New Zealand - The Good, The Bad and The Ugly.

[davetapson]

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Edited June 18, 2020 by davetapson

[patches]

If you guys (or gals) ever want a laugh and some realistic and informative tool reviews, watch a Canadian guy on YouTube called AvE.

 

He's crass, brutish, but extremely intelligent and funny. He actually takes the tools apart, inspects manufacturing processes and materials. And basically tells you where the tool-maker took shortcuts, or went above and beyond.

Here's a Festool one

 

[intern]

Never really heard that someone calls themselves to be knowledgeable... That's usually something someone says of someone else as a good characteristics. Generally people with pure knowledge are quite humble too.

 

Opinionated vs knowledgeable.

 

Here's an update from an opinionated and not knowledgeable person:

 

NZ GDP down 1.6 percent. Aus down 0.3 percent. For the most recent quarter.

 

We had no lockdown for...93 percent of this period.

 

Consider this your first serving of humble pie. There's plenty more in the oven. 

[intern]

If you guys (or gals) ever want a laugh and some realistic and informative tool reviews, watch a Canadian guy on YouTube called AvE.

 

He's crass, brutish, but extremely intelligent and funny. He actually takes the tools apart, inspects manufacturing processes and materials. And basically tells you where the tool-maker took shortcuts, or went above and beyond.

 

Here's a Festool one

 

 

Dang there goes today's productivity.

[Wayne Potgieter]

 

 

NZ GDP down 1.6 percent. Aus down 0.3 percent. For the most recent quarter.

 

 

Not arguing, but have an interesting piece of data that I have just come across.

 

I am sitting in a sales webinar with MYOB at the moment (this will make sense to you as you sort of know what i do for a living) and MYOB have been running some telemetry on invoices raised by all of their clients in the SME and Large enterprise space and in NZ they are seeing invoicing QTY and Values as being back to normal figures.

 

Naturally, just raising an invoice does not mean that it will be paid. But the stat is pretty interesting.

[davetapson]

Not arguing, but have an interesting piece of data that I have just come across.

 

I am sitting in a sales webinar with MYOB at the moment (this will make sense to you as you sort of know what i do for a living) and MYOB have been running some telemetry on invoices raised by all of their clients in the SME and Large enterprise space and in NZ they are seeing invoicing QTY and Values as being back to normal figures.

 

Naturally, just raising an invoice does not mean that it will be paid. But the stat is pretty interesting.

 

I think MYOB have fired 300 staff? 

 

I remember this because I tried to interview for them - wrote a test for them, sent it to them and then got a snotty email from their HR saying that if I couldn't be arsed to do their test I'm not the kind of person they want to have working for them.  To which I replied, "check your email" but had another option, so didn't chase it up.

 

I can't find evidence because all web searches lead to how to do redundancies on MYOB (ironic?  maybe.)

[Wayne Potgieter]

I think MYOB have fired 300 staff? 

 

I remember this because I tried to interview for them - wrote a test for them, sent it to them and then got a snotty email from their HR saying that if I couldn't be arsed to do their test I'm not the kind of person they want to have working for them.  To which I replied, "check your email" but had another option, so didn't chase it up.

 

I can't find evidence because all web searches lead to how to do redundancies on MYOB (ironic?  maybe.)

I sell two MYOB products and have monthly catch ups with the entire partner network.

 

Doubt this is public knowledge at this point.

 

Actually, If i am honest, I am still in the webinar but the next bits are pretty boring.

[patches]

Dang there goes today's productivity.

 

Yeah, I went down a very deep AvE rabbit hole a few months back.

 

I'd watch 45min of his tool reviews on the bus to work, and another 45min on the bus home.

 

He does some good ones on socket wrenches where he builds a rig to test them to failure.

 

 

He also built what he calls "a janky ventilator", which he built by following the medical standards for ventilators.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqRgISFuE0k

Edited June 18, 2020 by patches

[intern]

Not arguing, but have an interesting piece of data that I have just come across.

 

I am sitting in a sales webinar with MYOB at the moment (this will make sense to you as you sort of know what i do for a living) and MYOB have been running some telemetry on invoices raised by all of their clients in the SME and Large enterprise space and in NZ they are seeing invoicing QTY and Values as being back to normal figures.

