JSE Investing

[sawystertrance]

As does:

 

If it can halve today, it can halve again tomorrow.

Haha. Selling tomorrow is not spending time in the market.

 

And it just means you have to stay in four times as long..

Edited March 19, 2020 by sawystertrance

[Chris_]

I was wondering..

 

Is it possible that we may be saved from a downgrade by Moody's because of consideration given to the Covid outbreak?

 

I've been wondering the same. The whole worlds stats are in the toilet so could we skate by?

 

But, the tide is rising for everyone so perhaps covid can be slightly discounted? 

 

At the very least the virus is going to exacerbate inefficiencies and cracks in weak policy so they need to be on their game. Once all the reserve banks have done their bit are we still relatively equally 'investable'? I doubt it.

[Jakkals.]

Holy crap .... when to buy Capitec?????

dont go throw your every cent at it.

 

guys, what seems like bargains might be trash and started overvalued. let the storm settle and invest wisely. chip away every month. like any other month. 

[Chris_]

Capitecs customer base will be hit hard - as will we all, but theirs especially relative to other banks. First to be fired, last to be rehired.

 

I cannot see a situation where their bad debts don't become out of control. 

 

I hope I'm wrong, its a super slick operation, but I'm very weary of this one.

[Craai]

Capitecs customer base will be hit hard - as will we all, but theirs especially relative to other banks. First to be fired, last to be rehired.

 

I cannot see a situation where their bad debts don't become out of control. 

 

I hope I'm wrong, its a super slick operation, but I'm very weary of this one.

 

African Bank V 2.0 (Although not half as dodgy)

[Carmichael]

Jip think Capitec is in a world of hurt,and hurting PSG as well. So now, what do they do? Does PSG keep Curro or drop Curro and invest in Capitec? 

[mon-goose]

my pension is down 20% in the last week

[sawystertrance]

Can anybody explain to me why the Gold mines are down? Is it related to gearing?

[Chris_]

Can anybody explain to me why the Gold mines are down? Is it related to gearing?

 

We saw the USD gold price get smoked over the last while. Theres no such thing as a safe haven when selling is this panicked. Selling becomes across all sectors and into cash regardless. I think a lot of the decline was this.

 

The ZAR gold price has obviously held up better, it did though still take a small knock, but I think a lot more of our mines are reporting in USD so this doens't help as much anymore.

 

I think it also comes down to production. Mines cannot continue to operate as usual with the human movement restrictions coming in.

 

I'm largely invested in gold now and have also been scratching my head. Theres a baby bounce this morning which helps the nerves a little...

 

edit: i don't have gearing or in-depth info anymore so you may well be right.

Edited March 20, 2020 by CBlake

[Chris_]

Another reason which people will struggle to find info on, or none at all - is derivatives. There are a lot of protection strategies out there, so when things get moving like we've just had, theres a world of exponential pain in the background compounding the moves.

[sawystertrance]

I still don't get it and thought gold was always a safe refuge, especially in times of panic.

 

Only fact I have is that Sibanye has a revolving credit facility of, I think, R7.5 Bn. So perhaps with the Rand tanked it is a bigger load to bear..

 

I did find this:

"Traders were “exiting everything which is giving them profit,” said Chintan Karnani, chief market analyst at Insignia Consultants, with a technical selloff triggered when gold fell below $1,500."

 

And this:

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-golds-plunge-proves-its-a-safe-haven-asset-2020-03-12?mod=article_inline

 

But generally you are correct - there was a flight to cash.

[bertusras]

My personal investments (all with Allan Gray through various funds) are down about 7.5% since the beginning of the month, which doesn't seem too bad, but it's a lot of actual value gone almost overnight.

 

My pension and preservation funds at Discovery however are down about 20% on the contributed amounts. Which is scary.

[sawystertrance]

My AG Orbis fund is down, I think, about 17%. Ouch.

[Chris_]

I still don't get it and thought gold was always a safe refuge, especially in times of panic.

 

Only fact I have is that Sibanye has a revolving credit facility of, I think, R7.5 Bn. So perhaps with the Rand tanked it is a bigger load to bear..

 

I did find this:

"Traders were “exiting everything which is giving them profit,” said Chintan Karnani, chief market analyst at Insignia Consultants, with a technical selloff triggered when gold fell below $1,500."

 

And this:

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-golds-plunge-proves-its-a-safe-haven-asset-2020-03-12?mod=article_inline

 

But generally you are correct - there was a flight to cash.

 

Ja, similar to that article; one of the things I read about why gold first started falling was people selling it to fund their other losing positions.

[Captain Fastbastard Mayhem]

My personal investments (all with Allan Gray through various funds) are down about 7.5% since the beginning of the month, which doesn't seem too bad, but it's a lot of actual value gone almost overnight.

 

My pension and preservation funds at Discovery however are down about 20% on the contributed amounts. Which is scary.

Yeah, and there's nothing we can do about it at the moment. Selling now would be suicide!

 

Only way out is with clever decisions, there are a couple of funds which are positioned well for this (those funds that have flexible mandates and can switch their entire holding to cash) and that's what we're looking for at the moment. 

 

And then of course the trading of shares as well. I don't do that, though... 

Edited March 20, 2020 by Captain Fastbastard Mayhem

[sawystertrance]

"can switch their entire portfolio to cash".

 

Doesn't that trigger a CGT event?