New Zealand - The Good, The Bad and The Ugly.

[patches]

We had 2 already. Was just asking about possible other solutions or what other people might be using in the industry.

 

Oh awesome! Seeing as you already had them, they're the easiest and most effective solution. Very versatile!

 

The outcome looks great!

[arabsandals]

Here's some sober reading for us new New Zealanders:

 

Is virus elimination the worst policy decision ever?

New Zealand is embarked on a world-leading effort to “totally eradicate the virus”, while other countries have settled for containment or suppression or “flattening the curve”.

It is sobering that no other country has yet chosen to follow our lead. While the Prime Minister’s brave endeavour has attracted much international admiration, it may well prove to be the worst policy decision made by any Government in our history.

Eradication requires mind-boggling expenditure of both Government and private sector funds. It will precipitate a devastating economic recession and dole queues not seen since the Great Depression. It requires our borders to remain closed to the world indefinitely and thereby mandates the decimation of our tourism industry.

On a net basis, eradication will cost the lives of many New Zealanders:

 “When economies contract, life expectancy declines, due to, among other things, a rise in poverty, violent crime and suicide. During the global financial crisis of 2007– 09, the suicide rate in the United States increased by 4.8% according to the Center for Disease Control and in Europe by 6.5% according to the World Health Organisation. Philip Thomas, professor of risk management at Bristol University, has calculated that if the UK’s GDP falls by more than 6.4% per person as a result of the lockdown, more years of life will be lost than saved, using [the Imperial College] estimates.”

This quote is from the UK, where Covid deaths are running at 237 per million – a world away from Southern Hemisphere countries where average deaths to date are less than 5 per million. In the Eastern Hemisphere (New Zealand, Australia, Indonesia, Singapore, Taiwan, Japan) the average is only 2 per million. 

What is a QALY?

Most Government expenditure is directed to enlarging the quantity or quality of its citizens’ lives.

Although demand for healthcare may be almost infinite, no Government can spend all its resources in one sector. There are also strong and reasonable demands for welfare, policing, education, defence, housing, transport, justice, etc.

So how can all the necessary trade-offs be planned and allocated on a rational basis, rather than by impulse or by powerful people choosing ‘favourites’?

When a choice must be made between spending marginal dollars on either  (say) a life-saving traffic barrier or an additional Pharmac medicine, that decision-making process must be both objective and consistent. Similar choices arise in allocating limited healthcare funding as between physical health and mental health.  

Throughout most of the world, the solution to these dilemmas is to construct an artifice called a quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and to assign it a dollar value. This orthodox framework has guided the allocations in Government Budgets for many years.

For New Zealand, the best available QALY proxy is one year’s official estimate of national disposable income per capita – which was $52,500 for the 2019 calendar year. So, if a pending coronavirus epidemic would cost us (say) 100,000 QALYs, it would be defensible for the Government to spend up to $5.25 billion to stop that from happening.

If a Government was not prepared to spend that much on quarantines, it could be criticised for undervaluing human life. And if it spent more than that figure it would be just as bad – because we would be losing even more lives (ie quality-adjusted lives) in other areas than were being saved by the universal quarantine (Lockdown).

Unlimited spend

But has our Government been observing these important disciplines in the Corvid epidemic? Has its unprecedented splurge been proportionate or reckless?  Is it pursuing an expensive cure that will prove worse than the disease?

These are crucial questions that are being asked throughout the developed world. They are especially crucial in this country where the Government has debilitated the economy more than in any other country in the world. But they have not so far occupied much of the attention of the legacy media (or the Epidemic Response Committee) in New Zealand. 

It has been left to a think tank, the New Zealand Initiative, to enquire whether the Lockdown has been a provable over-reaction. Veteran economist Bryce Wilkinson inputs Covid morbidity and mortality data to the 2017 spreadsheet model constructed by five of New Zealand’s leading epidemiologists. His research note is brief and well worth reading in full.

As might be expected, the model’s assumptions have many caveats – and Dr Wilkinson clearly has reservations about the model itself. His purpose is “to begin an exploration of trade-offs, not to provide an authoritative valuation”. The key finding from his modelling:

“spending 6.1% of annual GDP might be justified if it saved the 33,600 Covid-19 deaths epidemiologists advised the Ministry of Health could result were the pandemic left “substantially uncontrolled.” Under the lower projection of 12,600 deaths, spending more than 3.7% of annual GDP could be excessive, even if success was assured. “

So, even if the Government was quite sure it could prevent as many as 12,600 deaths from an uncontrolled epidemic, it would not be able to justify spending $11.47 billion (3.7% of $310 billion) to achieve that.

This finding is a bit of a shock. The Government’s wage subsidy alone might exceed $12 billion  and that is just one of a string of expensive initiatives that have been announced. And there are more to come. Clearly, the Government has already way overspent on its efforts to save 12,600 lives.

Impressing the world

In March, the Minister of Health was advised by the model’s authors that 6 modelled scenarios showed an uncontrolled Covid could claim between 7 and 14,400 lives.

