New Zealand - The Good, The Bad and The Ugly.

[intern]

Tend to agree. Effects of these measures and decisions made will only be understood in the course of time.

 

In effect, we have exchanged the future of the young for that of the old. Nothing happens without consequences.

 

But she is prettier than merkel. I think her party will do better in the next election. Possibly an outright victory too

 

The election may be too far away for Labour to win. The warm post coital glow of 'beating' something which may not have needed all that much of a whipping in the first place will likely give way to the cold hard reality of mass unemployment, plummeting house prices and advancing inflation. As you so rightly say, no effect without side effect.

Some are saying 'it's the economy AND health, stupid'. But when it comes down to brass tacks, it's JUST the economy, stupid.

[patches]

Just got an internal staff email on our DHB's updated Covid-19 screening tool.

 

In the email it states:
 

"The new changes to the screening tool highlight that with the current extremely low rate of COVID-19, patients who are screened as having NO symptom or contact risks, have an extremely low risk of COVID-19.  Currently much less than a one in one hundred thousand chance."

[intern]

Just got an internal staff email on our DHB's updated Covid-19 screening tool.

 

In the email it states:

 

"The new changes to the screening tool highlight that with the current extremely low rate of COVID-19, patients who are screened as having NO symptom or contact risks, have an extremely low risk of COVID-19.  Currently much less than a one in one hundred thousand chance."

 

Better odds than winning the lottery I suppose, even if the outcome is probably gonna be worse.

 

Another thing, will be interesting to see how saved we are when our flu season arrives and the cupboard is bare.

[GrahamS2]

OMG. This again. Ardern is leading the charge globally. On track to sew up a pandemic that has felled just about every other economy. In the space of a couple of months. The economic windfalls are going to be enormous. NZ will be the only developed economy which will be operating largely normally. Everyone else will have COVID drag. Thank your lucky stars you have a leader that actually has some balls and leads using actual expert advice.

How is that going to work? The NZ economy is hugely dependent on interaction with other countries, who will not exactly be open for business. Nevermind the 200,000-odd tourism based jobs lost that are simply not possible to rehire since they can't afford the risk of tourists for a  long, long time.

[patham]

How is that going to work? The NZ economy is hugely dependent on interaction with other countries, who will not exactly be open for business. Nevermind the 200,000-odd tourism based jobs lost that are simply not possible to rehire since they can't afford the risk of tourists for a  long, long time.

 

The real reason why Jacinda wants to have a special open borders relationship with fellow low count numbers Australia as soon as possible is that she hopes like hell every single Aussie will holiday in Queenstown, seeing as they can't head to Bali.

 

Australia has a economy that is far from balanced, and quick googilism shows tourism is about 3% of GDP and 8% of export values. I see NZ gets about 6% of GDP from tourism and comprises a value of  20% of exports.

 

So NZ needs Australia for tourists a lot more than the other way around.  But either way, our balance of payments for both of us is messed up by this. Don't expect currency strengthening any time soon. 

[Wayne Potgieter]

So...on the subject of Bali....

 

I was recently awarded with a prestigious prize from one of my vendors and the prize was an all expense paid trip for me and the MRS to Bali. 5 star all the way. Also was awarded a separate trip to Las Vegas.

 

I had booked a family getaway to Queenstown and another to go house hunting in Christchurch.

 

Whilst I am glad that my family is safe and relatively unscathed by covid - all of these trips have been cancelled.

 

I love travelling more than most things, so I am a little annoyed by all of this. 

 

Just venting.

[DJR]

............ was awarded a separate trip to Las Vegas.............

You dodged a bullet Wayne.

[IceCreamMan]

Just got an internal staff email on our DHB's updated Covid-19 screening tool.

 

In the email it states:

 

"The new changes to the screening tool highlight that with the current extremely low rate of COVID-19, patients who are screened as having NO symptom or contact risks, have an extremely low risk of COVID-19.  Currently much less than a one in one hundred thousand chance."

 

Should read "and" contact risks . 

 

The sentence in isolation is a little confusing, 

[IceCreamMan]

The election may be too far away for Labour to win. The warm post coital glow of 'beating' something which may not have needed all that much of a whipping in the first place will likely give way to the cold hard reality of mass unemployment, plummeting house prices and advancing inflation. As you so rightly say, no effect without side effect.

Some are saying 'it's the economy AND health, stupid'. But when it comes down to brass tacks, it's JUST the economy, stupid.

 

She is getting great kudos for her handling of this issue at the minute. I guess time will tell. NZ due to its location and relative isolation makes it a lot easier to lock down. 

