2015 Momentum 947

[Rob22]

You can ZIP the file, then attach.

 

Will be interesting to see the comparison, as I've used Strava data for most of the bunches (looked up the name son Racetec to check they were in the bunch and not a solo rider (either off the back of a faster group, or a solo TT to the finish).

 

The slower the times, the harder it will be to collect data, as they riders might be hopping on an off other groups.

See if you can open this??

Split_Time_Calculator_ For Web2015.zip

[Frosty]

See if you can open this??

Yes, I can

[Frosty]

See if you can open this??

Your calculations for the first half are about 5-8 minutes faster for the Elites, VA and AL through the points on the table - this is compared to the data I was able to pull from the actual rides last year). It means people wanting a good time are having to ride faster than they're capable of in the first half and probably hit the wall as a result.

 

For a 2:22 - 2:30 (most of the racing groups)

• Heartbreak Hill shows 17-18 minutes, but the fastest times through there was closer to 25 mins (Elite).
• M1 @ Marlboro (41-43 vs 48 mins) 
• St Johns School (0:59 - 1:03 vs 1:08)

 

I haven't look at the rest yet.

 

Below are the forecast splits against 2014 actual data for 4 groups (Elite, 2:30, 2:45 and 3:00). It shows the time at each point, with the percentage difference, i.e % faster than actual.

 

As you can see, the groups are slower in the begin, compared to the finish.

IMO, someone using your split calculator to try break a certain time will think they are behind schedule, push on a bit and... (1) finish faster than planned, or (2) hit the wall and limp home.

 

 

[Prince]

What's up with the "route diversion" that the route map shows on the website?

[Frosty]

What's up with the "route diversion" that the route map shows on the website?

From what I can see, it's the same route as 2014.

 

edit: that diversion, if I recall from 2014 was for the back markers that don't make the cut-off in time. They need to have the M1 open at a certain time.

[Rob22]

Your calculations for the first half are about 5-8 minutes faster for the Elites, VA and AL through the points on the table - this is compared to the data I was able to pull from the actual rides last year). It means people wanting a good time are having to ride faster than they're capable of in the first half and probably hit the wall as a result.

 

For a 2:22 - 2:30 (most of the racing groups)

• Heartbreak Hill shows 17-18 minutes, but the fastest times through there was closer to 25 mins (Elite).
• M1 @ Marlboro (41-43 vs 48 mins) 
• St Johns School (0:59 - 1:03 vs 1:08)

 

I haven't look at the rest yet.

 

Below are the forecast splits against 2014 actual data for 4 groups (Elite, 2:30, 2:45 and 3:00). It shows the time at each point, with the percentage difference, i.e % faster than actual.

 

As you can see, the groups are slower in the begin, compared to the finish.

IMO, someone using your split calculator to try break a certain time will think they are behind schedule, push on a bit and... (1) finish faster than planned, or (2) hit the wall and limp home.

Hi

 

I have made some changes to this years calculator, which is closer to your times but still off in the early stages. Its difficult to get a calculator that will work for the Elites as well as the guys trying to do 4:30 or even 5:30. It is weighted towards the end as the slower groups fatigue easier and their times drop off as the distance increases.

 

I hope the changes I made work better.

Split_Time_Calculator_ For Web2015.zip

[davevdm]

Whats the rule on doing a second lap?

[Frosty]

Hi

 

I have made some changes to this years calculator, which is closer to your times but still off in the early stages. Its difficult to get a calculator that will work for the Elites as well as the guys trying to do 4:30 or even 5:30. It is weighted towards the end as the slower groups fatigue easier and their times drop off as the distance increases.

 

I hope the changes I made work better.

Your new version is probably closer to reality now. Well done.

 

The longer the time, the harder it becomes - as you mentioned, the fatigue sets in, and less organised groups are seen on the road. I reckon I could get reliable group data up to 3:30, maybe 3:45 at a push. Thereafter it's almost an individual effort.

