[Event] 99er Cycle Tour

[NicholasH]

46 minutes ago, Zebra said:

this post, maybe?: 

 

nope, that is the Cradle and a back was LOST. I'm for a post from someone who FOUND a FRONT wheel.

Thanks tho  🙂

 

 

[EJC]

7 minutes ago, MongooseMan said:

Conspiracy theory: This is just PPA ensuring we all enter Tour de PPA 🤣

 

 

I would have done the Tour de PPA if I got a group bump up to A from the 99er but did not happen unfortunately. I don't think B would give me a better seeding in Tour de PPA than % did in 99er. 

[andydude]

35 minutes ago, matthew de haast said:

 

At this point, you might as well not even have this as a seeding race...

To put it in perspective.
Finishing in the bunch for the $ group. Gets you a seeding of ~7.5

Finishing in the bunch of the next group, %. Gets you a seeding of 14.5

 

That kind of sounds correct?

7.5 gives you A seeding which is the fastest group, in this instance $

14.5 gives you B seeding which is the second fast group, in this instance %

I think the problem is always, how to get in higher group if the group you are in rides their pace as per their seeding.

[James2233]

This is pretty frustrating with regards to the seeding process. If you finished with the front of the A bunch at Winelands and the front of the % bunch at 99er, your seeding did not improve whatsoever. So I guess my question is how on earth does one improve their seeding? 

[andydude]

2 minutes ago, James2233 said:

This is pretty frustrating with regards to the seeding process. If you finished with the front of the A bunch at Winelands and the front of the % bunch at 99er, your seeding did not improve whatsoever. So I guess my question is how on earth does one improve their seeding? 

I know it seems frustrating. But think about it. % group is equal to B letter seeding, and that is exactly the seeding you got? You can't expect to get an A seeding riding in group B and finishing almost 10 minutes down on a flat course?

[Skubarra]

12 minutes ago, andydude said:

I know it seems frustrating. But think about it. % group is equal to B letter seeding, and that is exactly the seeding you got? You can't expect to get an A seeding riding in group B and finishing almost 10 minutes down on a flat course?

But then how do you get from B to A?

% is expected to be slower than elites, if its not then either the elites were sleeping on the day or the seeding system is wrong

Answer is probably that you need a group of strong guys in % (or A at Winelands) to ride for time, ie work together to get the pace as high as possible and finish as close as possible to elites. Problem is there are many in %/A with no ambition to ride elites or they just want to win the group (which is their right, everyone have their own goals) which make it real hard to get a paceline going as many will just hang on or spoil the pace when given the opportunity. 

[andydude]

1 minute ago, Skubarra said:

But then how do you get from B to A?

% is expected to be slower than elites, if its not then either the elites were sleeping on the day or the seeding system is wrong

Answer is probably that you need a group of strong guys in % (or A at Winelands) to ride for time, ie work together to get the pace as high as possible and finish as close as possible to elites. Problem is there are many in %/A with no ambition to ride elites or they just want to win the group (which is their right, everyone have their own goals) which make it real hard to get a paceline going as many will just hang on or spoil the pace when given the opportunity. 

The seeding post 99er actually worked out as it should!

But yes, that is the conundrum, in how to move up. The only way is as you say, to move back and hammer it in a team, but that will probably only take you to B at best. Another way is that once you are in B or C then you can try to request a reseeding to A/elite for a PPA race and hope you get it! And then hope you don't drop!

[MongooseMan]

2 minutes ago, Skubarra said:

But then how do you get from B to A?

% is expected to be slower than elites, if its not then either the elites were sleeping on the day or the seeding system is wrong

Answer is probably that you need a group of strong guys in % (or A at Winelands) to ride for time, ie work together to get the pace as high as possible and finish as close as possible to elites. Problem is there are many in %/A with no ambition to ride elites or they just want to win the group (which is their right, everyone have their own goals) which make it real hard to get a paceline going as many will just hang on or spoil the pace when given the opportunity. 

