Earth Bicycle Trading Posted December 5, 2016 Share Done!!! All on a Mtb. nathrix 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomoregravity Posted December 5, 2016 Share Explain more... Would 2 chances of 0.4 not give you twice 0.8, i.e twice as likely as 1 x 0.4% chance? If there's 2 people entered in the draw the its 2/2 = 100%. With 4 ppl, it would be 50%? or would it be 1 in 4 (25%) and then 1 in 3 (33%) so then added odds are 58%? This is bugging me more than it should. Probably should have paid more attention during stats lectures. Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk Counter-intuitive yes, but once your head gets around the implications of "random" it should make sense. A simple 50/50 example is a good start, like the toss in cricket. A captain might decide at the start of his career to always call heads, assuming that he should be right 50% of the time. In reality, he may end up being captain for twenty matches, and never win a toss. Each new throw of the coin is a new event - the coin doesn't have a memory (or a conscience :-) ). The law of averages isn't really a law, but rather an observation that, over time and millions of throws of the coin, heads and tails occur in more or less equal frequencies. In this competition, if it was only you and me that completed all four challenges, and there were two entries up for grabs, and we assumed that you can only win once, we would each have a 50% chance in the first draw. The person losing in the first draw would then have a 100% chance of winning the SECOND draw, which would also be the last. So, in an event with multiple draws, your best odds is always what it will be in the FINAL draw. If we added dirtypot to the mix, we would each have a 1 in 3 chance for the first entry, while you and dirtypot would each have a 50% odds for the second entry, as I would have won the first! I also seem to care more about this than I should... cat-i, dirtypot and MTBc 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dirtypot Posted December 5, 2016 Share Yay for one in three chance! MTBc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rvdm1 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Counter-intuitive yes, but once your head gets around the implications of "random" it should make sense. A simple 50/50 example is a good start, like the toss in cricket. A captain might decide at the start of his career to always call heads, assuming that he should be right 50% of the time. In reality, he may end up being captain for twenty matches, and never win a toss. Each new throw of the coin is a new event - the coin doesn't have a memory (or a conscience :-) ). The law of averages isn't really a law, but rather an observation that, over time and millions of throws of the coin, heads and tails occur in more or less equal frequencies. In this competition, if it was only you and me that completed all four challenges, and there were two entries up for grabs, and we assumed that you can only win once, we would each have a 50% chance in the first draw. The person losing in the first draw would then have a 100% chance of winning the SECOND draw, which would also be the last. So, in an event with multiple draws, your best odds is always what it will be in the FINAL draw. If we added dirtypot to the mix, we would each have a 1 in 3 chance for the first entry, while you and dirtypot would each have a 50% odds for the second entry, as I would have won the first! I also seem to care more about this than I should...We decided to test the law of averages the other day in the office. We flipped a coin and counted how many times it landed on heads and tails. After 10 throws it was exactly 5/5 then after 20 it was 10/10, after 30 it was 16/14. Finally after 40 it was exactly 20/20 again, we then realized we were wasting time and got back to work. The end. nomoregravity, nathrix and dirtypot 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomoregravity Posted December 6, 2016 Share We decided to test the law of averages the other day in the office. We flipped a coin and counted how many times it landed on heads and tails. After 10 throws it was exactly 5/5 then after 20 it was 10/10, after 30 it was 16/14. Finally after 40 it was exactly 20/20 again, we then realized we were wasting time and got back to work. The end. The 30th flip proved to be a great illustration of why it's an observation and not a law :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fatboy85 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Anybody know then the draw takes place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Serious Panda Posted December 6, 2016 Share I also seem to care more about this than I should... Beware the concept of randomness it can randomly drive a random man to go randomly mad, randomly. MTBc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTBc Posted December 6, 2016 Share Yay for one in three chance! I think it becomes 50% after the first draw even. dirtypot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTBc Posted December 6, 2016 Share Damnit!! I just read this in the Ts & Cs You are allowed to enter for both prizes of the competition and you may enter more than once given you follow the correct process to do so. So if I had 2 strava account and completed each of the challenges twice during each fortnight, I could have had additional entries, if I'm interpreting that correctly..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTBc Posted December 6, 2016 Share Anybody know then the draw takes place? Not in the conditions, have emailed the contact address to find out, will post a reply here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomoregravity Posted December 7, 2016 Share Soooooo.. anyone been contacted telephonically yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted December 7, 2016 Share Hi all,Winners will be announced here and on http://www.usnepicchallenge.co.za/ at 12h00 on Monday, 12 December 2016. Well done to all who've made it through the challenges and good luck nomoregravity, dirtypot and mudda 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fatboy85 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Not in the conditions, have emailed the contact address to find out, will post a reply here.Thanks MTBc. Im not holding my breath! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomoregravity Posted December 7, 2016 Share Hi all, Winners will be announced here and on http://www.usnepicchallenge.co.za/ at 12h00 on Monday, 12 December 2016. Well done to all who've made it through the challenges and good luck Thanks for a great competition where the challenges pushed most of us out of our comfort zones. How many in the draw? Earth Bicycle Trading 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted December 7, 2016 Share Thanks for a great competition where the challenges pushed most of us out of our comfort zones. How many in the draw?There are 264 in the final draw out of a total of 1032 initial entrants. Here's a look at the "funnel" through to the final challenge:Challenge 1: 413Challenge 2: 346Challenge 3: 279Challenge 4: 264 Rudi Pollard, MTBc, dirtypot and 3 others 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coops Posted December 7, 2016 Share Not in the conditions, have emailed the contact address to find out, will post a reply here.Hi all Draw takes place on Monday the 12th at Noon Regards MTBc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts