Coronavirus lockdown and exercising outdoors

[Gen]

I would be all for opening up places like Northern Cape, North West and Limpopo, but I don't know how much it will help them if the Metro's remain locked down... At least they will feel a bit better.

We would definitely feel better [emoji1787]

 

I do however suspect NW will see a rise in cases now.. they are actively testing all the mine employees returning to work...and there are a lot.[emoji52]

[DieselnDust]

My theory:

All provinces to drop to level 3, except for the WC, they stay on Level 4...?

 

 

Possibly but on what basis?

 

3770 cases and 72 deaths?

 

That's just a snap shot in time. We don't know how the other provinces will play out. We do know that WC will peak before the rest. I guess what will drive the decision is how many care beds are available. If WC can get set up for the extra beds then I can't see how we'll be held back. We may stay at Level 3 for a while longer than the rest of the country.

We don't know how many will die from the virus but the smart peeps have calculated how many will die of hunger and lack of access to medical care.

 

Lets see what he has to say tonight. Positive thoughts positive thoughts

[DieselnDust]

I personally hope so, but I don't think it would be the "right" decision at this point. I would personally have argued for another week of L4, with the proviso that it would be extended if people don't adhere to the guidelines. I could very well be wrong, though. 

 

Risk / reward. You show us that you who can adhere, do adhere, and we will scale it back. 

 

 

 

I don't know why you think these levels are compliance driven. It's not. Its driven by preparedness against the case numbers. and then the risk.

At the moment the WC hotspots are Mitchells Plain, Khayalitsha, Western City (Atlantic Seaboard and Tygerberg. Basically CoCT. Outlying areas are shoing fewer cases but the economy is CoCT. So can't open wine exports if the supply chain is shut down.

Level 3 is all about supply chains. Its not about abiding by the rules and receiving rewards for that. Its about Economic activity and the risks associated with that VS how many people could die.

[Captain Fastbastard Mayhem]

I don't know why you think these levels are compliance driven. It's not. Its driven by preparedness against the case numbers. and then the risk.

At the moment the WC hotspots are Mitchells Plain, Khayalitsha, Western City (Atlantic Seaboard and Tygerberg. Basically CoCT. Outlying areas are shoing fewer cases but the economy is CoCT. So can't open wine exports if the supply chain is shut down.

Level 3 is all about supply chains. Its not about abiding by the rules and receiving rewards for that. Its about Economic activity and the risks associated with that VS how many people could die.

I know the levels are mostly data-driven, but actual compliance to those guidelines must enter the fray at some point, as it's also part of the data (has a direct effect on the R0) If we don't adhere to the L4 guidelines, what makes us think we'll adhere to the L3 guidelines? Or, at least, if they are dropped, I think there would be an increase in police & military presence to ensure adherence to those guidelines.  

 

Basically, I think that there is far more chance of a step to L3 after we've shown to be responsible citizens and petition while adhering, than if we disobey and rail against, then petition. 

[Chris_]

....

 

Surreal the Pressie addressing the nation tonight at 20h30 for 22h00

 

where did you see this?

[Gen]

Possibly but on what basis?

 

3770 cases and 72 deaths?

 

That's just a snap shot in time. We don't know how the other provinces will play out. We do know that WC will peak before the rest. I guess what will drive the decision is how many care beds are available. If WC can get set up for the extra beds then I can't see how we'll be held back. We may stay at Level 3 for a while longer than the rest of the country.

We don't know how many will die from the virus but the smart peeps have calculated how many will die of hunger and lack of access to medical care.

 

Lets see what he has to say tonight. Positive thoughts positive thoughts

The level of LD is determined on the capability of each province to treat the infected (that document released a few weeks ago explainedthat quite well).. that's why hospitalisation and numbers of critical patients are important.

[Captain Fastbastard Mayhem]

where did you see this?

I saw it on WA (linked to a previous address on Youtube on the SABC News channel) but decided not to share it, because I couldn't confirm it. 

