I would debate your assertions also having done many years as well on many formats and also seen the stats on the road about the majority is the guy who did not see you from behind something like a Garmin Varia makes a hell of a difference. Because it changes pattern and intensiies. Same with Garmin headlights.
Clearly you cant avoid a distracted driver or a person who conciously decides to ignore you - lights arent going to help much.
BUT my experience has shown lights during the day makea difference - especialy strobing lights. Just this last weekend I had a car pull out to overtake in to the group of oncoming cyclists I was in which then aborted and i can only assume it was because of a strobing headlights. Decided against it. Without the headlights the chances are he would have gone ahead as maybe he had not seen us.
Its like the guy says - you can't stop and ask him whether he would have done something that would have hurt or killed you but you also may have saved that from happening and for me that is enough.
However having spent lots of time on motorbikes you learn front lights make a difference. Hi Viz vests etc all add to it. As do different coloured lights outside of what you normally expect oncoming or receding.
Defensive rdiing also teaches you that people pay attention to strobing lights or lights that move side to side - which is why advanced motorcycling tells you to waggle the steering slightly and move your lights when approaching an intersection if there is a car crosisng from a T junction as this will get the atention of someone who may be tired or distracted or not paying attention.
If I flash a light at you or move it side to side you will likely pay it attention and notice there is a bike behind it or a group of cyclists and that may make you think twice about running the light, stopping or overtaking. And that may be all it takes to avoid the next possible outcome of an accident.
TBH I dont know how many times my little front strobing light has saved me - maybe none - maybe many times. Thats okay. One is all I need.
Given that in the eternal war between cars and bikes - cars will always win in an accident, you need to do whatever you can to improve the odds in your favour.
Ride with headlights and tail lights. I can assure you that the one time the strobing head light gets notice may be the one time that its needed and it saves your life as there is never a scorecard where you know about the times it saved you and the near misses your precautionary actions averted.
Thats why 19 year olds go to war - its because they believe its the other guy who gets killed. Rather than rely on opinions or pop culture which are really not backed by fact, why not stack the odds in your favour just a ittle bit and add a bike headlight that strobes and also has a changing pattern.
As I said one save from a life altering or fatal accident is all I need to justify my use.