How do-able is a sub 3 in 94.7?

[Eldron]

Yahtzee... now if you really want to be in the game you change your gearing...you will be unstoppable

 

Last year my gearing was 34x13 - it worked great! Hold on - that was 2012 I think.

[IdeJongh]

Ok some nerdism -

 

My Previous 2 94.7s where both 2:53s, looking at my avg VAM and correlating that to the VAM at higher gradients (which you will have this year since you have more climbing for the same distance) - at the same fitness level I'm likely to be 8mins slower on the new route putting me just outside the 3hr mark (bunch dependent of course).

 

Did Emperor's in 2:40 this year so we'll see I guess....

[rouxtjie]

Last year my gearing was 34x13 - it worked great! Hold on - that was 2012 I think.

hhehehhe what I meant was chucking a road crank upfront...my a 105 compact. And then of course finding a frame with enough clearance to handle said crank.

[sometime]

6 - 8 hours a week you should be well under a 3 hour race time. My 40-something year old wife did sub 3 last year on that amount of training after years off the bike and started from a very average batch. If you can't do it then your training is very poor, or you're not prepared to suffer enough in a race.

[GaryvdM]

6 - 8 hours a week you should be well under a 3 hour race time. My 40-something year old wife did sub 3 last year on that amount of training after years off the bike and started from a very average batch. If you can't do it then your training is very poor, or you're not prepared to suffer enough in a race.

 

If some one fails to get a sub 3, assuming the cause is poor quality training is foolish. There are so many different factors involved, like say natural talent....

Edited June 25, 2014 by GaryvdM

[Frosty]

On this topic.. My goal for 94.7 this year is 2:40. My current seeding index as per http://results.racet...indme.aspx?ss=1 is 19.82. Should I work on improving this, or do you think it is sufficient?

Don't know what 19.82 seeding index means. You can go look at the stats, but its not very often that there are many sub 2h40's in anything higher than D bunch.

I think you'll be ok. I started D last year with similar index. If you're worried make sure you get a decent result at Race 4 Victory to improve your seeding.

Assuming the Beta is 1 and ignoring the route changes, last year's winnings time * (1 + Your index) = 2:08:41 * 1.1982 = 2:34:11. So according to your seeding you are in with more than a shout (as long as you wear your helmet )

Following on from Skubarra's equation, based on last years result and route that means a rider would need to achieve a seeding index of 39.87 to break the 3hr barrier last year.

 

2:08:41 * 1.3987 = 2:59.59

 

For 2014:

Assuming a winning time of 2:15:00 this year, if you want to break 3hrs your target seeding index is 33.3.

The seeding index is just that - an index, that stacks one in numerical order for placement in a starting group. The more people with a better seeding index, the further back one starts.

 

I dropped back to "I" last year to help a friend, who have never broken 3:15 in 10 attempts, and we finished on 2:51. He kept saying the group was riding too slow, and wanted to go faster. Only when he had finished did he realise that holding back in the beginning and along certain sections of the route allowed him to finish stronger, and that included riding away from the I-bunch from the Wilds.

 

Most times the problem is burning too many of one's matches early because of that "I feel strong" feeling.

 

@GaryvdM - if I'm correct, you rode in the BL bunch at the Carnival City Macsteel Classic, and finished 7 minutes off the winning time for the bunch. If you can work on finishing with the group, a 2:40 is definitely on the cards. Try to improve your seeding, but also try to improve your position in the bunch and finish with the top guys.

[Eldron]

hhehehhe what I meant was chucking a road crank upfront...my a 105 compact. And then of course finding a frame with enough clearance to handle said crank.

 

Don't waste your time.

 

Lot's of the downhill is too fast to pedal anyway and knobblies don't go that fast!

 

If you're racing for time take a road bike - if you're having fun take the mtb. The year Iron and I did it on SSers is still my favourite 94.7!

