Win 1 of 2 Absa Cape Epic team entries with USN

[Earth Bicycle Trading]

Done!!! All on a Mtb.

 

[nomoregravity]

Explain more... Would 2 chances of 0.4 not give you twice 0.8, i.e twice as likely as 1 x 0.4% chance?

 

If there's 2 people entered in the draw the its 2/2 = 100%. With 4 ppl, it would be 50%? or would it be 1 in 4 (25%) and then 1 in 3 (33%) so then added odds are 58%?

 

This is bugging me more than it should. Probably should have paid more attention during stats lectures.

 

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

 

Counter-intuitive yes, but once your head gets around the implications of "random" it should make sense.

 

A simple 50/50 example is a good start, like the toss in cricket. A captain might decide at the start of his career to always call heads, assuming that he should be right 50% of the time. In reality, he may end up being captain for twenty matches, and never win a toss. Each new throw of the coin is a new event - the coin doesn't have a memory (or a conscience :-) ). The law of averages isn't really a law, but rather an observation that, over time and millions of throws of the coin, heads and tails occur in more or less equal frequencies. 

 

In this competition, if it was only you and me that completed all four challenges, and there were two entries up for grabs, and we assumed that you can only win once, we would each have a 50% chance in the first draw. The person losing in the first draw would then have a 100% chance of winning the SECOND draw, which would also be the last. So, in an event with multiple draws, your best odds is always what it will be in the FINAL draw. 

 

If we added dirtypot to the mix, we would each have a 1 in 3 chance for the first entry, while you and dirtypot would each have a 50% odds for the second entry, as I would have won the first!

 

I also seem to care more about this than I should...

[dirtypot]

Yay for one in three chance!  

[rvdm1]

Counter-intuitive yes, but once your head gets around the implications of "random" it should make sense.

 

A simple 50/50 example is a good start, like the toss in cricket. A captain might decide at the start of his career to always call heads, assuming that he should be right 50% of the time. In reality, he may end up being captain for twenty matches, and never win a toss. Each new throw of the coin is a new event - the coin doesn't have a memory (or a conscience :-) ). The law of averages isn't really a law, but rather an observation that, over time and millions of throws of the coin, heads and tails occur in more or less equal frequencies.

 

In this competition, if it was only you and me that completed all four challenges, and there were two entries up for grabs, and we assumed that you can only win once, we would each have a 50% chance in the first draw. The person losing in the first draw would then have a 100% chance of winning the SECOND draw, which would also be the last. So, in an event with multiple draws, your best odds is always what it will be in the FINAL draw.

 

If we added dirtypot to the mix, we would each have a 1 in 3 chance for the first entry, while you and dirtypot would each have a 50% odds for the second entry, as I would have won the first!

 

I also seem to care more about this than I should...

We decided to test the law of averages the other day in the office. We flipped a coin and counted how many times it landed on heads and tails. After 10 throws it was exactly 5/5 then after 20 it was 10/10, after 30 it was 16/14. Finally after 40 it was exactly 20/20 again, we then realized we were wasting time and got back to work. The end.

[nomoregravity]

We decided to test the law of averages the other day in the office. We flipped a coin and counted how many times it landed on heads and tails. After 10 throws it was exactly 5/5 then after 20 it was 10/10, after 30 it was 16/14. Finally after 40 it was exactly 20/20 again, we then realized we were wasting time and got back to work. The end.

 

The 30th flip proved to be a great illustration of why it's an observation and not a law :-)

[Fatboy85]

Anybody know then the draw takes place? 

[Serious Panda]

 

I also seem to care more about this than I should...

 

Beware the concept of randomness it can randomly drive a random man to go randomly mad, randomly.

[MTBc]

Yay for one in three chance!  

I think it becomes 50% after the first draw even.

[MTBc]

Damnit!! I just read this in the Ts & Cs

 

You are allowed to enter for both prizes of the competition and you may enter more than once given you follow the correct process to do so.

 

So if I had 2 strava account and completed each of the challenges twice during each fortnight, I could have had additional entries, if I'm interpreting that correctly.....

[MTBc]

Anybody know then the draw takes place? 

 

Not in the conditions, have emailed the contact address to find out, will post a reply here.

[nomoregravity]

 

Soooooo.. anyone been contacted telephonically yet? 

 

[Matt]

Hi all,

Winners will be announced here and on http://www.usnepicchallenge.co.za/ at 12h00 on Monday, 12 December 2016.

Well done to all who've made it through the challenges and good luck 

[Fatboy85]

Not in the conditions, have emailed the contact address to find out, will post a reply here.

Thanks MTBc. Im not holding my breath! 

[nomoregravity]

Hi all,

 

Winners will be announced here and on http://www.usnepicchallenge.co.za/ at 12h00 on Monday, 12 December 2016.

 

Well done to all who've made it through the challenges and good luck 

 

Thanks for a great competition where the challenges pushed most of us out of our comfort zones.

 

How many in the draw?

[Matt]

Thanks for a great competition where the challenges pushed most of us out of our comfort zones.

 

How many in the draw?

There are 264 in the final draw out of a total of 1032 initial entrants.

 

Here's a look at the "funnel" through to the final challenge:

• Challenge 1: 413
• Challenge 2: 346
• Challenge 3: 279
• Challenge 4: 264

[coops]

Not in the conditions, have emailed the contact address to find out, will post a reply here.

Hi all 

 

Draw takes place on Monday the 12th at Noon 

 

Regards