going out on  a limb and root for Bernal, mostly because there's just something slimey about GT that I can't quite put my finger on

I just want someone NOT from Sky/Ineos to win.

 

In my mind they are as bad as Astana but preach clean, honest racing ignoring the kerfuffles they have created... 

 

If Fuglsang wins I will be happy but would love it to be one of the other teams

[DieselnDust]

I just want someone NOT from Sky/Ineos to win.

 

In my mind they are as bad as Astana but preach clean, honest racing ignoring the kerfuffles they have created... 

 

If Fuglsang wins I will be happy but would love it to be one of the other teams

 

 

Fuglsang would awesome!

 

But maybe this is Movistar's year. Landa is looking leaner than last year.

[lechatnoir]

personally, i hope Andre Greipel  does well.

[Zorro5614]

 

 

But maybe this is Movistar's year. Landa is looking leaner than last year.

Movistar had an extremely good team at the Giro.  If they can support their top guys like they did there, they are serious contenders

 

That's why I felt so sorry for Roglic at the Giro, no support when it got tough

 

I just don't like Quintana

[Zorro5614]

I will be rooting for Bernal

[Jewbacca]

Fuglsang would awesome!

 

But maybe this is Movistar's year. Landa is looking leaner than last year.

Yeah, but again, a split team.

 

I'm almost certain they are a split camp regarding NQ and Landa. 

 

Which ever way we look at it, all the jersey races look like they are wide open this year. Even Nibbles on tired legs should be eyeing up yellow or Polka dot....