 

Naturally, just raising an invoice does not mean that it will be paid. But the stat is pretty interesting.

 

You don't argue WP, you engage in discourse ;-).

 

(Good) economists always advise looking at the long run outcomes of any policy or course of action. With the government pumping us all full of free money, they are effectively kicking the can down the road. Right now, there is still a sense of elation and we can do this and we got it beat (notwithstanding recent evidence of the current administration's chronic incompetence...and if you watch politics, you will know that incompetence is in the DNA of the current lot) and there is most certainly also a sense of financial security. It doesn't surprise me in the least than a good number of businesses are experiencing high demand for products and services (pent-up demand, in other words). Fast food, even some durable consumer goods, haircuts and other personal services.

But remember, it is the long run we have to consider, not the short term feel good-ism. The can may be kicked down the road, but chickens come home to roost and the cows apparently come home at some point too. We can mask (pardon the pun) the reality of economic devastation for political purposes for a short time only. Why do I say political purposes? Because there is an election in September. This rabble have only appeared competent in the event of a tragedy, where the more easily swayed have responded to the notion that a hug and a cuddle are the same thing as effective political leadership. Christchurch was a gift to the PM, no matter how distasteful even saying such a thing might be. Same with White Island. And now most assuredly with COVID. They're pushing this narrative of 'hard and early', when nothing could be further from the truth. I mean, as of earlier this week, they still had not secured the borders effectively (and given the propensity to either embellish the truth on the one hand, or fail to perform any operational checks on the other, who knows if this situation persists to the minute).

Anyway, the economy is not, as the PM claimed a few weeks back, '95% back to normal'. We have no tourism, our biggest industry. We're not feeling that yet, because free money etc, but believe me, in the medium to longer term, we will feel it and we will feel it hard. Up to 20% of people are employed, directly or indirectly, in tourism.

Things might be peachy right now, but very bad things are going to happen. When the figures come out for the next quarter, we will have a clearer idea of the true impact of shutting down an economy. You might think this has some good points, like for example finally making housing more affordable to first home buyers, or reduced environmental impact. But when people don't have jobs and the housing market is going down, which I believe it inevitably will (as it did, steeply, after the 2008 GFC), who's going to buy? Imagine you'd saved 50k or whatever, are you going to roll the dice and potentially see that become 0 owing to decreasing equity?

Yes, negative Nelly. But there must and shall be consequences. And on top of that, now that COVID is well and truly back, in our flu season this time, what now? Another lockdown? The government is caught in a catch-22. It told us lockdown was necessary the first time, so if we don't do it again, they were mistaken the first time (governments are not in the business of admitting fault or failure, particularly not on this scale). If we do do it again, the cupboard is now bare and the anticipations for economic contraction can be seen in estimates which put house price retreat at up to 50 percent.

 

Anyway, I hope everyone here is having a happy Friday. Pissing with rain in Whakatown, but we need a good soaking!

[intern]

Dang.

 

We should have gone into co-ownership and I'd save you the bother of storing it by keeping it at my place... 

 

Oh, get a shed already you two.

 

Speaking of sheds, anyone seen Allen Millyard on YouTube? Dude creates amazing motorcycles and engines out of old parts. For EG built a Kawasaki Super Six by sawing up a few 900 barrels, crankcases and heads, then rebuilding the crank and camshafts, welding up the barrels, cases and heads, and...ja, old dudes in sheds, amazing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhrLg6mZQIo&t=4s

 

(Patches...enjoy the lost productivity on this one mate!)

[intern]

I sell two MYOB products and have monthly catch ups with the entire partner network.

 

Doubt this is public knowledge at this point.

 

Actually, If i am honest, I am still in the webinar but the next bits are pretty boring.

Sounds almost like a Webinar. Or Zoom conf call...

[intern]

I don't want this message to come out wrong....

 

But if from 1994 the Government built on what we had then, and only went upwards, didn't promise free everything but created opportunities for all. Apprenticeships, More Jobs, Easier access to finance, Free Schooling, Free Trade School not Varsity. Upgraded medical teachings to allow as many students that wanted to study it, providing they qualified (Marks Wise or Financially as to not be a burden on the state).

 

Would we be in a totally different position now?

