SwissVan Posted March 10, 2020 Share Some further reading for those interested. https://www.moneyweb.co.za/investing/few-survivors-in-the-market-sell-off/ Solid advise in this quote: "Market declines feel very uncomfortable, but real money is made by investing at the bottom of the market in quality companies at good prices." There certainly are short terms gains to be made in you have an appetite for risk. Perhaps better though to heed the above advise. I wish they would explain how to predict the bottom. or even just a teeny weeny bit above the bottom would be good Been there and failed miserably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Fastbastard Mayhem Posted March 10, 2020 Share I wish they would explain how to predict the bottom. or even just a teeny weeny bit above the bottom would be good Been there and failed miserably When you find it, please let me know. ???? My clients and I would love this bit of math. HODL now applies to normal markets and not just BTC. Edited March 10, 2020 by Captain Fastbastard Mayhem SwissVan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwissVan Posted March 10, 2020 Share When you find it, please let me know. My clients and I would love this bit of math. HODL now applies to normal markets and not just BTC. Even the experts who do this for a living can't get right, sometimes i think its better to just play darts... Captain Fastbastard Mayhem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carmichael Posted March 12, 2020 Share The Rand has properly tanked and with it the JSE. Must be some good opportunities in oil though, Sasol could be worth investigating...any thoughts? Aren't you f....g glad you did not buy Sasol ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slowbee Posted March 12, 2020 Share Aren't you f....g glad you did not buy Sasol ??I suspect it might get worse. They have some capex issue's as well due to environmental concerns, and then the balance sheet arrives with their US overspending. Carmichael 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris_ Posted March 12, 2020 Share How have the more active investors here positioned themselves given the current state of affairs? Just left everything alone and wait for the recovery? or, moved 1 or 2 positions or small sector changes? or, changed your whole outlook (and acted upon) the last say - 2 months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bertusras Posted March 12, 2020 Share This bit came through from Allan Gray a couple of days ago: Global asset prices are under extreme pressure as investors rush toperceived safe-haven assets in the face of a global economic slumpbrought on by the coronavirus. Even large companies with strongbalance sheets have fallen sharply, for example BHP is down 37%from January highs. Companies with highly geared balance sheetshave generally fallen over 50% in the last few weeks. There is little doubt that coronavirus will spread around the worldand cause a sharp economic slowdown. Given the current casenumber growth rate, it seems peak infections may occur within fivemonths and subside quickly thereafter. The direct impact on assetvaluations could potentially be a single year of lost earnings. Fora company trading on 15 times earnings this would indicate a 7%price fall. If businesses lose in a single year what they would havenormally made, this indicates a 14% price fall is appropriate. Thedownside scenario is if the coronavirus economic slowdown causesa far greater rolling recession as in 2009. Businesses that can survive a year of no cash flow should hold upwell; this does not apply to companies with substantial financialleverage. Fortunately, most South African businesses do not haveheavy debt loads, unlike many in the US, which have geared up to buyback shares. The obvious risk in our portfolio is Sasol. Sasol took onR145bn of debt to build a chemical plant in Louisiana. A US$35 oilprice puts the balance sheet under considerable strain. As of 6 March,Sasol accounted for 2.5% of the Allan Gray Equity Fund, 1.9% of theAllan Gray Balanced Fund and 0.9% of the Allan Gray Stable Fund;this was prior to the share falling 47% on 9 March. We think Sasolis undervalued at R87.50 per share – but the debt load makes thecompany a risky investment proposition. Ironically, the outlook for theoil price is the best it has been in a long time. US oil production growthhas plateaued in recent months and at these oil prices US productionwill slow sharply as the industry is cash flow negative at US$50, letalone US$35. US shale oil is not the only production source facingdeclines – the capital starvation of the past five years is beginning tobite in several jurisdictions. I think the current Saudi/Russian strategyis the right one for a strong stable market in the long term. (SaudiArabia and Russia seem to have decided not to defend a US$60oil price and rather let low prices drive US shale oil producers intobankruptcy and therefore stem supply). The recent price falls have created very exciting buyingopportunities. We are buyers of equities and South AfricanGovernment debt. Numerous companies are trading at free cashflow yields of over 10% and we have not seen expected total returnsof this magnitude since the early 2000s, when South African shareswere extremely out of favour, and the global financial crisis of2007/08, both of which proved to be exceptional opportunities toinvest in equities. I realise it sounds hollow to say now is the time to invest giventhe recent underperformance of our funds and the consistentoutperformance of cash over the past five years, but the rewardsof investing at times like this in the past have been substantial. Ascontrarian investors we invest in assets that we believe are tradingat a discount to their intrinsic value, the recent price action haswidened those discounts. Captain Fastbastard Mayhem and Spokey 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Fastbastard Mayhem Posted March 12, 2020 Share Yup. Lots of opportunity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwissVan Posted March 12, 2020 Share How have the more active investors here positioned themselves given the current state of affairs? Just left everything alone and wait for the recovery? or, moved 1 or 2 positions or small sector changes? or, changed your whole outlook (and acted upon) the last say - 2 months?Left my current investments where they are, various equity based funds in EU and USA. Trying to figure out when the right time (bottom) and what will be a good fund to invest in again while prices are diving for cover. I’m so glad I’m not retiring / cashing in, in the near future.... Chris_ and Carmichael 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris_ Posted March 12, 2020 Share I had made a lot of changes in Jan. I think the ZAR will keep depreciating and SA continues to quietly take pain. So probably 3/4 of my portfolio got moved to Rand hedge type stocks, and away from the SA consumer. Then Covid hit, my gold names initially held up a little better than the rest but today I mean just everything is getting crushed now so unless you're in cash theres no way through this. I have made a few cheeky buys in some big miners on the way down but its pretty dire right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwissVan Posted March 12, 2020 Share I had made a lot of changes in Jan. I think the ZAR will keep depreciating and SA continues to quietly take pain. So probably 3/4 of my portfolio got moved to Rand hedge type stocks, and away from the SA consumer. Then Covid hit, my gold names initially held up a little better than the rest but today I mean just everything is getting crushed now so unless you're in cash theres no way through this. I have made a few cheeky buys in some big miners on the way down but its pretty dire right now.WRT waiting for lower prices to buy, I guess it’s a question of how greedy you (investors) are.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris_ Posted March 12, 2020 Share WRT waiting for lower prices to buy, I guess it’s a question of how greedy you (investors) are.... Haha only sellers can pick the bottom. (comic sans probably req) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carmichael Posted March 19, 2020 Share Holy crap .... when to buy Capitec????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sawystertrance Posted March 19, 2020 Share That old aphorism applies: It's not timing the market, but time in the market Captain Fastbastard Mayhem and Help.Me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris_ Posted March 19, 2020 Share That old aphorism applies: It's not timing the market, but time in the market As does: If it can halve today, it can halve again tomorrow. Wayne pudding Mol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sawystertrance Posted March 19, 2020 Share I was wondering.. Is it possible that we may be saved from a downgrade by Moody's because of consideration given to the Covid outbreak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now