 

Lots of resilient saffas in NZ to assist the rebuild. 

[intern]

So...on the subject of Bali....

 

I was recently awarded with a prestigious prize from one of my vendors and the prize was an all expense paid trip for me and the MRS to Bali. 5 star all the way. Also was awarded a separate trip to Las Vegas.

 

I had booked a family getaway to Queenstown and another to go house hunting in Christchurch.

 

Whilst I am glad that my family is safe and relatively unscathed by covid - all of these trips have been cancelled.

 

I love travelling more than most things, so I am a little annoyed by all of this. 

 

Just venting.

 

 

I 'Liked this' reluctantly. This is the start of the effects we are all going to see. And our learned friend GrahamS2 puts his finger on it too - NZ is not going to be a Covid19-free destination, because that is incompatible with remaining Covid19-free.

 

Believe me, we are in deeeeeep poopie and the pain is only starting to become apparent to the complaint masses. I was talking with a neighbour yesterday who was telling me how miserable NZ was after 2008 (because international tourism took a big knock then). Right now, 2008 is looking like a freakin birthday present compared to what's coming. Everything you own (especially property but also cars, bikes and boats, etc) will be worth a lot less and you might find yourself with lower income and far greater debt. If, that is, you're among the fortunate still in work. If you're less fortunate, things are looking bleak.

 

By the way, who around here reckons 'buy local' is a good idea? Because if you do, I have some more bad news for you...

[intern]

Compliant, not complaint.

[patham]

I 'Liked this' reluctantly. This is the start of the effects we are all going to see. And our learned friend GrahamS2 puts his finger on it too - NZ is not going to be a Covid19-free destination, because that is incompatible with remaining Covid19-free.

 

Believe me, we are in deeeeeep poopie and the pain is only starting to become apparent to the complaint masses. I was talking with a neighbour yesterday who was telling me how miserable NZ was after 2008 (because international tourism took a big knock then). Right now, 2008 is looking like a freakin birthday present compared to what's coming. Everything you own (especially property but also cars, bikes and boats, etc) will be worth a lot less and you might find yourself with lower income and far greater debt. If, that is, you're among the fortunate still in work. If you're less fortunate, things are looking bleak.

 

By the way, who around here reckons 'buy local' is a good idea? Because if you do, I have some more bad news for you...

 

This is one big reshuffle of the global (and local) deck of cards, and the odds of getting a good hand are pretty slim.

 

And about buying local in NZ. Not too sure you can make cars or laptops out of milk, cheese, butter and salmon? And Aus is no better really either.

[intern]

This is one big reshuffle of the global (and local) deck of cards, and the odds of getting a good hand are pretty slim.

 

And about buying local in NZ. Not too sure you can make cars or laptops out of milk, cheese, butter and salmon? And Aus is no better really either.

 

This gets to the nub of the buy local fallacy. Great read here for those interested:

https://fee.org/articles/the-buy-local-fallacy/

 

An excerpt:  The late liberal economist Adam Smith took mercantilism to task in The Wealth of Nations over 200 years ago, explaining that increased productivity through specialization and economies of scale - not money - was the key to prosperity. The exact opposite of what the buy local movement espouses.

[intern]

Nub haha, should have used the opportunity to say nipple.

[Wayne Potgieter]

The election may be too far away for Labour to win. The warm post coital glow of 'beating' something which may not have needed all that much of a whipping in the first place will likely give way to the cold hard reality of mass unemployment, plummeting house prices and advancing inflation. As you so rightly say, no effect without side effect.

Some are saying 'it's the economy AND health, stupid'. But when it comes down to brass tacks, it's JUST the economy, stupid.

I am literally posting this award winning journalism just to get you riled up on what I think is a Friday (not really sure anymore)

 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12328854

[intern]

I am literally posting this award winning journalism just to get you riled up on what I think is a Friday (not really sure anymore)

 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12328854

Yep, aware of that; a week, as they say, is a long time in politics. The wave of enthusiasm for having 'won the battle on community transmission' and the feelz that destroying our economy was worth it, will hortly give way to the cold harsh reality of a great leap backwards in prosperity for a great number of people. Right now, we're still awash in government cash. But as economists like von Mises, Hazlitt and co. will note, it is the long run effects of any policy which must be weighed. The thing with pollies is they are only concerned with short term effects. After all, the electoral cycle, which doesn't generally provide sufficient time for the long run effects to become clear. In this case, with such drastic action taken, I do believe we shall get a good idea of what those consequences are within a few short months. September may...or may not (predictions are hard, especially about the future) be a bridge too far.

For sure, though, we are in for an exciting election.