New Zealand - The Good, The Bad and The Ugly.

[intern]

All I know for sure is that actuaries are going to be in great demand trying to work out how insurance premiums need to change.

 

Most science only happens in hindsight, once data is known and can be analysed. Science on the fly is never going to be that reliable, but it is still better than random guessing on the fly (typical Trump style).

 

And as I have mentioned before on this thread, there are going to be plenty of academic papers to be written in this field in the long term, and looking at actuarial death rates over a statistically meaningful time period will be one of them.   

 

Astute observation; someone else sent this to me: When ministers make statements about coronavirus policy they invariably say that they are “following the science". But cutting-edge science is messy and unclear, a contest of ideas arbitrated by facts, a process of conjecture and refutation. This is not new. Almost two centuries ago Thomas Huxley described “The great tragedy of science – the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact.”

[intern]

All that I was saying is that I think Interns comment that "everyone" is struggling is not correct. I know of a few that have had higher returns / revenue, I used the shares market as an indicator to where anyone can start to look at those companies.

 

I don't have the time nor do I think the hub will allow the character space on this thread to mention all including aspects to every side of what I'm referring to, hence me simplifying it here. I assumed for the ones that generally comment on everything as if they have "know how" of everything wouldn't need a full explanation.... Anyhow, I've been wrong before too.

 

And fair enough. Of course, I live in the regions, where near everyone is struggling. There's a chap two houses up who desperately needs an operation on his foot, or he will lose it (infection on the bone following a failed ankle fusion). The hospital is empty. Peter can't get his operation. He is going to lose his foot.

Another old ducky up the drag needs a new hip. She can barely get out of bed and is zorched on painkillers. No op for her.

Almost everyone with school aged kids is absolutely struggling to get some work done while trying to educate children at the same time. Both the work and the kids are being neglected.

Businesses are failing left right and centre. Tourism is huge where I live, it is gone and so are those businesses. While the boost of 'free cash' helped, it hasjust delayed and quite possibly will exacerbate the pain down the road. Basic economics, in a very literal sense (read the book of the same title by Thomas Sowell) tells us this.

Having said all that, I think it unfair to characterise my comments as being 'on everything as if I know everything'; I am knowledgeable and I make no apology for that. I also have an inquiring mind and don't often go with the flow. This too is something I pride myself on, though it continually gets me into trouble and quite often serves me pretty well. But, you know, no skin off my nose.

A good day to you, you famous person ;-)

[intern]

We are heading down south at the middle of June to go look at houses.

 

CHC is the favourite, but The lakes region is also a strong contender.

 

Bide your time WP; at least, that's what I would do.

In other news, my house is now on the market, a very real consequence of our current situation. No, I am not happy about it...

[intern]

Very good article here about the intransigent idiots like myself:

 

https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/12-05-2020/a-modest-defence-of-the-coronavirus-contrarians/

[Wayne Potgieter]

Bide your time WP; at least, that's what I would do.

In other news, my house is now on the market, a very real consequence of our current situation. No, I am not happy about it...

 

Yeah, will probably rent for another year to strike when the iron is hottest.

[intern]

Yeah, will probably rent for another year to strike when the iron is hottest.

 

Onya mate. Bit unfortunate that we find ourselves in a sort of zero sum environment where one person's gain must come at another's loss, but our duty as ever is to our families first.

Be a good time soon, too, to pick up a camper van or a boat if you're into that sort of thing. Jucy's fleet alone is over 4,000.

[GrahamS2]

All I know for sure is that actuaries are going to be in great demand trying to work out how insurance premiums need to change.

 

Most science only happens in hindsight, once data is known and can be analysed. Science on the fly is never going to be that reliable, but it is still better than random guessing on the fly (typical Trump style).

 

And as I have mentioned before on this thread, there are going to be plenty of academic papers to be written in this field in the long term, and looking at actuarial death rates over a statistically meaningful time period will be one of them.   

Funny enough I'm just getting involved in a project to collate and manage COVID-19 patient data, across multiple health systems and universities. It will be used to learn and predict better outcomes for patient management. With technologies like these in place an outbreak or pandemic can be far better managed on a global scale.

[GrahamS2]

Well said Dude.

 

Also, hindsight is 20/20. 

 

Easy for me to sit back at the end of this and argue what was right and wrong, but much harder to make those calls in the beginning.

 

Anyway, back to the original point of this thread...where are you going on holiday when this is all stable?

We're planning a 2 week jaunt around South island when the borders open up. 

[patham]

We're planning a 2 week jaunt around South island when the borders open up. 

 

At this rate there won't be much choice for an overseas jaunt.

[GrahamS2]

At this rate there won't be much choice for an overseas jaunt.

Precisely. Had a ski trip to Canada planned for Christmas, but that won't be happening...

[rad006]

Hi Guys

 

Well here is an update on what I am seeing in SA.

 

Just like Intern mentioned, people that need operations are not getting them.

I crashed on my MTB just in time as I managed to get my AC Joint operated on (Crashed Early Feb, before Lockdown). My surgeon, a family friend has not been allowed to operate at all. He has managed to see post op clients for a checkup but that's it. He says unless you have a life threatening issue, you will not be allowed to be operated on.

