New Zealand - The Good, The Bad and The Ugly.

[patches]

How much Kiwis spend on travel, according to Tony Alexander (I suspect that part of this is that everywhere is cheap compared to NZ... but having not made it off the NI (Rangitoto is as far as I've got, not even Waiheke   ) since I arrived in Oct 2018 it's just conjecture for me):

 

"... spending $10bn previously allocated to overseas travel each year, we have seen a surge in residential property purchases develop in this unusual point in time."

 

$10b Kiwi.  Not peanuts.

 

I wonder what the net balance of inward vs outward tourism is?  Could be lockdown has been more injurious to external tourism than local...

 

That's a Jaffa trap Many Aucklanders don't get past their batches and Queenstown is the only South Island location they can point to on a map

 

It is tricky though with travel by car being so slow, and many tourist attractions geared for international visitors (and their deep pockets). That's why regions like the West Coast (and even tourist-mecca Queenstown) have been hit so hard. Locals cannot afford the upmarket experiences (or are just not willing to pay for them, when most are happy with a stay in a Top 10 Holiday Park).

 

The local tourism industry has been trying hard with annoying songs like the "Do something new New Zealand", and discounted rates to try keep things ticking over. I would have never considered the 2 week South Island camper-van trip I did last October, had it been full price.

 

That said, I have a few friends that had big overseas trips planned for 2020. They ended up diverting the resources and energy into things like starting a family, buying into a business, or going back to uni to study (2 of the 3 couples already owned property).

 

So I can definitely see how others in similar situations have traded in their world tours for a rung on that property ladder. And with current prices (AKL average reported to be in excess of $1.2m now), I think travel & tourism is going to be less and less of a priority.

[Wayne Potgieter]

How much Kiwis spend on travel, according to Tony Alexander (I suspect that part of this is that everywhere is cheap compared to NZ... but having not made it off the NI (Rangitoto is as far as I've got, not even Waiheke   ) since I arrived in Oct 2018 it's just conjecture for me):

 

"... spending $10bn previously allocated to overseas travel each year, we have seen a surge in residential property purchases develop in this unusual point in time."

 

$10b Kiwi.  Not peanuts.

 

I wonder what the net balance of inward vs outward tourism is?  Could be lockdown has been more injurious to external tourism than local...

I have a client in Christchurch that makes super expensive designer furniture. The kind of stuff you see in magazines and are not allowed to put your feet on.

 

I went to go see him straight after lockdown ended and he said the me that his biggest competitor has been tourism. Folks spend heaps on lavish overseas trips, but now that they cant fly anywhere, they are investing in their homes.

 

He was rubbing his hands like Scrooge McDuck.

[Steven Knoetze (sk27)]

As someone not even across yet, still wait for those pesky borders to open, this is concerning.

Seems most here have luckily entered the property market and that is good for you guys. Seems the property sector in NZ is pretty shocking at the moment.

 

https://www.sunlive.co.nz/news/267817-beachfront-hut-on-sleds-sold-26m.html?fbclid=IwAR2Z9RJPB2nIV1_kA69G1W6Dkjnp6QD7Q0zu7b37O0wvooLUOhaXlGsF0Vc

 

I suppose this is prime property so not indicative of the market as a whole but generally speaking it seems the market is massively over-priced. That's from my view, looking at it from afar so please don't shred me too hard. It is simply my opinion.

[davetapson]

As someone not even across yet, still wait for those pesky borders to open, this is concerning.

Seems most here have luckily entered the property market and that is good for you guys. Seems the property sector in NZ is pretty shocking at the moment.

 

https://www.sunlive.co.nz/news/267817-beachfront-hut-on-sleds-sold-26m.html?fbclid=IwAR2Z9RJPB2nIV1_kA69G1W6Dkjnp6QD7Q0zu7b37O0wvooLUOhaXlGsF0Vc

 

I suppose this is prime property so not indicative of the market as a whole but generally speaking it seems the market is massively over-priced. That's from my view, looking at it from afar so please don't shred me too hard. It is simply my opinion.

 

 

Yeah, that's like saying "Check, a designer shack on Clifton beach is expensive".

 

But yep, property is not cheap here, anywhere.

 

There are some places where the income/property price ratio are better than others, but nowhere is it cheap.

 

Property price vs Income from Core Logic below.

Couple of things to think about:

House price demand driven by

- lowest ever interest rates

- cash in pocket due to Covid travel restrictions

- low LVR reqts

- folk returning to NZ with cash (lots) in their pockets

- no capital gains tax charged on investment properties

- can claim interest cost back from tax

 

These dropping:

- evidence interest rates will rise (longer term fixed rates now 3.5% or so)

- borders beginning to open

- LVR reqts for investment properties becoming quite stringent

- they say more folk will return to NZ post Covid, Tony Alexander says not. (watch this space)

- talk about CGT

- removing allowance to claim interest costs from tax (this going to be an investment property killer) - personally I think this is wrong, although I can see the point.  Either allow business costs to be claimed, or don't.  Don't fiddle.

 

So... likelihood is that property prices will stagnate, maybe even drop a little. But no one can see the future...