The Government did not recognise that the most vulnerable lives (over 70s) have few QALYs left. It did not check the absurd assumptions behind the figures. It apparently preferred the worst case scenario over the most likely scenario – which was close to the 12,600 lives considered by Dr Wilkinson.

Whether the modelling was right or wrong, that formal advice provided Ministers with a clear benchmark of about $12 millionas the upper bound of the range of spending that could be justified. But then the Cabinet took a political decision to zoom right through that benchmark and spend far more.  Suddenly, money was no object. Nor was the Bill of Rights.

How did this happen? If the level and duration of coerced restrictions was not based on a careful balancing of QALYs, then what was its basis? Was it perhaps to extend the crisis out towards the September election?  We simply don’t know.

There was clearly a certain glamour in New Zealand “going where no country had gone before” and being the very first country to totally eliminate a coronavirus. The Prime Minister is well skilled in the politics of drama and the lure of global affirmation.

Did the recurring opportunity for world leadership have a certain ring to it?  Was it the draw of political theatre and the opportunity to stride the world stage?  Perhaps the Prime Minister glimpsed “her nuclear-free moment” yet again?

OMG. This again. Ardern is leading the charge globally. On track to sew up a pandemic that has felled just about every other economy. In the space of a couple of months. The economic windfalls are going to be enormous. NZ will be the only developed economy which will be operating largely normally. Everyone else will have COVID drag. Thank your lucky stars you have a leader that actually has some balls and leads using actual expert advice.

[patches]

The good...

Bunnings and Mitre 10 are back to normal...ish!

Whilst I cannot yet wander the aisles aimlessly, daydreaming of all the DIY projects I want to start (and possibly not finish  ), that magical day will return once more.

 

Until then I have to resort to web-window shopping and click & collects/deliveries.

Speaking of which, Mitre10 was on the ball and opened up pre-orders before the move to Level 3. I placed my pre-order for gib, timber, etc and they delivered before midday yesterday. Great service from Mitre10!

Now just to try avoid becoming an ACC statistic   

[intern]

OMG. This again. Ardern is leading the charge globally. On track to sew up a pandemic that has felled just about every other economy. In the space of a couple of months. The economic windfalls are going to be enormous. NZ will be the only developed economy which will be operating largely normally. Everyone else will have COVID drag. Thank your lucky stars you have a leader that actually has some balls and leads using actual expert advice.

Don't be so dismissive of critical thought at a time when it has never been more important. Ardern has never been much of a leader, in opposition nor in government.

It is easy to destroy, it is far harder to build. The economic windfalls? We shall see about that. Our economy IS destroyed ALREADY and the after effects of closing down our economy for a disease that more than 99 percent of those infected will survive, will only be seen in the next 6 to 12 months and more.

Remember, when you take 'expert advice', it is best to take advice not only from those who tell you what you want to hear, but also from those who tell you what you don't want to hear.

[intern]

The good...

 

Bunnings and Mitre 10 are back to normal...ish!

 

Whilst I cannot yet wander the aisles aimlessly, daydreaming of all the DIY projects I want to start (and possibly not finish  ), that magical day will return once more.

 

Until then I have to resort to web-window shopping and click & collects/deliveries.

 

Speaking of which, Mitre10 was on the ball and opened up pre-orders before the move to Level 3. I placed my pre-order for gib, timber, etc and they delivered before midday yesterday. Great service from Mitre10!

 

Now just to try avoid becoming an ACC statistic   

Go to Bunnings for the prices, to Mitre10 for the service...

[IceCreamMan]

Don't be so dismissive of critical thought at a time when it has never been more important. Ardern has never been much of a leader, in opposition nor in government.

It is easy to destroy, it is far harder to build. The economic windfalls? We shall see about that. Our economy IS destroyed ALREADY and the after effects of closing down our economy for a disease that more than 99 percent of those infected will survive, will only be seen in the next 6 to 12 months and more.

Remember, when you take 'expert advice', it is best to take advice not only from those who tell you what you want to hear, but also from those who tell you what you don't want to hear.

Tend to agree. Effects of these measures and decisions made will only be understood in the course of time.

 

In effect, we have exchanged the future of the young for that of the old. Nothing happens without consequences.

 

But she is prettier than merkel. I think her party will do better in the next election. Possibly an outright victory too

Edited April 28, 2020 by IceCreamMan

[intern]

Tend to agree. Effects of these measures and decisions made will only be understood in the course of time.

 

In effect, we have exchanged the future of the young for that of the old. Nothing happens without consequences.

 

But she is prettier than merkel. I think her party will do better in the next election. Possibly an outright victory too

 

The election may be too far away for Labour to win. The warm post coital glow of 'beating' something which may not have needed all that much of a whipping in the first place will likely give way to the cold hard reality of mass unemployment, plummeting house prices and advancing inflation. As you so rightly say, no effect without side effect.

Some are saying 'it's the economy AND health, stupid'. But when it comes down to brass tacks, it's JUST the economy, stupid.

[patches]

Just got an internal staff email on our DHB's updated Covid-19 screening tool.

