Doctor alleged to have doped British Tour de France cyclists

[deanbean]

One of the major "benefits" to blood doping and EPO and some of the other treatments to come out of the woodwork in the last few years is the maintenance of the haematocrit levels as the stage race progresses, where pan agua, it would show a decline, so the metric to look for would be a slow drop in the average speed through the tour, as against a maintenance of the speeds as the tour progresses. Up to the anoracks

 

One sure sign of doping would be the rider who seems to get stronger as the tour progresses, but who just maintains his strength, as against the clean riders who are actually weakening. Last years Giro springs to mind as a possible illustration of this.

[Fat Boab]

Anoraks on the case, rest of us pseudo scientists can log off now. 

 

Just as a matter of interest, anyone think Porte will win a Grand Tour since his departure from Sky or will G be the man? I find it fascinating the way trackies are transformed into potential Grand Tour winners. 

 

[Fat Boab]

One of the major "benefits" to blood doping and EPO and some of the other treatments to come out of the woodwork in the last few years is the maintenance of the haematocrit levels as the stage race progresses, where pan agua, it would show a decline, so the metric to look for would be a slow drop in the average speed through the tour, as against a maintenance of the speeds as the tour progresses. Up to the anoracks

 

One sure sign of doping would be the rider who seems to get stronger as the tour progresses, but who just maintains his strength, as against the clean riders who are actually weakening. Last years Giro springs to mind as a possible illustration of this.

 

 

By average speed, do you mean of a particular rider, be it a podium contender or otherwise?

[rattlesnake]

Leading times up Alp d'Huez..... at least enough to raise suspicion don't you think?

 

[Pure Savage]

Leading times up Alp d'Huez..... at least enough to raise suspicion don't you think?

No ways, if it was froome maybe, but the dude that camps out in Columbia for 8 months of the year, never.

[Gen]

Out of curiosity, what does the list look like up Mt Ventoux?

[Gen]

Would actually be rather interesting to the see list up all the iconic climbs.

 

 

And not just the TDF ones.. those Giro ones too

[deanbean]

By average speed, do you mean of a particular rider, be it a podium contender or otherwise?

What ever metric you choose, be it the pelotons speed or the speed of a rider

EDIT; It would be an indication of a cleaner peloton, if the avg speed drops, but this is complicated by the mountains typically being in the last 2 weeks

Leading times up Alp d'Huez..... at least enough to raise suspicion don't you think?

You can't take the speed up the Alpe in isolation, you have to consider the stage as a whole.

[deanbean]

Would actually be rather interesting to the see list up all the iconic climbs.

 

 

And not just the TDF ones.. those Giro ones too

I'd love to see the Vuelta times

[Andrew Steer]

Leading times up Alp d'Huez..... at least enough to raise suspicion don't you think?

 

Would you not expect a 5'5 57kg Columbian mountain goat who's basically been altitude training since he was born to be ''up there" on the climbs?

I don't like Movistar and I don't trust the Spanish in general after Puerto, but Quintana was born to climb, and albeit that leaderboard is pretty much a wall of shame, him being on it ranks far lower on my bull****'ometer than most of those guys 10/12/15kgs heavier 

[jcza]

scivspseudosci3.jpg

 

I think in this case we don't have science available, other than the test conducted by the doc based in CT which proves Froome always had a big engine but ate too many pies. Took Sky a couple of years to figure out he had to lose some weight but its understandable. These things take time.  

[Gen]

You know. .

 

Climbs like Madeleine, Tourmalet and the mighty Galilbier are hectic.

 

The approach also would factor in.. what have they gone over before they hit any of the iconic climbs, what stage of the tour it is as well as GC standings..makes a big difference (one would think ) when it comes to how fast any are climbed..

 

EDIT.. I SEE DEANBEAN SAID THE SAME

[rattlesnake]

Would you not expect a 5'5 57kg Columbian mountain goat who's basically been altitude training since he was born to be ''up there" on the climbs?

I don't like Movistar and I don't trust the Spanish in general after Puerto, but Quintana was born to climb, and albeit that leaderboard is pretty much a wall of shame, him being on it ranks far lower on my bull****'ometer than most of those guys 10/12/15kgs heavier 

Here is the old list.... look where Nairo would slot (39min22) in and look at some of the names well below him on the list who rode in the "Very doped" years.... i.e. maxed out EPO doses.

 

http://www.climbing-records.com/2013/07/all-time-top-100-fastest-rides-on.html

 

I concede that Nairo is a small climber but, but arguably has a higher BMI (20.8) than Michael Rasmussen (34th) 19.49.... so physcially a guy like Rasmussen is just as capable of going uphill as fast (if not faster) based on body weight. There are a number of guys on the list that are of similar height and weight to Nairo. Oh, and we know Rasmussen is a convicted doper.

 

In my mind there is enough info to say that a performance like this was more on the abnormal than normal side.

[Fat Boab]

Leading times up Alp d'Huez..... at least enough to raise suspicion don't you think?

 

You mean these times? Showing the times from 2008-2015, if the data is valid from Wiki, are placed in the range 14th-35th out of a rank of 39?

 

I don't see that as evidence that the current elite are flying up Alp d'Huez faster, or even as fast, as those from the pre-2008 era? Maybe I didn't get your point, seriously.

 

 

[Eldron]

Religion & doping - zero proof either way but still the most hotly debated threads on thehub.

 

Crazy no?

[BDF]

I was in the process of plotting something similar, when you beat me to it!

 

The data is interesting and if you want to apply the null-hypothesis (good luck!), ie is it possible that other factors have influenced, in this case, av speed than doping alone? eg topography of route, weather, bike/rider technology, nutritional/training impact etc etc. If these other factors are influential, can they be quantified and backed out of the trend to 'reveal' any impact of doping? Not even on a Friday, does it seem plausible to do this objectively...imho.

 

If there any stats gurus out there, here's a question for you, which may apply a bit of science to the debate: is there a statistical significance between the years post-2005 and the 10 years prior to 2005?

I think that the longer the period the time series covers the more legitimate a trend becomes. The influencing factors you mentioned are all important and become more so the shorter the time period in the series. Because this graphic covers such a long term I believe it diminishes the relevance of the influencing factors.

 

I find it interesting that he trend pre and during the "Lance era" follows a pretty straight line. He seems to have picked up where the previous winners left off! A definite dip after the Lace era though.