New Zealand - The Good, The Bad and The Ugly.

[intern]

Sir Bob delivers the goods again this morning:

https://nopunchespulled.com/2020/05/07/now-is-the-winter-of-our-discontent/

[intern]

'In making that decision, they took an easy cop-out by simply aping other nations. But as I've explained before, the problems of Italy etc simply didn't apply to New Zealand."

 

That's an excerpt from Bob's latest missive. I was asked by a neighbour yesterday what was happening in South Africa, and my answer was pretty much this but for SA. I really feel for our SA compatriots, because while I resent the cheerful jackboot of our totalitarian state in New Zealand, I shudder to think what it must be like living under the government of the day back in the Old Country.

[intern]

By the way, if you don't know who Bob Jones is, he is a billionaire Wellington property magnate who was once active in politics. He also once punched a journalist in the face after said journo helicoptered in and disturbed Bob while he was fishing.

Bob punched the journo in the face haha - see here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyNt7C1TGPE

 

And that is why his blog is called No Punches Pulled.

 

He was fined $1000 for the assault. Bob was also reported as saying that for another $1000 he would have punched the helicopter pilot as well!

[intern]

Hi all, so what are your opinions on the new bill adopted whereby the government can take over the handling of INZ's duties.

Could be good, or bad. Waiting to see how it all pans out while eagerly awaiting permission to get over now!!

 

I don't think this is a good idea. Our immigration minister is a complete idiot named Iain Lees-Galloway (which isn't his real name, BTW, he changed it to the hyphenated version adding the Lees because he is a ponce overly concerned with his image and grooming) who granted residence to a convicted drug dealer named Karel Sroubek who was caught importing 5kg of MDMA from the Czech Republic. Sroubek happens to be friends with one of the PM's besties, the ludicrously-named Richie Hardcore who (here's the kicker) is an anti drugs campaigner.

 

Go figure.

[DJR]

.........

 

Man did I get it when she came home after being laughed at by her teacher for presenting a speech referencing Doogie Howser

Brilliant outcome 

[Ramrod]

Patches, How do you see the construction sector being impacted by all this?

[intern]

The ugly: the lockdown was illegal, and Jacinda proceeded with it anyway.

This is an outrage. We've destroyed our economy and the rule of law.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12330349

[intern]

"A government that breaks its own laws and enforces those illegal actions is no longer democratic. It is now operating in a despotic manner. The sad fact is that without the actions of whistleblowers bringing this into the open then the situation would have continued to occur. It is also likely that the entire lockdown under level four and possibly many aspects of level three are still illegal because of the lack of specificity of Health Act directions.

An urgent inquiry now needs to be undertaken. The Police, at least, clearly knew that enforcement of the isolation campaign was illegal. There must surely be a paper trail between Police, the Prime Minister and the Director-General of Health, Ashley Bloomfield, that shows that they knew the lockdown was illegal, but that they proceeded anyway.

When governments break their own laws they must be held to account, and this whole show has been run from both the Prime Minister’s office and the office of Ashley Bloomfield. They have, prima facie, acted illegally and wrecked the economy, businesses and peoples lives as a result. They must be held to account."

[patches]

Patches, How do you see the construction sector being impacted by all this?

 

From design consultants, to main contractors, to sub-contractors, all have been hit. 

 

Tier 1 main contractors weren't in the best position to begin with. We've seen a number close shop, like Ebert, Arrow, Mainzeal, etc. A number in trouble, like Fletchers, Hawkins (pre Downer lifeline), and the Aussie crowd (like CPB) noticed and circled the water like sharks, but a few big projects that turned sour for the Aussie big boys means they're less likely to cross the ditch again (especially for vertical construction projects. Roading is a lot simpler). That leaves little to no option for contractors who actually have the capability of taking on a big project.

 

Then there's the subbies. A main contractor is only as good as their subbies, and they are generally small outfits. These are the types of businesses that rely heavily on cash flow and constant work, so I fear that some may have already been taken out  by the lockdown. Those that are left and are good at what they do, will be able to name their price, but then that puts the squeeze on the main contractors (ie middlemen), who at times already run at dangerously low margins. It's a catch 22.

 

The design consultants have possibly fared the best out of the supply chain. Many have the ability to work from home. Whilst there have been pay-cuts and redundancies, design phases of projects are generally long enough to weather through. With the bigger firms (Beca, Aurecon, WSP-Opus) there have been a number of large public sector projects (CRL, multiple DHB programmes of work, etc) that have kept them busy throughout. As companies they'll be fine, although not all the individuals working for those companies will be.