 

Bottom line: Go live in Christchurch.

Edited May 5, 2021 by davetapson

[Wayne Potgieter]

As someone not even across yet, still wait for those pesky borders to open, this is concerning.

Seems most here have luckily entered the property market and that is good for you guys. Seems the property sector in NZ is pretty shocking at the moment.

 

https://www.sunlive.co.nz/news/267817-beachfront-hut-on-sleds-sold-26m.html?fbclid=IwAR2Z9RJPB2nIV1_kA69G1W6Dkjnp6QD7Q0zu7b37O0wvooLUOhaXlGsF0Vc

 

I suppose this is prime property so not indicative of the market as a whole but generally speaking it seems the market is massively over-priced. That's from my view, looking at it from afar so please don't shred me too hard. It is simply my opinion.

The last line of the article is the only important one...

 

"The bach sits on 966 square meters"

 

Its the land that costs. Its a different mindset here.

 

In RSA, the house is what sells and thats where the value sits, here its the land.

 

That being said, the market is ridiculous and this is one of the most expensive places in the world for home ownership and the property market is a real problem that needs to be looked at.

[arabsandals]

At least it looks like the corporate budget was spent by the R&D team on the flavour and not by marketing on the label imagery.

That's a prime example of very on trend and expensive lo fi graphic design. Or, they simply haven't updated their packaging in a while...

[Wayne Potgieter]

That's a prime example of very on trend and expensive lo fi graphic design. Or, they simply haven't updated their packaging in a while...

its all brand new. They recently redid everything.

[patches]

As someone not even across yet, still wait for those pesky borders to open, this is concerning.

Seems most here have luckily entered the property market and that is good for you guys. Seems the property sector in NZ is pretty shocking at the moment.

 

https://www.sunlive.co.nz/news/267817-beachfront-hut-on-sleds-sold-26m.html?fbclid=IwAR2Z9RJPB2nIV1_kA69G1W6Dkjnp6QD7Q0zu7b37O0wvooLUOhaXlGsF0Vc

 

I suppose this is prime property so not indicative of the market as a whole but generally speaking it seems the market is massively over-priced. That's from my view, looking at it from afar so please don't shred me too hard. It is simply my opinion.

 

As you have noted, the property sector here is going crazy at the moment. Whilst it is disheartening, there are some "other sides to the story" that can bring hope. Things like:

 

Comparing apples and ambergris. I know you are not familiar with all the areas and regions in NZ, so it's understandable that the context of these things is elusive at times. As Wayne and Dave stated, the house you referenced is ridiculously priced due to its location. Whitianga is like rich Auckland boomer central. It's where wealthy Aucklanders (Jaffas) go to retire and complain about other Aucklanders who visit the Coromandel on holiday.

 

900+ squares of beachfront property there is where the real cost was (similar to buying in Clifton). Add an award winning architecturally designed home and you have a recipe ridiculous prices. Also couple that with the fact that NZ media has so little else to report on that they love fanning the flames on insane house pricing. They thrive on stuff like that.

 

Adios Auckland! Although over 1/4 of the country's population live in/around the big smoke, there are great places to live away from Jaffa-land. Many of these places have everything one needs, decent employment options, and more affordable housing.

 

The Aussies are in a similar boat. Sydney and Melbourne are great cities, but as uncle Ben said in Spiderman "with great cities come great housing expenses" [paraphrased]. So Aussies often look to places like Brisbane, central north coast (NSW), Adelaide and even Perth (aka Australia's Randfontein   ). Places where one may not get paid the same big bucks, but are more affordable overall.

 

New Zealand has similar places. Granted they're not as developed and not quite as good a deal (income-to-housing) as their Aussie counterparts, but that's part of the cost of living on the butt end of the world.

 

Last year a former colleague (Saffer) took a job in Cambridge (outside Hamilton) because he could afford to buy a house there. Not a bad move. Other places like Nelson, Whangarei and my personal favourite Christchurch are also viable options.

 

Resist the pull to Browns Bay (there are too many Saffers there anyway ) and look further afield (at least when you are ready to buy a house, which requires Residence, so you have time).

 

Sold the Dream, now what?! In addition to the love of rugby, cricket, char-grilled meat and beer, Saffers, Aussies and Kiwis have another thing in common. They sell the dream of home ownership as a measure of success. This dream has been sold over many generations, and whilst still achievable, it is by no means the same as it used to be, or a measure of success.

 

Owning a house is convenient as they are generally investments that address the basic human need for shelter. But if one looks at the approach that many people take in big cities in other countries (like Germany, Austria, Sweden, Singapore, Switzerland, etc), they look primarily at the shelter aspect and many put home ownership pretty far from their mind and focus their investment efforts in other areas.

 

Auckland, Sydney and Melbourne are fast becoming (or have become) like Singapore, Bangkok, Zurich and New York, whilst some people are adapting and either moving further away so that they can live the dream, or reside themselves to the fact that they can invest elsewhere and rent in Auckland, the general kiwi mindset around home ownership is still firmly set.

 

 

Anyway, hope my 2c doesn't add to your concerns about a future in NZ.

