[Event] 99er Cycle Tour

[andydude]

13 minutes ago, MongooseMan said:

It might

And it might not

 

maybe there was a crash, maybe the wind changed, maybe it got hotter/cooler, maybe a monster dropped back 15 groups and towed 100 people to sub3s 

there are any number of factors that drive the times, and “difficulty” is just one of them.

i think they do themselves a disservice by just calling it difficulty, because it adds this element (as mentioned above) of perceived subjectivity, when there actually isn’t any there.

Yeah nothing will be perfect. But I don't think it is that bad currently.

And by them looking at hundreds of riders it hopefully corrects for some of the anomolies.

[andydude]

34 minutes ago, MongooseMan said:

One could argue we did have that in % at 99er. There were 7 $ riders who dropped back, and then drove the pace.

even with that, the algorithm then penalises you by correcting for your fast pace. So you do have to “get lucky” to improve, like we did at Tour de PPA last year.

Seeing this now. Even with 7 strong riders dropping back % the group was still almost 10 minutes behind $. What is interesting is that A basically rode the same time as %.

That dropping back will only work up to B or C. You will never ride into A if not starting in A. Elites are just too big and fast. And yes, that is the conundrum if you want A 😀

[DieselnDust]

The only way to move up on merit is to participate in events that naturally have a higher beta. 
PPA 1tonner

Maluti double 90

those sort of races. Or you wait for a crappy weather conditions  and hope for the best. 
great weather like we had for 99er will always result in a lower beta because the average speed is higher over a shorter course with Less elevation than ctct

[cadenceblur]

Looks like the Tour De PPA is a waste then

[EJC]

2 hours ago, andydude said:

That kind of sounds correct?

7.5 gives you A seeding which is the fastest group, in this instance $

14.5 gives you B seeding which is the second fast group, in this instance %

I think the problem is always, how to get in higher group if the group you are in rides their pace as per their seeding.

Sounds like the meme about 5 year experience needed for the job but to get the experience you need the job first.. 🤣 

It's just very hard to understand. The PPA Funride last year gave me a 7.3 finishing 6 minutes from the leader on a day with mostly a tail wind, shorter distance, flat, A-B started together I believe maybe C too. Main difference was only 160 odd finishers. They gave it a 1.04 beta and I am not sure why. It was way easier than the 99er was this weekend for me.

Edited February 10 by EJC

[ChrisF]

17 minutes ago, cadenceblur said:

Looks like the Tour De PPA is a waste then

 

Well conspiracy theory says Tour De PPA will result in a better seeding than Durbie Dash .... 

 

Let's see ...

[andydude]

41 minutes ago, EJC said:

Sounds like the meme about 5 year experience needed for the job but to get the experience you need the job first.. 🤣 

It's just very hard to understand. The PPA Funride last year gave me a 7.3 finishing 6 minutes from the leader on a day with mostly a tail wind, shorter distance, flat, A-B started together I believe maybe C too. Main difference was only 160 odd finishers. They gave it a 1.04 beta and I am not sure why. It was way easier than the 99er was this weekend for me.

What happened at Tour de PPA last year?

Looks like B rode 4 minutes faster than A with Alan Hatherley wiining ftom A?!

[EJC]

1 minute ago, andydude said:

What happened at Tour de PPA last year?

Looks like B rode 4 minutes faster than A with Alan Hatherley wiining ftom A?!

Interesting! What was the adjusted winning time and beta?

Edited February 10 by EJC

[andydude]

6 minutes ago, EJC said:

Interesting! What was the adjusted winning time and beta?

Adjusted winner time 02:32:45 with beta 0.75. 99er beta was 0.76.

Edit:

Tour de PPA times from A 2:44:15 and from B 2:40:22. And C was 02:44:38 but only one rider with rest around 2:50 20.

Edited February 10 by andydude

[JeffK]

Just a personal story of how my pursuit of a better seeding went for the last year, which probably shows what is just not good enough to move up to A: 

99er 2024 - Started in R due to no seeding - 2:54 alone effort

CTCT 2024 - Started in 1B - 2:55 with 3 others that rode to the front of 1A

DC 2024 - Ride with workmates, no effort to change seeding

Winelands 2025 - Seeded in B, asked for reseed A, won A. Rode quite hard to get a good time, NP around 320.

99er 2025 - Seeded %, dropped back to A hoping for a faster group. Won A. Rode quite hard as well with NP close to 320W again.

So to move up to A you need more than this I guess.

 

Edited February 10 by JeffK

[andydude]

6 minutes ago, JeffK said:

Just a personal story of how my pursuit of a better seeding went for the last year, which probably shows what is just not good enough to move up to A: 

99er 2024 - Started in R due to no seeding - 2:54 alone effort

CTCT 2024 - Started in 1B - 2:55 with 3 others that rode to the front of 1A

DC 2024 - Ride with workmates, no effort to change seeding

Winelands 2025 - Seeded in B, asked for reseed A, won A. Rode quite hard to get a good time, NP around 320.

99er 2025 - Seeded %, dropped back to A hoping for a faster group. Won A. Rode quite hard as well with NP close to 320W again.

So to move up to A you need more than this I guess.

 

Were you in the white shirt at 99er?

You should have asked for a 99er reseed to $. You are definitely strong enough for $/A!

Edited February 10 by andydude

[MongooseMan]

40 minutes ago, andydude said:

What happened at Tour de PPA last year?

Looks like B rode 4 minutes faster than A with Alan Hatherley wiining ftom A?!

In chronological order:
- A was neutralised through the Dbnvl crit circuit (the windy 4km exit from the racecourse), B & C were not.

- B caught A before the end of the neutral zone

- Race motorbike stopped in an intersection, A group rode into it.

- B was stopped to let A get ahead

- Another crash in A, at this point C caught and passed most of A (I was in C)

- Most of B finished ahead of A

- C finished "with" a lot of A

- Winning time was not really adjusted down, and only beta was set quite low

- This meant most of B & C got indexes in the 11-13 range, leading to very big racing groups at CTCT last year

 

The post-mortem from last year: 

 

Edited February 10 by MongooseMan

[JeffK]

2 hours ago, andydude said:

Were you in the white shirt at 99er?

You should have asked for a 99er reseed to $. You are definitely strong enough for $/A!

Yes, that was me, hopefully I did my part trying to get a better time for the group.

Was hoping the seeding would sort itself out, but I guess the only way to move up is to ask, which is a bit silly tbh.

Edited February 10 by JeffK

[MongooseMan]

Ended diving deep into the seeding calc rabbit hole, wrote a bit of a thesis 🙈, feel free to have a read, hopefully it's helpful 😀
 

 

Edited February 11 by MongooseMan

[bleedToWin]

Seeding is largely effective with a few flaws that get exaggerated to the point of breakdown the higher you go up the ladder. Using alphabet only, yes you can get up to B but you will never get seeded into A by riding with B, and once you are in A you will only loose it if you stop finishing with A for 6 months+.

So how does anyone get into A? You ride WP Champs or an early season WP league race where you can self seed into cat 1. You finish with the group and then you ask to be bumped into A when the first event using PPA seeding comes along.

Like some have mentioned there are a few events that you may get lucky at due to small number of entrants where more riders will be placed with the big dogs, like the late season PPA funride or even Oudtshoorn Cycle Tour.

[bleedToWin]

Now how do you get into $ at CTCT is a whole other can of worms. Last year you needed a seeding index below 3!