[Skubarra]

The seeding index is just that - an index, that stacks one in numerical order for placement in a starting group. The more people with a better seeding index, the further back one starts.

 

Not sure what you mean? If there are more people with good seeding indexes than usual the bunches further back will also have stronger riders than usual. You will still be in a group that broadly reflects your ability.

[Frosty]

Ok some nerdism -

 

My Previous 2 94.7s where both 2:53s, looking at my avg VAM and correlating that to the VAM at higher gradients (which you will have this year since you have more climbing for the same distance) - at the same fitness level I'm likely to be 8mins slower on the new route putting me just outside the 3hr mark (bunch dependent of course).

 

Did Emperor's in 2:40 this year so we'll see I guess....

Remember that there may be extra climbing, but there will also be extra downhills.

[sometime]

If some one fails to get a sub 3, assuming the cause is poor quality training is foolish. There are so many different factors involved, like say natural talent....

 

That's a cop out. Natural talent is what you need to be in the top 5% of your game. If that's not your objective then hard work, discipline and resilience will get you far enough.

 

Trust me if you invest 6 - 8 hours in quality training and simultaneously manage your lifestyle (diet, weight, health) then a sub 3 hour is easily achievable. And no the bike doesn't come into it at all.

[Frosty]

Not sure what you mean? If there are more people with good seeding indexes than usual the bunches further back will also have stronger riders than usual. You will still be in a group that broadly reflects your ability.

Yes, you will be with people of similar ability, but that doesn't mean you will go faster.

 

In a smaller race, the variance between the best and highest (worst sounds degrading) index is greater than a big race. Therefore one stands a better chance of riding faster in a small race as the "stronger" riders generally pull the less-stronger riders in that bunch.

[jcza]

I saw okes go sub 3 on single speed MTBs with knobblies :eek:

[Skubarra]

Yes, you will be with people of similar ability, but that doesn't mean you will go faster.

 

In a smaller race, the variance between the best and highest (worst sounds degrading) index is greater than a big race. Therefore one stands a better chance of riding faster in a small race as the "stronger" riders generally pull the less-stronger riders in that bunch.

 

Ok I get you, it's a nice opportunity when you are in a smallish group with riders who are slightly stronger than you. But it can work both ways, you can get dropped at the first big climb with nobody around to help you work your way back.

 

That said, in my experience groups catch each other all the time, big and small races, so there is often the opportunity to work your way up the field and vica versa a good seeding doesn't guarantee you won't be swamped by "weaker" riders at some stage.

[GaryvdM]

@GaryvdM - if I'm correct, you rode in the BL bunch at the Carnival City Macsteel Classic, and finished 7 minutes off the winning time for the bunch. If you can work on finishing with the group, a 2:40 is definitely on the cards. Try to improve your seeding, but also try to improve your position in the bunch and finish with the top guys.

 

That's all correct. I did a bit of time on the front of the bunch that day which was completely unnecessary...

[Bianchisti]

Ok some nerdism -

 

My Previous 2 94.7s where both 2:53s, looking at my avg VAM and correlating that to the VAM at higher gradients (which you will have this year since you have more climbing for the same distance) - at the same fitness level I'm likely to be 8mins slower on the new route putting me just outside the 3hr mark (bunch dependent of course).

 

Did Emperor's in 2:40 this year so we'll see I guess....

 

How much climbing this year?

[GaryvdM]

That's a cop out. Natural talent is what you need to be in the top 5% of your game. If that's not your objective then hard work, discipline and resilience will get you far enough.

 

Trust me if you invest 6 - 8 hours in quality training and simultaneously manage your lifestyle (diet, weight, health) then a sub 3 hour is easily achievable. And no the bike doesn't come into it at all.

 

So I got a sub 3 last year on much less than 6-8hr/week training. Yet there are riders in my club who do much more training than that, training that as far as I can tell is good quality, and yet they are happy to just get a sub 4. We all have different starting points, and there is a limit to how much training can make us faster...

 

(I do agree about the bike.)