New Zealand - The Good, The Bad and The Ugly.

[patches]

Well said Dude.

 

Also, hindsight is 20/20. 

 

Easy for me to sit back at the end of this and argue what was right and wrong, but much harder to make those calls in the beginning.

 

Anyway, back to the original point of this thread...where are you going on holiday when this is all stable?

 

Yup, that old hindsight stuff!

 

As for holidays...

 

I have 2 domestic ones on the cards (level 2 permitting).

 

Queenstown at the end of the month.

Ruapehu a month after that.

 

I booked my Queenstown flights last year sometime (along with other travels to Aus and such), and like you I had those plans scuppered. So I cancelled the Aus trips, but left the Queenstown flights on the cards.

 

 

Air NZ took it upon themselves to cancel those that fligh, without so much as an email. They have also not given any detail on if I get a refund, credit, Airpoints, IOU's on a napkin. So chances are I'll get credit for flights that I bought at a favourable price, and have to re-book at a a cringy one.

 

Such is life, and holidays are luxuries, so it's totally a 1st world problem.

 

How about you and your tribe? Any developments in the plan to migrate south (to the chosen land)?

Edited May 11, 2020 by patches

[Wayne Potgieter]

Yup, that old hindsight stuff!

 

As for holidays...

 

I have 2 domestic ones on the cards (level 2 permitting).

 

Queenstown at the end of the month.

Ruapehu a month after that.

 

I booked my Queenstown flights last year sometime (along with other travels to Aus and such), and like you I had those plans scuppered. So I cancelled the Aus trips, but left the Queenstown flights on the cards.

 

 

Air NZ took it upon themselves to cancel those that fligh, without so much as an email. They have also not given any detail on if I get a refund, credit, Airpoints, IOU's on a napkin. So chances are I'll get credit for flights that I bought at a favourable price, and have to re-book at a a cringy one.

 

Such is life, and holidays are luxuries, so it's totally a 1st world problem.

 

How about you and your tribe? Any developments in the plan to migrate south (to the chosen land)?

We are heading down south at the middle of June to go look at houses.

 

CHC is the favourite, but The lakes region is also a strong contender.

[DJR]

Yup!

 

It was for a segment on mothers day and how celebrations are different this year. They had a bunch of 3-10 second clips interviewing moms all over the show. hayleyearth and her little one featured in one of the clips.

 

TVNZ 1, 6pm news last night. About 10min in. Listen for the Saffer accent

We have an accent?     

[hayleyearth]

I don't want to nitpick what is your perfectly valid opinion, but using a share price as a proxy for the prognosis of a company, industry or economy is not appropriate.

 

It assumes the market is rational and all-knowing, and I don't think anyone can claim to have those skills in these times. It discounts aspects such as prescribed assets for pension type funds who have little choice in what to invest, and given interest rates are pretty low in this corner of the world, holding cash provides little return. In the hyper-inflation days in Zim, the stock exchange there had awesome returns in paper, if only because there was nothing else to buy.

 

Having said that, looking at how the simple indices have reacted over the last few months, the US and NZ markets have not had such a high % fall from peak as compared to Aus.

All that I was saying is that I think Interns comment that "everyone" is struggling is not correct. I know of a few that have had higher returns / revenue, I used the shares market as an indicator to where anyone can start to look at those companies.

 

I don't have the time nor do I think the hub will allow the character space on this thread to mention all including aspects to every side of what I'm referring to, hence me simplifying it here. I assumed for the ones that generally comment on everything as if they have "know how" of everything wouldn't need a full explanation.... Anyhow, I've been wrong before too.

[hayleyearth]

For real?

 

Tell us more!

Apparently so. Got a text at 6:13pm from a colleague saying she saw me on TV, then a couple more for friends, Layla's school friends mom's, etc etc

 

I didn't know the interview was for tv or news! Thought it was just for some student project or something.

[Wayne Potgieter]

SA is coping just fine

Is it though?

 

The conversations I had over the weekend with a few mates and my in laws says otherwise (granted, small sample set of people hence why I am asking you the genuine question)

 

Not trolling you at all - I am genuinely interested. I have a lot of people back in SA I care very deeply for and am worried.

 

The Covid stats for SA dont look encouraging at all. The blatant racism and racial tensions seem to be escalating and my thoughts are that the vast majority of the population cant/wont socially distance to allow the virus spread to slow to a manageable rate.

 

I tried to keep up with the covid thread, but that's near impossible.

[intern]

All I know for sure is that actuaries are going to be in great demand trying to work out how insurance premiums need to change.