 

In the email it states:
 

"The new changes to the screening tool highlight that with the current extremely low rate of COVID-19, patients who are screened as having NO symptom or contact risks, have an extremely low risk of COVID-19.  Currently much less than a one in one hundred thousand chance."

[intern]

Just got an internal staff email on our DHB's updated Covid-19 screening tool.

 

In the email it states:

 

"The new changes to the screening tool highlight that with the current extremely low rate of COVID-19, patients who are screened as having NO symptom or contact risks, have an extremely low risk of COVID-19.  Currently much less than a one in one hundred thousand chance."

 

Better odds than winning the lottery I suppose, even if the outcome is probably gonna be worse.

 

Another thing, will be interesting to see how saved we are when our flu season arrives and the cupboard is bare.

[GrahamS2]

OMG. This again. Ardern is leading the charge globally. On track to sew up a pandemic that has felled just about every other economy. In the space of a couple of months. The economic windfalls are going to be enormous. NZ will be the only developed economy which will be operating largely normally. Everyone else will have COVID drag. Thank your lucky stars you have a leader that actually has some balls and leads using actual expert advice.

How is that going to work? The NZ economy is hugely dependent on interaction with other countries, who will not exactly be open for business. Nevermind the 200,000-odd tourism based jobs lost that are simply not possible to rehire since they can't afford the risk of tourists for a  long, long time.

[patham]

How is that going to work? The NZ economy is hugely dependent on interaction with other countries, who will not exactly be open for business. Nevermind the 200,000-odd tourism based jobs lost that are simply not possible to rehire since they can't afford the risk of tourists for a  long, long time.

 

The real reason why Jacinda wants to have a special open borders relationship with fellow low count numbers Australia as soon as possible is that she hopes like hell every single Aussie will holiday in Queenstown, seeing as they can't head to Bali.

 

Australia has a economy that is far from balanced, and quick googilism shows tourism is about 3% of GDP and 8% of export values. I see NZ gets about 6% of GDP from tourism and comprises a value of  20% of exports.

 

So NZ needs Australia for tourists a lot more than the other way around.  But either way, our balance of payments for both of us is messed up by this. Don't expect currency strengthening any time soon. 

[Wayne Potgieter]

So...on the subject of Bali....

 

I was recently awarded with a prestigious prize from one of my vendors and the prize was an all expense paid trip for me and the MRS to Bali. 5 star all the way. Also was awarded a separate trip to Las Vegas.

 

I had booked a family getaway to Queenstown and another to go house hunting in Christchurch.

 

Whilst I am glad that my family is safe and relatively unscathed by covid - all of these trips have been cancelled.

 

I love travelling more than most things, so I am a little annoyed by all of this. 

 

Just venting.

[DJR]

............ was awarded a separate trip to Las Vegas.............

You dodged a bullet Wayne.

[IceCreamMan]

Just got an internal staff email on our DHB's updated Covid-19 screening tool.

 

In the email it states:

 

"The new changes to the screening tool highlight that with the current extremely low rate of COVID-19, patients who are screened as having NO symptom or contact risks, have an extremely low risk of COVID-19.  Currently much less than a one in one hundred thousand chance."

 

Should read "and" contact risks . 

 

The sentence in isolation is a little confusing, 

[IceCreamMan]

The election may be too far away for Labour to win. The warm post coital glow of 'beating' something which may not have needed all that much of a whipping in the first place will likely give way to the cold hard reality of mass unemployment, plummeting house prices and advancing inflation. As you so rightly say, no effect without side effect.

Some are saying 'it's the economy AND health, stupid'. But when it comes down to brass tacks, it's JUST the economy, stupid.

 

She is getting great kudos for her handling of this issue at the minute. I guess time will tell. NZ due to its location and relative isolation makes it a lot easier to lock down. 

 

Lots of resilient saffas in NZ to assist the rebuild. 

[intern]

So...on the subject of Bali....

 

I was recently awarded with a prestigious prize from one of my vendors and the prize was an all expense paid trip for me and the MRS to Bali. 5 star all the way. Also was awarded a separate trip to Las Vegas.

 

I had booked a family getaway to Queenstown and another to go house hunting in Christchurch.

 

Whilst I am glad that my family is safe and relatively unscathed by covid - all of these trips have been cancelled.

 

I love travelling more than most things, so I am a little annoyed by all of this. 

 

Just venting.

 

 

I 'Liked this' reluctantly. This is the start of the effects we are all going to see. And our learned friend GrahamS2 puts his finger on it too - NZ is not going to be a Covid19-free destination, because that is incompatible with remaining Covid19-free.

 

Believe me, we are in deeeeeep poopie and the pain is only starting to become apparent to the complaint masses. I was talking with a neighbour yesterday who was telling me how miserable NZ was after 2008 (because international tourism took a big knock then). Right now, 2008 is looking like a freakin birthday present compared to what's coming. Everything you own (especially property but also cars, bikes and boats, etc) will be worth a lot less and you might find yourself with lower income and far greater debt. If, that is, you're among the fortunate still in work. If you're less fortunate, things are looking bleak.

 

By the way, who around here reckons 'buy local' is a good idea? Because if you do, I have some more bad news for you...