[patches]

The bad...

 

Yesterday the government announced public sector pay freezes (in various degrees) for the next 3 years.

 

That makes 4 years on the trot, as 2020 increases were also scrapped due to covid.

 

Whilst I recognise that one is fortunate to have steady employment, this is a slap in the face to many that have worked so hard (and on the front lines), are already paid less than their private sector counterparts.

 

Not a great way to convince people to go into essential services like law enforcement, healthcare, emergency services, or education.

 

It's like they saw the massive debt that covid recovery packages left and thought, let's screw over our own employees (who kept the country running) to try fix this.

 

[Gripe over]

[davetapson]

The bad...

 

Yesterday the government announced public sector pay freezes (in various degrees) for the next 3 years.

 

That makes 4 years on the trot, as 2020 increases were also scrapped due to covid.

 

Whilst I recognise that one is fortunate to have steady employment, this is a slap in the face to many that have worked so hard (and on the front lines), are already paid less than their private sector counterparts.

 

Not a great way to convince people to go into essential services like law enforcement, healthcare, emergency services, or education.

 

It's like they saw the massive debt that covid recovery packages left and thought, let's screw over our own employees (who kept the country running) to try fix this.

 

[Gripe over]

I hope like hell that any indication the politicians are going to raise their salaries over this time will be met with righteous indignation and suitable vengeance.

 

Edited May 6, 2021 by davetapson

[Wayne Potgieter]

The bad...

 

Yesterday the government announced public sector pay freezes (in various degrees) for the next 3 years.

 

That makes 4 years on the trot, as 2020 increases were also scrapped due to covid.

 

Whilst I recognise that one is fortunate to have steady employment, this is a slap in the face to many that have worked so hard (and on the front lines), are already paid less than their private sector counterparts.

 

Not a great way to convince people to go into essential services like law enforcement, healthcare, emergency services, or education.

 

It's like they saw the massive debt that covid recovery packages left and thought, let's screw over our own employees (who kept the country running) to try fix this.

 

[Gripe over]

Whilst this is terrible, the private sector is not much better - both suck!

 

12 months ago, I requested an increase. I had been with the company for 24 months, and made a career change to get there, so I was undervalued at the time of hire as I was high risk. I completely understood that and was grateful for the chance to change my career.

 

Fast forward and I am now more experienced, have demonstrated success and a few people have been hired (and subsequently left) and I was used as the internal benchmark for success. So I started a conversation to relook at my salary structure.

 

12 months has past and I am still having that conversation. I love EVERYTHING else about my job, so leaving is not something I really want to consider, but I am interested in increasing my earnings to (at the very least) keep up with the increasing cost of living.

 

At some point, the value balance will change and I will no doubt seek greener pastures, but for now, I am happy to be patient. But the point is that increases are also rare/non existent in the private sector. It seems the easiest way to increase salary is to move jobs, I suppose that easier in the private sector than the public sector...

[davetapson]

Ha - I got $250. Per annum.

 

No, not kidding.

[davetapson]

.

Fkn Tapatwak.

Edited May 6, 2021 by davetapson

[rad006]

At least inflation is controlled better in NZ than SA. Some industries are printing money, others just surviving but as you say, us hard workers deserve to be compensated I'm tired of sacrificing...

[WrightJnr]

I played golf this past Monday here in Dubai and two blokes in the four ball were New Zealander’s. Top chaps I tell you, if the majority of the nation are like these fellas you all are very lucky.

 

I work with a couple Kiwi’s too, also awesome personalities.

[patches]

Whilst this is terrible, the private sector is not much better - both suck!

 

12 months ago, I requested an increase. I had been with the company for 24 months, and made a career change to get there, so I was undervalued at the time of hire as I was high risk. I completely understood that and was grateful for the chance to change my career.

 

Fast forward and I am now more experienced, have demonstrated success and a few people have been hired (and subsequently left) and I was used as the internal benchmark for success. So I started a conversation to relook at my salary structure.

 

12 months has past and I am still having that conversation. I love EVERYTHING else about my job, so leaving is not something I really want to consider, but I am interested in increasing my earnings to (at the very least) keep up with the increasing cost of living.

 

At some point, the value balance will change and I will no doubt seek greener pastures, but for now, I am happy to be patient. But the point is that increases are also rare/non existent in the private sector. It seems the easiest way to increase salary is to move jobs, I suppose that easier in the private sector than the public sector...

 

Oh I completely agree, the workforce has been hit hard in both public and private sectors and whilst pay increases are unlikely in either. If they said "no increases this year, we'll review next" it would be more understandable. But to come out with a blanket 3yrs (on top of the 1yr prior) was a bit of a punch in the gut.

 

Employees with private sector equivalents (especially engineers and others in the construction industry) are in high demand and the private sector pays better. Soon enough those 5 extra days of public servant leave and the "ideals of being able to shape the industry" will be cast by the wayside in favour of competitive pay packages that enable one to keep up with the cost of living. I wouldn't be surprised if there's an exodus in the near future.

 

I feel for those in the emergency services or education who have little other option with limited private sector equivalencies.