 

In a way I want to think yes, but then reality tells me it doesn't matter what was provided, people would still want to live in remote areas where financially it makes no sense to offer services as the cost out-ways the Pro's. That and the fact that every country has Slum areas.

 

Ideal solutions just don't work in reality, never mind the virtual world, Sim City is proof that no matter how much planning or "Money" you have its impossible to have an always thriving economy. So we can learn from that.

 

On a side note, I was reading an article about now is the time to provide a "Universal Income" whilst the idea sounds great, it could lead to a society of non-providers. But then it got me thinking. Isn't the real solution to have one global currency. As lets be honest, why does production costs have to be different from country to country if the value of human labour is now the same everywhere? Surely that will bring every country into the same play ground and cause all nations to automatically upgrade the lifestyle of their citizens? I mean why the hell should I have to work 20x more to be able to visit the UK? I understand their salaries are lower, but how nice would it be if we were all on the same playing field.

 

If we could get there, there would be a lot less people making tons of money and it would distribute wealth everywhere... Well that's my theory....

 

Let the abuse begin ;-) oh and Happy Friday everyone!!!

 

 

Missed this one Rad. UBI a shockingly bad idea. One global currency, also shockingly bad idea. While these things are complicated, the essence of it is that money is not the same thing as wealth; it is a token and nothing more. Money is only worth something when it is backed by productivity (when people are given 'free money', productivity is the first traitor up against the wall).

Different nations have different economies and different productivity (and also, different money supply - see for eg Zim and Venezuela). Different currency is a good thing, as it reflects this to a degree. Massive oversimplifications, but there you are.

As always, I absolutely highly recommend reading Basic Economics by Thomas Sowell. Explains a lot of how the world really works.

[intern]

To this bit:

 

As lets be honest, why does production costs have to be different from country to country if the value of human labour is now the same everywhere? Surely that will bring every country into the same play ground and cause all nations to automatically upgrade the lifestyle of their citizens? I mean why the hell should I have to work 20x more to be able to visit the UK? I understand their salaries are lower, but how nice would it be if we were all on the same playing field.

 

Supply and demand and differing labour laws are your culprits here. And laws tend to be extensions, albeit crude ones, of culture and society. To the bold bit, fairness is an interpretation, not an objective reality.

[patches]

I heard and interesting take (by an economist) on the stimulus package.

 

I'm no financial expert (purchasing 2 Husqvarna's will tell you that  ) and I may butcher my recount of his wise words, but in essence he said the current strategy, which involves the selling of government bonds, ultimately puts money in the hands of those who have money and are more conservative with their spending. They are likely to save, invent on property, or if they do splurge, it'll be on something like art or classic cars. This does very little to stimulate the economy as a whole.

 

He went on to say that once off payments to everyone would circulate much more far and wide than the current strategy.

Anyway, that is just what I heard on a morning news show

[intern]

I heard and interesting take (by an economist) on the stimulus package.

 

I'm no financial expert (purchasing 2 Husqvarna's will tell you that  ) and I may butcher my recount of his wise words, but in essence he said the current strategy, which involves the selling of government bonds, ultimately puts money in the hands of those who have money and are more conservative with their spending. They are likely to save, invent on property, or if they do splurge, it'll be on something like art or classic cars. This does very little to stimulate the economy as a whole.

 

He went on to say that once off payments to everyone would circulate much more far and wide than the current strategy.

 

Anyway, that is just what I heard on a morning news show

 

Sounds like it may have been Shamubeel Eaqub. The payments to date have been quite well targeted, I think, in that they have gone to employers with the express purpose of paying directly on to employees who are out of work. The increases for those on the benefit, are a bit harder to understand.

But targeting is one thing. When the government is finished giving, it has to start taking...and hard, at that, given the massive debt blowout we're staring down now.

[davetapson]

Sounds like it may have been Shamubeel Eaqub. The payments to date have been quite well targeted, I think, in that they have gone to employers with the express purpose of paying directly on to employees who are out of work. The increases for those on the benefit, are a bit harder to understand.

But targeting is one thing. When the government is finished giving, it has to start taking...and hard, at that, given the massive debt blowout we're staring down now.

 

Yeah, I'm just waiting for the "Well, we have to pay back the debt accrued during Covid, so..."

 

And it's the "so..." that's got me worried.