xCorWin Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 Its more like 4 chances each 1/124.... not quite the same as 1/31....But no worries... we all hold thumbs..
AndreDeV Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 Its more like 4 chances each 1/124.... not quite the same as 1/31....But no worries... we all hold thumbs..I hope I'll make it a liiiitle bit better for you: It is 1/123 because I think I'll get the one and then 123 will be left. Hahaha! Long Wheel Base 1
cat-i Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 Its more like 4 chances each 1/124.... not quite the same as 1/31....But no worries... we all hold thumbs.. You were in my mathematics class at Stellenbosch many many (many) moons ago. Trust you to get the mathematics right on this one - you always were the bright one!
Skubarra Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 Its more like 4 chances each 1/124.... not quite the same as 1/31....But no worries... we all hold thumbs.. But isn't 4 x 1/124 = 4/124 = 1/31?
xCorWin Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 Actually...its 1/124 + 1/123 + 1/122 + 1/121? cat-i 1
xCorWin Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 And Murphie's law says the more we talk about it the less our chances become... dirk.leroux 1
Long Wheel Base Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 And Murphie's law says the more we talk about it the less our chances become... Well then carry on talking so my chances get better
Skubarra Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 Actually... its 1/124 + 1/123 + 1/122 + 1/121?    Doesn't that equation ignores the probability that you can only win at a later round if you didn't win in an earlier round? ie 1/124 + 123/124 * 1/123 + ..... = 1/31  Of course that is before you factor in Murphy's law and Andre taking the 1 entry... cat-i 1
xCorWin Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 Ha ha... i think we each just have a 50/50 chance! Youre either going to get an entry or not! Skubarra and AndreDeV 2
Skubarra Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 Ha ha... i think we each just have a 50/50 chance! Youre either going to get an entry or not!I would prefer those odds yes...
xCorWin Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 They should just do the draw now... my head is starting to hurt...
428 others Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 Apparently you must also have more than a 1000 posts on the Hub too...Â
AndreDeV Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 I would love it if four of us would win and then we select the others as partners. Would love to meet such friendly, witty, action-loving guys   and spend four days with you. At least you know that your partner would more or less as fit as you are after all this training. If you win it, enjoy it! xCorWin and Skubarra 2
nomoregravity Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 But isn't 4 x 1/124 = 4/124 = 1/31? Just hoping the same logic doesn't apply for NOT winning, ie 4 x 123/124 = 496/124 = 397% So we're lucky that Murphy, AndreV and THAT guy with 2222 posts take the first three entries, which will at least leave the rest of us with only a 120/121 chance of not winning. Skubarra 1
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