 

 

[Wez-O]

Whats the rule on doing a second lap?

You have to push at least 5 girls up hills!

[Frosty]

How have to push at least 5 girls up hills!

At the same time 

[Dexter-morgan]

Now say "push" in a Naas Botha acsent.........

[sirmoun10goat]

Your new version is probably closer to reality now. Well done.

 

The longer the time, the harder it becomes - as you mentioned, the fatigue sets in, and less organised groups are seen on the road. I reckon I could get reliable group data up to 3:30, maybe 3:45 at a push. Thereafter it's almost an individual effort.

 

 

this makes for an interesting read - I see the times of the sub 2:50 had the quickest time over the first 3 points, then matched the sub 2:45 groups and eventually fell away...lesson to be learnt here

[tombeej]

Guys, thanks very much for all the thought that has gone into these split time calculators, etc. I'm one of those who generally loves playing spreadsheets and calculations too, so great to see.

 

But I know that come race day, the only thing I'll be looking at is the back wheel of the guy in front of me, concentrating only on how much my lungs and legs are burning and if I'm burning too many matches or not, thinking about what others are doing around me, when to move up in the bunch, when I should take the next drink/gel, and trying to work out whether I'll survive the next hill or not.

 

I've had races where I've looked down at my Garmin for the first time maybe 10km from the finish line because I've been so focused on being in the race. In the recent D2D in JHB I looked down at my Garmin for the first time as I pressed the stop button when crossing the finish line.

 

I think the only time that worrying about split times, etc. in a bike race is in a TT situation. In road racing, it's the last thing on my mind .

[Frosty]

this makes for an interesting read - I see the times of the sub 2:50 had the quickest time over the first 3 points, then matched the sub 2:45 groups and eventually fell away...lesson to be learnt here

Are you looking at the split calculator uploaded by Rob22, or the one I uploaded?

 

Rob22's will be slightly quicker over the first half as his factors in fatigue for the later groups.

Mine was based on 2014 times by the Vet groups and groups A - D, so it's based on real time at each of the points on the route. That of course changes depending on group dynamics on the day.

 

I've used historical data at other races over the last couple years to help pace the group, filled with my fellow club members. Slow it down if they're going too fast too early or speed it up if they're falling behind schedule. It does require that everyone is capable of riding at a variable pace, i.e. dig deep when required.

If I get some more spare time this week, I'll update the 3:15 - 5:00 split times.

[hayleyearth]

this makes for an interesting read - I see the times of the sub 2:50 had the quickest time over the first 3 points, then matched the sub 2:45 groups and eventually fell away...lesson to be learnt here

 

This is my current problem. Learnt a good lesson at D2D. (Tried to hang onto the front bunch for the 1st 35km then I was done.)

 

I take 20km +- to warm up (my heart needs this to actually be at a slowish pace).

Then I suddenly get this "lets go" feeling.

Currently at then about the 80-85km mark I can feel fatigue kick in bad. (Hit a wall this past Sunday, but carried on slowly to 123km).

 

I don't come from a long history of riding distance (basically started 2 months ago after 3 years of max 30km relaxed outrides) and I can see that this is where that "know how/when" can come from.

[Baaisikilist]

This is my current problem. Learnt a good lesson at D2D. (Tried to hang onto the front bunch for the 1st 35km then I was done.)

 

I take 20km +- to warm up (my heart needs this to actually be at a slowish pace).

Then I suddenly get this "lets go" feeling.

Currently at then about the 80-85km mark I can feel fatigue kick in bad. (Hit a wall this past Sunday, but carried on slowly to 123km).

 

I don't come from a long history of riding distance (basically started 2 months ago after 3 years of max 30km relaxed outrides) and I can see that this is where that "know how/when" can come from.

Then, at the 78 odd Km mark, take a caffeinated GU (or whatever your preferred brand is) with a decent swig of water, and half of one of those bars you use.