[Gen]

I saw it on WA (linked to a previous address on Youtube on the SABC News channel) but decided not to share it, because I couldn't confirm it.

So until gov confirms .. we wait.. But the president usually addresses on a Thursday..so it could be a possibility...

[Vetplant]

I saw it on WA (linked to a previous address on Youtube on the SABC News channel) but decided not to share it, because I couldn't confirm it. 

It's doing the rounds on my WA as well, might as well share it here.

 

DISCLAIMER: THIS HAS NOT BEEN VERIFIED YET

 

Edit:Removed the picture as it seems to be Fake News, apologies.

[KnavishStream]

Inother breaking news Level 3 here we come

Surreal the Pressie addressing the nation tonight at 20h30 for 22h00

Where did you get this info from!? 

 

**EDIT - I happened to miss the above - Nevermind!

[Cookie88]

At the start of all of this I was all for battening down the hatches and locking down, but seeing two friends retrenched, several facing significant salary cuts and on top of that, the many many hungry, less fortunate people when I do groceries my feeling is that the sooner the economy can kick into the next gear the better...

[NGM]

Possibly but on what basis?

 

3770 cases and 72 deaths?

 

That's just a snap shot in time. We don't know how the other provinces will play out. We do know that WC will peak before the rest. I guess what will drive the decision is how many care beds are available. If WC can get set up for the extra beds then I can't see how we'll be held back. We may stay at Level 3 for a while longer than the rest of the country.

We don't know how many will die from the virus but the smart peeps have calculated how many will die of hunger and lack of access to medical care.

 

Lets see what he has to say tonight. Positive thoughts positive thoughts

The WC having the highest infection rate probably indicates that local government are testing for it very more effectively than other provinces, not that there are more infections. It's like when there's a general election and the DA looks really strong for the first 24 hours during the live vote count, but after 48 hours when all the votes are in it's back to normal. The Western Cape municipalities tend to operate more efficiently so get all their votes (or infections) counted first. I'm not rooting for my province or anything, it's not even my province, I just live here.

 

Anyway, I suspect being punished with "level 4" would be like being punished for doing your job too well.

[Jako De Wet]

pretty sure that is fake news, don't see anything on the official twitter feed?

[Vetplant]

pretty sure that is fake news, don't see anything on the official twitter feed?

Think you are right... EWN are quite on the ball with their notifications that an announcement is coming up, but they have been dead quiet.

 

I'll delete the pic from my post just to be on the safe side.

[DieselnDust]

I know the levels are mostly data-driven, but actual compliance to those guidelines must enter the fray at some point, as it's also part of the data (has a direct effect on the R0) If we don't adhere to the L4 guidelines, what makes us think we'll adhere to the L3 guidelines? Or, at least, if they are dropped, I think there would be an increase in police & military presence to ensure adherence to those guidelines.  

 

Basically, I think that there is far more chance of a step to L3 after we've shown to be responsible citizens and petition while adhering, than if we disobey and rail against, then petition. 

 

I know the levels are mostly data-driven, but actual compliance to those guidelines must enter the fray at some point, as it's also part of the data (has a direct effect on the R0) If we don't adhere to the L4 guidelines, what makes us think we'll adhere to the L3 guidelines? Or, at least, if they are dropped, I think there would be an increase in police & military presence to ensure adherence to those guidelines.  

 

Basically, I think that there is far more chance of a step to L3 after we've shown to be responsible citizens and petition while adhering, than if we disobey and rail against, then petition. 

 

OK i see where you're going and I agree that showing compliance goes a long way toward goodwill.but I'm going to disagree in terms of this being a metric to determine a decision. There is no measure for compliance. Social Media photos merely provide an insight but the acid test is whether non compliance in hot spot areas can be translated into rise in infection rate and then death rate. As we've seen The western Cape started slowly due to a lack of testing then caught up and surpassed the rest of the country as testing caught up. So I don't think a lot of overweight gits strolling down Sea Point Promenade on Day 1 of Level 4 is going to skew the data as those results will only be know by the end of week 3 of May 2020 if they were even tested post 1 May.

