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Kona 2017 Predictions


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Posted

There is a couple of 02h40 runners and sub 8 hour finishers in the group.  Gone are the days of winning this race by big margins.  A single drafting penalty can cost you the race.  Heck a flat tyre that gets replaced immediately can cost you the race.  I can push you from the front of the field back to 30th.  I think the think what also sets Kona apart is the wind and heat.

 

 

Saw the highlights. what do you have to do to get a drafting penalty, race on a tandem?

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Posted

Saw the highlights. what do you have to do to get a drafting penalty, race on a tandem?

 

There is very specific rules.  You can enter the drafting zone for a short period but then need to complete the pass.

 

It gets interesting when say there are 5 athletes in front of you.  You are not allowed to pass the first one and then "create space" - you have to pass all 5 athletes in front of you.

 

Obviously they are more lenient when it comes to the masses as there is only so much road.

Posted

Saw the highlights. what do you have to do to get a drafting penalty, race on a tandem?

 

Interesting read regarding drafting on Lionel Sanders blog:

 

... and the fact that the current rules on the bike do not accomplish a “non-drafting” bike ride. In reality, as the rules currently stand i.e. 10m spacing between bikes, we are really participating in a semi-draft legal bike ride. If you don’t believe me, here is some CFD data to support my claims:

 

https://www.swissside.com/blogs/news/the-deal-with-drafting

Posted

There is very specific rules.  You can enter the drafting zone for a short period but then need to complete the pass.

 

It gets interesting when say there are 5 athletes in front of you.  You are not allowed to pass the first one and then "create space" - you have to pass all 5 athletes in front of you.

 

Obviously they are more lenient when it comes to the masses as there is only so much road.

well you don't even have to watch to know they're drafting..the report talks about 'groups' on the ride, just short of calling them bunches!

 

http://www.triathlete.com/2017/10/ironman/analysis-mens-race-risky-business_307429

Posted

well you don't even have to watch to know they're drafting..the report talks about 'groups' on the ride, just short of calling them bunches!

 

http://www.triathlete.com/2017/10/ironman/analysis-mens-race-risky-business_307429

Perhaps you should have watched, because there were definitely no bunch riding with the pro's.

 

The link when mentioning groups is embellishing and actually talking about strategy... being the group of guys who went hard and tried to hang on verses the group of guys who paced themselves within limits and tried to regain the initiative from those who had gone hard and began to fade.

 

Perhaps you should re-read again and not try to read into something that was not there... especially as you admit that you did not watch, so are interpreting incorrectly what is written

 

as stated "a winding snake of 30 pro men formed by mile 20".... being a long line of riders each outside of the draft zone of one another snaking along the road.... and not bunch riding.

 

And yes I did watch beyond the turn around point at 60kms, so can say with fact that there was no drafting or bunch riding!

Posted

Perhaps you should have watched, because there were definitely no bunch riding with the pro's.

 

The link when mentioning groups is embellishing and actually talking about strategy... being the group of guys who went hard and tried to hang on verses the group of guys who paced themselves within limits and tried to regain the initiative from those who had gone hard and began to fade.

 

Perhaps you should re-read again and not try to read into something that was not there... especially as you admit that you did not watch, so are interpreting incorrectly what is written

 

as stated "a winding snake of 30 pro men formed by mile 20".... being a long line of riders each outside of the draft zone of one another snaking along the road.... and not bunch riding.

 

And yes I did watch beyond the turn around point at 60kms, so can say with fact that there was no drafting or bunch riding!

 

The pro's have it easy (to maintain a 10m gap)

 

David's link above shows 10m drafting gap gives a 13% drag reduction.... could have fooled me

 

I can still remember when 100% of triathlons short, medium, long and fat were all draft free.

The way it should be

 

As fields get bigger and bigger it gets harder for the Joe Soaps to maintain a 10m gap

 

Seen and cat called some large bunches during my few IM ventures....

 

But hell moi the big drafting critic even got penalized by a myopic Swiss IM ref once...

Posted

Saw this on FB this morning, interesting:

 

Some interesting analysis of Kona results from 2012 of first time male podium finishers and their result the following year-

 

2012- Freddie Van Lierde 3rd, 2013- 1st
2013- Sebastian Kienle 3rd, 2014- 1st
2014- Jan Frodeno 3rd, 2015- 1st
2016- Patrick Lange 3rd, 2017- 1st
2017- David McNamee 3rd, 2018 ??

Posted

Saw this on FB this morning, interesting:

 

Some interesting analysis of Kona results from 2012 of first time male podium finishers and their result the following year-

 

2012- Freddie Van Lierde 3rd, 2013- 1st

2013- Sebastian Kienle 3rd, 2014- 1st

2014- Jan Frodeno 3rd, 2015- 1st

2016- Patrick Lange 3rd, 2017- 1st

2017- David McNamee 3rd, 2018 ??

All I know is that it is getting crowded at the top of the leader board.  If everyone is fit then there is at least 10 guys who can win next year.......

Posted

All I know is that it is getting crowded at the top of the leader board.  If everyone is fit then there is at least 10 guys who can win next year.......

 

I think next year we can add Gomez to the mix as well and I wouldn't bet against him winning it at his first attempt.

Posted

I think next year we can add Gomez to the mix as well and I wouldn't bet against him winning it at his first attempt.

Also add Trautman and Alistair Brownlee.  I hear what you say about Gomez but history suggests it is very difficult to win this race first time up.  Not sure any male have achieved this?

Posted

Also add Trautman and Alistair Brownlee.  I hear what you say about Gomez but history suggests it is very difficult to win this race first time up.  Not sure any male have achieved this?

 

 

Don't think so, only Chrissie Wellington as far as I know.

Posted

I don't know if Gomez will have the firepower to hang with the guys at the front of the bike, I can't remember exactly but didn't he fade a bit towards the end at 70.3 worlds? Regardless, Ironman is all really all about running and you don't get much better than Gomez, its a thing of beauty to watch

Posted

I don't know if Gomez will have the firepower to hang with the guys at the front of the bike, I can't remember exactly but didn't he fade a bit towards the end at 70.3 worlds? Regardless, Ironman is all really all about running and you don't get much better than Gomez, its a thing of beauty to watch

Well maybe he doesn't need get off the bike in front.  Patrick Lange was behind by almost 10 minutes if I recall correctly?  

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