 

The smaller design consultants tend to rely more on private sector projects, and as the private sector has taken a big hit, these in turn will feel the pain as clients push pause on projects.

 

Finally there's the clients. As mentioned above, many will have a reduced appetite for capital expenditure. Many will be tightening their belts. And that means less of the pie for everyone.

 

The big spenders in the private sector have pushed pause on massive programmes with massive budgets (just look at Auckland Airport company and the work they were undertaking).

 

Clients who were in the middle of projects, and using contracts like the NZS 3910 or 3916 have either the option to suspend the contract or grant and extension of time. Both cost money.

 

Anyway, long story short, it's not going to be a quick fix. Even with the 5000-odd "shovel-ready" public sector projects that a taskforce is earmarking, or the relaxed consenting laws which make it more enticing for the private sector to invest. Government procurement is slow and full of hurdles. The private sector is still wounded. And with a supply chain that is currently limping may be unable to deliver, it's going to a tough one!

Edited May 7, 2020 by patches

[intern]

Some interesting news on COVID 19 and the destruction of our economy, way of life and basic human rights:

 

The evidence of the extent of Covid-19 fearmongering and over-reaction continues apace. Some links below. Before that though, I’ve been analysing the UK’s Office of National Statistics weekly mortality data and can confirm that excess deaths not attributable to Covid-19 are starting to accumulate. Using the 5 year average as a baseline, and deducting deaths ‘attributed’* to Covid-19 from this reveals that 2,500 more people have died over the [latest reported] 4 weeks ending 24th April than would have been expected based on the 5 year average. This is evidence that the lockdown is, quite literally, killing people.

Now, back to what the evidence is pointing to re our government’s haste to violate our civil liberties:

☑ A new overview of existing PCR and antibody studies shows that the median value of Covid19 lethality (IFR) is about 0.2% and thus in the range of a strong influenza.

☑ German virologist Hendrik Streeck explains the final results of his pioneering antibody study. Professor Streeck found a Covid19 lethality of 0.36%, but explains that this is an upper limit and the lethality is probably in the range of 0.24 to 0.26% or even below. The average age of test-positive deceased was approximately 81 years.

☑ A new antibody study with Danish blood donors showed a very low Covid19 lethality (IFR) of 0.08% for persons under 70 years of age.

☑ A new antibody study from Iran, one of the earliest and most affected countries by Covid19, also showed a very low lethality of 0.08% to 0.12%.

☑ The emeritus microbiology professor Sucharit Bhakdi explains in a new German interview that politics and the media have been conducting an “intolerable fear-mongering” and an “irresponsible disinformation campaign”.

☑ A new antibody study from Japan comes to the conclusion that about 400 to 800 times more people there had contact with the new coronavirus than previously thought, but showed no or hardly any symptoms.

So …. lost your job, business, life savings, dignity, social connectedness? Yes, Ardern government’s response to what amount to a bad flu has done this to you, and to those you love.

*UK parliament rushed legislative changes so that Covid-19 could be claimed as the cause of death if only suspected, ie without testing. This can also now be done by a medical professional other than the deceased’s doctor, and no autopsy is required as is the case with other infectious diseases. In short, there’s so much less paperwork if the patient can be deemed to have died because of Covid-19

[davetapson]

This.

 

We had been looking at buying. Now we are going to sit back and watch for a little while.

 

The missus is desperate for a house of her own - I'm trying to hold her back to see what transpires.  If 'can't afford' can be called 'holding back'...

 

This might just allow us to get a toe on the property ladder.  

Edit: I'm not saying this in any happy way, take note.

 

Edited May 8, 2020 by davetapson

[davetapson]

So what we have is sub 3% mortgage rates, things are going to be lined up to save current property prices as far as is possible, and get new property owners on the wagon.

 

Then, come the time the interest rate rises by a percent or two - snot and trane because those marginal borrowers (puts hand up) get squeezed.  By squeezed I mean reamed.

Been there before, not so keen to be there again.

[Steven Knoetze (sk27)]

Some interesting news on COVID 19 and the destruction of our economy, way of life and basic human rights:

 

The evidence of the extent of Covid-19 fearmongering and over-reaction continues apace. Some links below. Before that though, I’ve been analysing the UK’s Office of National Statistics weekly mortality data and can confirm that excess deaths not attributable to Covid-19 are starting to accumulate. Using the 5 year average as a baseline, and deducting deaths ‘attributed’* to Covid-19 from this reveals that 2,500 more people have died over the [latest reported] 4 weeks ending 24th April than would have been expected based on the 5 year average. This is evidence that the lockdown is, quite literally, killing people.

