Post Lockdown Strategy

[geomark]

It looks like we are developing a rule that says customers behaviour post lockdown will not be the same but will it be a permanent change or just while the virus is around?

I don't see it as binary, you will have both short term changes during the restriction of movement phase and long term due to changes in the way people do business, social norms etc which will last much longer

[SteveFW]

Such a strategy needs to be underpinned by a cost baseline, cash and otherwise. Due to uncertaintee this will be a very fluid number but is likely to move within a range. First step is to determine the range.

Correct BATNA is to understand the absolute fall back, then you need to develop the baseline for the two parties and see whether there is an overlap where an agreement could be reached.  This could be made up in a variety of ways depending on short term capacity, long term interest, cashflows and capital availability etc.

[ACM]

    

It looks like we are developing a rule that says customers behaviour post lockdown will not be the same but will it be a permanent change or just while the virus is around?

I don't believe it will be across board in terms of permanent.  One possibly needs to look into the detail of different sectors, different LSMs, etc. Some will change permanently, some will start to change, but go back to old habbits... my 2 cents.

 

Example: I think WFH will become something that Society demands (in certain sectors) and employers will have to play by the new rules if they want to keep their skills (example IT staff like developers).  I'm less convinced about retails shops in the food/beverages, etc. changing massively due to the current rules/dictations.

[vanniri]

I would to get your thoughts on the socio or customers dynamics, during lockdown their behaviour is dictated but what happens after lockdown? I can't see it as business as usual and thoughts?

 

Whatever happens goods and services will follow customer needs, a mall provides a trading space for these goods and services. This will not change, i.e. the basic reason for the existence of malls will remain. 

[River Rat]

Okay we've made good progress with two subjects that haven't been fully explored namely customers future behaviour and how long the virus will have an impact. I am going to suggest that we do a survey on the Bikehub to test customer behaviour during the day tomorrow and hopefully this will guide our conversation tomorrow. Like it or not the commentary on this thread will continue and I will use this where applicable to create an agenda for tomorrow's session again at 18h00.

 

But to summarise the overarching conclusion is that the rule of the game is everything is going to be renegotiated.

[meathead]

I would to get your thoughts on the socio or customers dynamics, during lockdown their behaviour is dictated but what happens after lockdown? I can't see it as business as usual and thoughts?

 

Whatever happens goods and services will follow customer needs, a mall provides a trading space for these goods and services. This will not change, i.e. the basic reason for the existence of malls will remain. 

The trend because of less social interaction can be less of the big malls and smaller shopping centres or clusters of shopping centres

[ACM]

Whatever happens goods and services will follow customer needs, a mall provides a trading space for these goods and services. This will not change, i.e. the basic reason for the existence of malls will remain. 

Agree. An "smaller" impact might be.... let's assume people abide by the current rules of trying to go outside as little as possible and they shop at the corner store/Spar, instead of going to the Mall where the Pick&Pay is. 

 

Assume after the lock down people keep following this trend; then it might impact the bigger shopping malls. Not so?

[Slowbee]

    

It looks like we are developing a rule that says customers behaviour post lockdown will not be the same but will it be a permanent change or just while the virus is around?

Why will customer behaviour change ?

 

If the mall has the right mix, people will still need those products.

 

As in the ques at our mall are horrendous.

[River Rat]

I don't believe it will be across board in terms of permanent.  One possibly needs to look into the detail of different sectors, different LSMs, etc. Some will change permanently, some will start to change, but go back to old habbits... my 2 cents.

 

Example: I think WFH will become something that Society demands (in certain sectors) and employers will have to play by the new rules if they want to keep their skills (example IT staff like developers).  I'm less convinced about retails shops in the food/beverages, etc. changing massively due to the current rules/dictations.

You might have spotted the slight of hand here that I made the LSM applicable to the shopping centre the same as the Bikehub! But let's test this with a survey, I think the information will be invaluable.

[Slowbee]

Agree. An "smaller" impact might be.... let's assume people abide by the current rules of trying to go outside as little as possible and they shop at the corner store/Spar, instead of going to the Mall where the Pick&Pay is. 

 

Assume after the lock down people keep following this trend; then it might impact the bigger shopping malls. Not so?

As this is scenario, people will be feeling cabin fever, and will want to go and see and look and feel. As the country moves towards winter, they will want to do things inside.

[River Rat]

Why will customer behaviour change ?

If the mall has the right mix, people will still need those products.

As in the ques at our mall are horrendous.

That certainly applies to the supermarket but what about the restaurants or hairdresser. Will the office usage be the same or will WFH have an impact. Will the supermarket shift it's business model to making home deliveries which means less shelf space and more warehousing. We don't know and that's why I am suggesting a survey to test the market.

[meathead]

Why will customer behaviour change ?

 

If the mall has the right mix, people will still need those products.

 

As in the ques at our mall are horrendous.

That's a good question. I would imagine that it will be driven by economic and social trends. It will take a few years while everything recovers. No scientific basis. My opinion

[River Rat]

Agree. An "smaller" impact might be.... let's assume people abide by the current rules of trying to go outside as little as possible and they shop at the corner store/Spar, instead of going to the Mall where the Pick&Pay is. 

 

Assume after the lock down people keep following this trend; then it might impact the bigger shopping malls. Not so?

Hold that thought for when we develop the scenarios.

[geomark]

That certainly applies to the supermarket but what about the restaurants or hairdresser. Will the office usage be the same or will WFH have an impact. Will the supermarket shift it's business model to making home deliveries which means less shelf space and more warehousing. We don't know and that's why I am suggesting a survey to test the market.

The average Hubber would go a long way to avoid a mall in normal times Suggest they need to ask their SO to answer the poll!

[Flippa]

That certainly applies to the supermarket but what about the restaurants or hairdresser. Will the office usage be the same or will WFH have an impact. Will the supermarket shift it's business model to making home deliveries which means less shelf space and more warehousing. We don't know and that's why I am suggesting a survey to test the market.

 

I think that is also dependent on how the government acts i.e. whether or not the lockdown is lifted in its entirety or certain restrictions are left in place.

 

What is certain in the short term, is that service based small business such as hairdressers, financial planners, etc. will gravitate to WFH as there are less expenses and a portion of turnover can be kept aside as a safety net. Its not difficult to see the attraction of fewer fixed overheads and working wherever the client is.

 

How long this will last is unknown, people's memories are notoriously short.....

[Slowbee]

How willing are people willing to switch ? I mean the local barber is going to be the first place to visit and as soon as possible