 

From a company perspective, I am seeing alot of Tax Payers losing their jobs. Some are getting pay cuts up to 50%. I mentioned Tax Payers as lets be honest, these are the people really keeping the economy alive, and without them where do you think grant money will come from.

 

Looting is on the increase but as always its being blamed on people are desperate for food. Well no, looting liquor shops is not due to being hungry. Speaking of which, the government is adamant that we still cannot buy booze. SAB contacted them saying they would have to destroy 400 million bottles of beer if they cannot transport it to depo's. NOT SELL, just Transport it. If not they would loose R150 Million and would have to retrench over 2000 staff members. That is 2000 Tax Payers!!!!

 

Illegal cigarette sales are flying at around R1000 a carton, and supposedly Dlamini Zuma is a benefactor, seems to me she is getting some tax free, untraceable money for her next election campaign.

 

So you tell me, how is a country meant to keep giving out free money (Grants, some have increased for the next 3 months) if you are not getting money in via taxes? Loans great, how do you pay them off???

 

Banks are only offering a 3 month payment loan/holiday, if you cannot find a job then what?

Oh and our Lockdown levels are stopping alot of people from actually doing any form of business and get caught traveling without a permit and hello fine or jail time...

 

I wish we could see the bigger picture here as someone is making alot of money and its not just the people selling PPE....

[Steven Knoetze (sk27)]

Hi Guys

 

Well here is an update on what I am seeing in SA.

 

Just like Intern mentioned, people that need operations are not getting them.

I crashed on my MTB just in time as I managed to get my AC Joint operated on (Crashed Early Feb, before Lockdown). My surgeon, a family friend has not been allowed to operate at all. He has managed to see post op clients for a checkup but that's it. He says unless you have a life threatening issue, you will not be allowed to be operated on.

 

From a company perspective, I am seeing alot of Tax Payers losing their jobs. Some are getting pay cuts up to 50%. I mentioned Tax Payers as lets be honest, these are the people really keeping the economy alive, and without them where do you think grant money will come from.

 

Looting is on the increase but as always its being blamed on people are desperate for food. Well no, looting liquor shops is not due to being hungry. Speaking of which, the government is adamant that we still cannot buy booze. SAB contacted them saying they would have to destroy 400 million bottles of beer if they cannot transport it to depo's. NOT SELL, just Transport it. If not they would loose R150 Million and would have to retrench over 2000 staff members. That is 2000 Tax Payers!!!!

 

Illegal cigarette sales are flying at around R1000 a carton, and supposedly Dlamini Zuma is a benefactor, seems to me she is getting some tax free, untraceable money for her next election campaign.

 

So you tell me, how is a country meant to keep giving out free money (Grants, some have increased for the next 3 months) if you are not getting money in via taxes? Loans great, how do you pay them off???

 

Banks are only offering a 3 month payment loan/holiday, if you cannot find a job then what?

Oh and our Lockdown levels are stopping alot of people from actually doing any form of business and get caught traveling without a permit and hello fine or jail time...

 

I wish we could see the bigger picture here as someone is making alot of money and its not just the people selling PPE....

 

SAB did end up dumping the alchohol by the way. Iiterally money down the drain. All because of the prevention of transportation to storage which means the production facilities would exceed their legal holding capacity. Crazy!!!

 

I see similar problems in the USA though, to a degree, where milk, eggs and honey is being dumped due to disruptions in the supply chain.

[rad006]

SAB did end up dumping the alchohol by the way. Iiterally money down the drain. All because of the prevention of transportation to storage which means the production facilities would exceed their legal holding capacity. Crazy!!!

 

I see similar problems in the USA though, to a degree, where milk, eggs and honey is being dumped due to disruptions in the supply chain.

Just an update on the beer, apparently they have only dumped 25000 Litres at this point in time and have been granted permission. Lets see if this happens and how many trucks get looted...

[hayleyearth]

..........

 

 

Having said all that, I think it unfair to characterise my comments as being 'on everything as if I know everything'; I am knowledgeable and I make no apology for that. I also have an inquiring mind and don't often go with the flow. This too is something I pride myself on, though it continually gets me into trouble and quite often serves me pretty well. But, you know, no skin off my nose.

A good day to you, you famous person ;-)

Never really heard that someone calls themselves to be knowledgeable... That's usually something someone says of someone else as a good characteristics. Generally people with pure knowledge are quite humble too.

 

Opinionated vs knowledgeable.

[Wayne Potgieter]

 

 

Illegal cigarette sales are flying at around R1000 a carton, 

 

Holy ****

[patches]

So what does everyone have planned for the first weekend of Level 2?

On my end it's tradie time again. Dropping out ceilings. Installing new lighting and insulation.

 

Then I'm looking forward to an actual visit to Bunnings. None of this click n' collect nonsense! How am I supposed to make impulse purchases when I cant aimlessly wander the aisles. I'm a simple man.

 

Some small social events on the cards. Probably a braai with some friends that live in Long Bay (aka Whangarei South).

 

But yeah, not rushing to go out to restaurants, cafes, bars or malls.

How about you good folk?