One could argue we did have that in % at 99er. There were 7 $ riders who dropped back, and then drove the pace.

even with that, the algorithm then penalises you by correcting for your fast pace. So you do have to “get lucky” to improve, like we did at Tour de PPA last year.

[matthew de haast]

33 minutes ago, andydude said:

I know it seems frustrating. But think about it. % group is equal to B letter seeding, and that is exactly the seeding you got? You can't expect to get an A seeding riding in group B and finishing almost 10 minutes down on a flat course?

The two things that I think make it difficult

1. There are far less races these days, so there is less opportunity to improve. 
2. There feels like inconsistency, I’ve done other races that feel easier and have had much better beta and end up getting a good seeding. 🤷

Edited February 10 by matthew de haast

[ChrisF]

1 hour ago, MongooseMan said:

Conspiracy theory: This is just PPA ensuring we all enter Tour de PPA 🤣

 

 

 

Maybe I should go test this theory .... 😋

[MongooseMan]

1 minute ago, matthew de haast said:

The two things that I think make it difficult

1. There are far less races these days, so there is less opportunity to improve. 
2. There feels like inconsistency, I’ve don’t other races that feel easier and have had much better beta and end up getting a good seeding. 🤷

Beta doesn’t equal difficulty, despite what the website says.

 

so beta is the result of a linear regression that says “on average someone with an ‘x’ seeding before this race should have got an ‘x’ seeding in this race”

[ChrisF]

1 hour ago, matthew de haast said:

 

At this point, you might as well not even have this as a seeding race...

To put it in perspective.
Finishing in the bunch for the $ group. Gets you a seeding of ~7.5

Finishing in the bunch of the next group, %. Gets you a seeding of 14.5

 

 

Blikse.... 

 

Jeepers, wonder if anybody managed to improve their seeding ....

 

All of 20 worse than my Winelands seeding.

 

O.well, it was a good day in the saddle and excellent CTCT training.

[andydude]

3 minutes ago, MongooseMan said:

Beta doesn’t equal difficulty, despite what the website says.

 

so beta is the result of a linear regression that says “on average someone with an ‘x’ seeding before this race should have got an ‘x’ seeding in this race”

But doesn't that linear regression indirectly measure the difficulty?

For example, they would compare two races. An easier race has B finishing 10 min behind A. And in a more difficult race B finishes 20 min behind A, but they are relatively the same strength riders. The beta corrects for the gap, which is indirectly caused by the difficulty of the race.

[MongooseMan]

3 minutes ago, andydude said:

But doesn't that linear regression indirectly measure the difficulty?

For example, they would compare two races. An easier race has B finishing 10 min behind A. And in a more difficult race B finishes 20 min behind A, but they are relatively the same strength riders. The beta corrects for the gap, which is indirectly caused by the difficulty of the race.

It might

And it might not

 

maybe there was a crash, maybe the wind changed, maybe it got hotter/cooler, maybe a monster dropped back 15 groups and towed 100 people to sub3s 

there are any number of factors that drive the times, and “difficulty” is just one of them.

i think they do themselves a disservice by just calling it difficulty, because it adds this element (as mentioned above) of perceived subjectivity, when there actually isn’t any there.

Edited February 10 by MongooseMan

[abrown]

1 hour ago, Zebra said:

this post, maybe?: 

 

 

3 hours ago, NicholasH said:

Hello all

I need some assistance please : someone left a front wheel in the parking lot after the race. We heard via the vine that some lady found said wheel and notified some online forum (the word Hub was mentioned). How would I locate this? I did check the lost and found forum but nothing...

thanks in advance!

Thanks for putting it out there . . . it was my front wheel (Shimano road) that I left leaning up against the side of the car in the parking lot before driving off. Only when I got home did I realise my mistake. 

If anyone knows the person who found the errant wheel, I would really appreciate if you could put me in touch. 

[matthew de haast]

My understanding is the beta and finish time adjustment is there way of getting a normal distribution out of the finishers. 
 

If the above is true, the weaker the field could sometimes result in a higher beta because less adjustment of the curve is required. Which essentially means the race was easier for the net effect of what your seeding is.

An ELO style system that considers the field etc could be a nice addition