 

Most science only happens in hindsight, once data is known and can be analysed. Science on the fly is never going to be that reliable, but it is still better than random guessing on the fly (typical Trump style).

 

And as I have mentioned before on this thread, there are going to be plenty of academic papers to be written in this field in the long term, and looking at actuarial death rates over a statistically meaningful time period will be one of them.   

 

Astute observation; someone else sent this to me: When ministers make statements about coronavirus policy they invariably say that they are “following the science". But cutting-edge science is messy and unclear, a contest of ideas arbitrated by facts, a process of conjecture and refutation. This is not new. Almost two centuries ago Thomas Huxley described “The great tragedy of science – the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact.”

[intern]

All that I was saying is that I think Interns comment that "everyone" is struggling is not correct. I know of a few that have had higher returns / revenue, I used the shares market as an indicator to where anyone can start to look at those companies.

 

I don't have the time nor do I think the hub will allow the character space on this thread to mention all including aspects to every side of what I'm referring to, hence me simplifying it here. I assumed for the ones that generally comment on everything as if they have "know how" of everything wouldn't need a full explanation.... Anyhow, I've been wrong before too.

 

And fair enough. Of course, I live in the regions, where near everyone is struggling. There's a chap two houses up who desperately needs an operation on his foot, or he will lose it (infection on the bone following a failed ankle fusion). The hospital is empty. Peter can't get his operation. He is going to lose his foot.

Another old ducky up the drag needs a new hip. She can barely get out of bed and is zorched on painkillers. No op for her.

Almost everyone with school aged kids is absolutely struggling to get some work done while trying to educate children at the same time. Both the work and the kids are being neglected.

Businesses are failing left right and centre. Tourism is huge where I live, it is gone and so are those businesses. While the boost of 'free cash' helped, it hasjust delayed and quite possibly will exacerbate the pain down the road. Basic economics, in a very literal sense (read the book of the same title by Thomas Sowell) tells us this.

Having said all that, I think it unfair to characterise my comments as being 'on everything as if I know everything'; I am knowledgeable and I make no apology for that. I also have an inquiring mind and don't often go with the flow. This too is something I pride myself on, though it continually gets me into trouble and quite often serves me pretty well. But, you know, no skin off my nose.

A good day to you, you famous person ;-)

[intern]

We are heading down south at the middle of June to go look at houses.

 

CHC is the favourite, but The lakes region is also a strong contender.

 

Bide your time WP; at least, that's what I would do.

In other news, my house is now on the market, a very real consequence of our current situation. No, I am not happy about it...

[intern]

Very good article here about the intransigent idiots like myself:

 

https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/12-05-2020/a-modest-defence-of-the-coronavirus-contrarians/

[Wayne Potgieter]

Bide your time WP; at least, that's what I would do.

In other news, my house is now on the market, a very real consequence of our current situation. No, I am not happy about it...

 

Yeah, will probably rent for another year to strike when the iron is hottest.

[intern]

Yeah, will probably rent for another year to strike when the iron is hottest.

 

Onya mate. Bit unfortunate that we find ourselves in a sort of zero sum environment where one person's gain must come at another's loss, but our duty as ever is to our families first.

Be a good time soon, too, to pick up a camper van or a boat if you're into that sort of thing. Jucy's fleet alone is over 4,000.

[GrahamS2]

All I know for sure is that actuaries are going to be in great demand trying to work out how insurance premiums need to change.

 

Most science only happens in hindsight, once data is known and can be analysed. Science on the fly is never going to be that reliable, but it is still better than random guessing on the fly (typical Trump style).

 

And as I have mentioned before on this thread, there are going to be plenty of academic papers to be written in this field in the long term, and looking at actuarial death rates over a statistically meaningful time period will be one of them.   

Funny enough I'm just getting involved in a project to collate and manage COVID-19 patient data, across multiple health systems and universities. It will be used to learn and predict better outcomes for patient management. With technologies like these in place an outbreak or pandemic can be far better managed on a global scale.

[GrahamS2]

Well said Dude.

 

Also, hindsight is 20/20. 

 

Easy for me to sit back at the end of this and argue what was right and wrong, but much harder to make those calls in the beginning.

 

Anyway, back to the original point of this thread...where are you going on holiday when this is all stable?

We're planning a 2 week jaunt around South island when the borders open up. 

[patham]

We're planning a 2 week jaunt around South island when the borders open up. 

 

At this rate there won't be much choice for an overseas jaunt.

[GrahamS2]

At this rate there won't be much choice for an overseas jaunt.

Precisely. Had a ski trip to Canada planned for Christmas, but that won't be happening...