Now, back to what the evidence is pointing to re our government’s haste to violate our civil liberties:

☑ A new overview of existing PCR and antibody studies shows that the median value of Covid19 lethality (IFR) is about 0.2% and thus in the range of a strong influenza.

☑ German virologist Hendrik Streeck explains the final results of his pioneering antibody study. Professor Streeck found a Covid19 lethality of 0.36%, but explains that this is an upper limit and the lethality is probably in the range of 0.24 to 0.26% or even below. The average age of test-positive deceased was approximately 81 years.

☑ A new antibody study with Danish blood donors showed a very low Covid19 lethality (IFR) of 0.08% for persons under 70 years of age.

☑ A new antibody study from Iran, one of the earliest and most affected countries by Covid19, also showed a very low lethality of 0.08% to 0.12%.

☑ The emeritus microbiology professor Sucharit Bhakdi explains in a new German interview that politics and the media have been conducting an “intolerable fear-mongering” and an “irresponsible disinformation campaign”.

☑ A new antibody study from Japan comes to the conclusion that about 400 to 800 times more people there had contact with the new coronavirus than previously thought, but showed no or hardly any symptoms.

So …. lost your job, business, life savings, dignity, social connectedness? Yes, Ardern government’s response to what amount to a bad flu has done this to you, and to those you love.

*UK parliament rushed legislative changes so that Covid-19 could be claimed as the cause of death if only suspected, ie without testing. This can also now be done by a medical professional other than the deceased’s doctor, and no autopsy is required as is the case with other infectious diseases. In short, there’s so much less paperwork if the patient can be deemed to have died because of Covid-19

 

Remember, many life insurance policies will pay out additional sums under dreaded disease or pandemic clauses so it would be in the interests of certain claimants to have deaths attributed to Covid, as opposed to the underlying conditions.

[l4y3rcake]

I agree with the following:

 

• This is a problem that is going to take time to repair and it will get worse before it gets better
• Most of the world is going to be effected

I would rather be here than almost anywhere else on earth to recover from the fallout. Kiwis are resilient and the economy reflects that. I am in no way trying to say that things are going to be peachy, but I think NZ will recover faster and better than most.

 

@ Layercake - not to tell you what to do, but of the three destinations you have mentioned, I reckon NZ is probably the best. Timing totally sucks though. Sorry dude. Hope you come right and If there is anything I can do from my end, just shout!

Yeah im sure NZ will recover and probably swiftly.

 

My problem is that I specialise in an industry that is very small in NZ. I'm in broadcast TV and specialise in VOD and OTT streaming services. In the US those industries are huge and with 15yrs experience specialising in OTT im pretty sought after in the trade. We were doing OTT broadcasting and streaming before Netflix existed as a streaming service. Aus has a pretty big industry as well.

 

I know I could probably work in just about any sector with automated processes but my passion for entertainment and experience in the field just makes me so much more valuable.

Edited May 8, 2020 by l4y3rcake

[Wayne Potgieter]

Yeah im sure NZ will recover and probably swiftly.

 

My problem is that I specialise in an industry that is very small in NZ. I'm in broadcast TV and specialise in VOD and OTT streaming services. In the US those industries are huge and with 15yrs experience specialising in OTT im pretty sought after in the trade. We were doing OTT broadcasting and streaming before Netflix existed as a streaming service. Aus has a pretty big industry as well.

 

I know I could probably work in just about any sector with automated processes but my passion for entertainment and experience in the field just makes me so much more valuable.

makes perfect sense.

[hayleyearth]

While I partially agree with your comments Wayne, the hammer blow to tourism makes me wonder. We do have a resilient farming sector (including forestry [forestry will suffer, reduced demand] and fishing), though, despite the best efforts of Labour and the Greens to hamstring and interfere with its productivity, and that is a major saving grace. But other sectors, like manufacturing, retail, services, etc, are going to feel the pinch big time. We are not going to have much immigration because job demand drives immigration demand. AirBNBs are going to come onto the market, more rentals and sales.

Tourism was our biggest deal. Think of all the camper vans, rental cars, motels and hotels, etc etc. All empty. All gone. Number 8 wire ain't gonna fix this, maybe a pair of Red Bands and a job mucking out the pigs, I dunno.

I think Straya is going to get out of this better and faster, personally. But who knows.

You are generalising a lot here.

Some manufacturing and supply companies in NZ are some of the only in the world that are better off now than before Covid-19 (go look at share prices).

 

I've seen very negative (basically only negative) comments from you about NZ lately, as if it bit you in the as.

 

Like Wayne said, I'd rather be here than anywhere else in the world right now.