Cyclists with a "Running" Problem

[Paddaman]

Paddaman - what is your Comrades finishing time?

This question is like asking a doctor what terminal disease he has,

or a lawyer for his criminal record.

Having run comrades does not somehow give you great insights into mathematics or statistics,

just like suffering from cancer suddenly makes you a medical expert, or being convicted of a crime suddenly makes you a legal expert.

 

The focus is on incentivizing runners to run comrades faster, or to decentivizing "unsuitable entries" from entering at all.  If Comrades is over subscribed, and there are genuine health concerns for runners that are back of the pack runners, then one solution is to tighten up the cut off time from 12 hours to 11 hours (which in some people's argument will then disqualify about half the field) or to tighten up the qualification times and thus exclude many of the runners that would have finished in the last hour (or at least incentivize them to train harder).

 

The other option is to use the power of economics to reward the serious runner and "tax" the not so serious runner, by introducing a sliding scale on the entry fee.  I suggested two possible solutions (as a point of departure) one set on a linear scale based on qualification times (some have suggested that this should be exponential after 4:30), and another more laborious method which took a "passport/portfolio" approach which used big data analysis to determine whether the athlete was following a structured training plan and thereby rewarding the athlete with a preferential entry.  I am confident that big data analytics should be able to be reasonably accurate based on current technology.  (At the moment the only incentive to train harder is being able to start in an earlier batch, and this being based on a single data point (qualifying marathon seems a bit outdated).

 

As I have been able to run a 3:40 marathon (at the tender age of 45)(I also finished a number of other ultra trail runs in the interim), after one year of returning to running (I was unable to run a 5km in under 30 min when I started out), I do not see an 4 hour marathon as unattainable for someone who follows a structured programme such as Tim Noakes's 40 week programme or Norrie Williamson's 26 week programme.

[Mats]

Everyone on this thread is capable of a 4:30 qualifying time

 

I would love for this to be true.

[Pieter-za]

Let's take a step back - what is wrong with the current (QF) system and cut-off time, in general? 

 

Is the current DNF's & Medical cases a material issue?

[Jackes]

FWIW: I do not have a 4:15 qualifying time under my name, but I do have a 11:38 and a 10:53 finishing time...

[Andrew Steer]

I would love for this to be true.

Soon enough

[Pieter-za]

Does anyone have stats? Im sure a 4h15 or even 4h30 qualifier would exclude way more than half of Comrades runners.

Stats for the 2017 Comrades.  

[Paddaman]

Let's take a step back - what is wrong with the current (QF) system and cut-off time, in general? 

 

Is the current DNF's & Medical cases a material issue?

I agree that the Comrades Association should indicate why it wants to review the entry system.  It is always good to know the full extent of the problem definition before one starts on working out possible solutions.

[Andrew Steer]

There's nothing linear about qualifying times versus Comrades runs, or amounts of training versus times. We also all live very different lives and have different goals, motivations, available training time etc etc There is nothing wrong with just aiming to finish Comrades. As a friend of mines physio pointed out to him, even if you feel like you're not hitting your straps with your training and reaching your potential, the simple fact you are a Comrades runner puts you among the top 0.5% fittest people in the world.

 

The current systems works pretty darn well I reckon, I've got a friend who scrapes qualifying but finishes under 11, I've got mates who go under 4hours in qualifying but scrape a finish at Comrades. 

Much of the beauty of the race lies at the back, the people defying odds, going deep, discovering things about themselves they never knew, and pushing themselves to do something they never dreamed possible. I agree that the race can't really expand it's capacity much, but I also don't get this idea that lesser mortals should pushed aside...

For me, it's the Ultimate human race, because everybody can achieve it, just very few have the courage to do so.

[Stretch]

Stats for the 2017 Comrades.

That says it all.. More than half of those qualifying outside of 4:30 didn't finish in 12 hours.

[Stretch]

I would love for this to be true.

You are more than capable of this... You're primary sport is cycling at the moment. If you dedicated a year to a 4:30 marathon with less cycling you would do it

[Pieter-za]

That says it all.. More than half of those qualifying outside of 4:30 didn't finish in 12 hours.

​Correct, especially H has got a ~50% chance of finishing.  (What is wrong with that?  Many of them were probably caught at cut-off points in any case.)

 

Why are you deciding for them how they should be treated?

Edited August 28, 2018 by Pieter-za

[Paddaman]

Stats for the 2017 Comrades.  

So a 4:30 cut off would exclude the G and H group, which is where the DNF's grow almost exponentially.  So maybe the idea of using a sliding entry fee for after 4:30 may incentivize these athletes to seriously consider there commitment to the entry or to start to serious review their training methodology.  Obviously there are those in the group that will deserve a bronze, but they are more of an outlier than a mainstream issue.  These runners could then "use" their bronze to "move up" the starting order the following year.   (much like Argus uses the previous years Argus results to determine race seedings).

 

It is interesting that the Vic Clapman medal only really starts to come into consideration in group D which is incidentally the sub 4hr batch.

[dave303e]

ok so on a more exciting front!!!

 

UTMB

 

We get to see Killian Jornet vs Jim Walmsley head to head this weekend, I reckon these lads are going to turn themselves inside out trying to beat each other...

 

I think Walmsley has the pure speed at that distance but Jornet will be stronger in the mountains and all that matters is that this is going to be good to follow!!!

[Chris_]

How can Killian possibly be ready to race after just crushing Kima?!

 

Dudes a real freak.

 

I can't wait

[Stretch]

​Correct, especially H has got a ~50% chance of finishing. (What is wrong with that? Many of them were probably caught at cut-off points in any case.)

 

Why are you deciding for them how they should be treated?

I might add a disclaimer that I do not like the Vic Clapham. It was introduced in the year 2000 (I believe) to get numbers. Do I frown upon those that achieve the vc? Absolutely not...I respect anyone that committees themselves to running this race... But...I also think the addition of the vc has allowed sub 11hr runners to complacently accept the VC. On the flip side.. My brother law of almost 30 comrades used to always say he wouldn't consider a VC finish as a finish in his books .. But he got one in 2016 and 2017 and he was very pleased with it regardless....but....he also upped his training this year and in 2018 he was back on the bronze train..by a solid hour compared to his 2017 time...so food for thought too. I have also said before..as a compromise... It should be considered a finish...but sans a medal......

 

I mean no disrespect to anyone on this thread... That's just my personal opinion of the VC. I would be interested to hear opinion from those who are in that 11 to 12 hour band...if the cutoff was 11... Would you still be entering or would you be changing your training regime?

[Raab]

ok so on a more exciting front!!!

 

UTMB

 

We get to see Killian Jornet vs Jim Walmsley head to head this weekend, I reckon these lads are going to turn themselves inside out trying to beat each other...

 

I think Walmsley has the pure speed at that distance but Jornet will be stronger in the mountains and all that matters is that this is going to be good to follow!!!

 

ok so on a more exciting front!!!

 

UTMB

 

We get to see Killian Jornet vs Jim Walmsley head to head this weekend, I reckon these lads are going to turn themselves inside out trying to beat each other...

 

I think Walmsley has the pure speed at that distance but Jornet will be stronger in the mountains and all that matters is that this is going to be good to follow!!!

 

Its going to be beautifully brutal to watch