Surfers protesting, people on green belts not wearing masks, Cyclists riding 50km beyond their base are not creating hotspots. Every virologist and Epidemiologist agrees with that. a maybe its not lekker but what percentage of the population is committing these transgressions. Also that Belgian/US/UK study on runners spreading vapor was considered a poor study not indicative of the real world. to get the virus you need either kiss someone who it on the mouth long enough to exchange saliva, some one coughs on you directly, sneezes on you or you're indoors with a lot of sneezy peeps who have the virus or sit in the presense of someone infected in a confined space with poor air circulation. This is what the literature is talking too. Hence health care workers are high risk or office workers especially where there's aircon working, and confined indoor public spaces.

Health care workers are highly compliant yet high risk.

People working in open air spaces are less compliant but lower risk due to the fact that moving air disperses the virus, sunlight kills it and it needs a transport medium. So highly unlikely they will spread it wile working but then they get into a confined space to travel home.....

You also need to get a decent size dose of virus to become ill. One single virus or two is very likely going to be killed by your immune system unless you are immune compromised. This is not my field of study so I stand to be corrected by the more medically learned ones on this forum. Its just what I've taken away from everything I've read from reputable sources. There is a threshold to the number of particles you need to absorb to become infected.

 

So unless someone can show me a scorecard where compliance to regulations is scored against the medical and economic criteria I'm going to go with just those two (plus maybe a few more that are measurable) as the main criteria feeding the decision to what level the WC goes to next. Personally I cannot see that we won't go to 3.

If we  look at the USA after 52 days they hit the exponential growth rate. In fact their growth rate is still exponential its just less exponential than it was (don't listen to Trump's  daily evening campaign speech). SA is still way flatter than most countries at that point despite high population density in areas. LockDowns will not change that growth rate now. Social distancing, sanitising, masks in airconditioned spaces, and maintenance of healthy lifestyles is what is going to keep us from hitting US like figures.

 

What we must remember is that this thing must be respected. Its not a joke. Its a nasty nasty little ******. It attacks all organs. People are reporting to ER with stomach pains, abdominal pain, headaches, a few have died of stroke and tested positive. So you don't want to go out looking for it.

 

Sorry for the long winded post. Its just that we can't keep talking about compliance and being rewarded for it by a shift in levels. That's selling false hope as we can be comliant as heck and still be dealing with an epidemic that's out of control. We need to keep the hospital beds free. reduce loading on the emergency services (hence the no swimming and surfing, protest all you want, I agree protest, but there's a reason why you're not allowed to swim) etc. That's why i'm not fussed about people not  wearing masks outside while exercising. I ride alone, in the dark, I keep it that way. Don't all rush out at 6am and piss  on my parade now please.

 

Other thing is if peeps are not going to be compliant to regs or not follow the guidelines, cool. you're not killing anyone as far as you know. But godverdom please don't post pics all over InstaBookApprava. My neighbour is a cop and we had a socially distanced chat while out walking the dogs this morning - the cops are GATVOL of PETTY call ins.  "My neighbour was driving down the roa at 20h10 last night can you arrest him" "My neighbour is feeding the security guard..." that kind of k%k just pisses them off cos they have to get come out and deal with it. Don't be a 530d.

Hence the extreme actions being taken. They're peeps too. The Muizenberg family arrest due to toddler running onto the beach was an over reaction and appears will be dealt with but don't give these okes reasons to overreact. If they get frustrated with you, just nod and move on. I get it we're frustrated too but having a record against your name isn't worth it. Make your point politely and move on. If you're going to be  530d then be a stealthy one, matt black paint and wheels please.

[TNT1]

Holy crap, that's a long post.

 

I promise, I wont be the only one here that doesn't read it.