Wiggle/CRC future in doubt

[Iwan Kemp]

2 minutes ago, IceCreamMan said:

...
the bicycle manufacture industry is going nowhere. 
 

the article that kicked off this round of debate painted a picture of woe for the uK. Yet we bought 1.5 million bicycles here in the last year. The bicycle industry is dead, long live the bicycle industry. 

I'm certainly not saying it is dead or going anywhere. But that it is not healthy, and that many, many, many brands and very talented people will leave this industry is a fact. As many already have.

Buying 1.5 million bikes where no one makes money does not fit the world we live in. Still doesn't mean "the bicycle industry is dead", but between that and arguing that it is okay lies a VERY deep canyon. 

[Anthem24]

Off-topic, but I've been wondering what the ripple effect might be of the large tax bill and legal fees that Silverback, Omnico and Cytek have had after losing their appeal to SARS in the Supreme Court in October. Media summary here: https://www.supremecourtofappeal.org.za/images/SCA-128MS.pdf

and full judgement here:
https://www.supremecourtofappeal.org.za/index.php/component/jdownloads/send/48-judgment-2023/4093-silverback-technologies-cc-others-v-commissioner-south-african-revenue-service-301-2022-2023-zasca-128-09-october-2023?Itemid=0

[IceCreamMan]

4 hours ago, Iwan Kemp said:

I'm certainly not saying it is dead or going anywhere. But that it is not healthy, and that many, many, many brands and very talented people will leave this industry is a fact. As many already have.

Buying 1.5 million bikes where no one makes money does not fit the world we live in. Still doesn't mean "the bicycle industry is dead", but between that and arguing that it is okay lies a VERY deep canyon. 

Pun intended no doubt. 

[betaboy]

.. yet we still have okes that throw 120K at an Epic! 😂😂😂 some burn matches, others prefer paper.

The tipping point was when all brands decided to invest in the in-house bandwagon. Now this seemed like a promised cash cow for shareholders, turns out.. an industry rabbit hole. Instead of keeping the traditional approach of frame guys do frames, and parts guys provide the package. Brands started own in-house stems, BB’s, cranks, causing a huge shift for brands to suck up more market space. Hence the price jump on bicycles today. We are officially in Motorbike territory and no one’s blinking…. Only a few buying, so that’s the writing on the walls folks. Massive changes ahead for this segment of sport we call cycling which is more about heavy weight consumerism, balancing on a knife edge that’s unsustainable. Anyways my R1, on the subject. Due to inflation, my tens cents counts for sweet Jake all! 😅

[Iwan Kemp]

17 minutes ago, betaboy said:

.. yet we still have okes that throw 120K at an Epic! 😂😂😂 some burn matches, others prefer paper.

The tipping point was when all brands decided to invest in the in-house bandwagon. Now this seemed like a promised cash cow for shareholders, turns out.. an industry rabbit hole. Instead of keeping the traditional approach of frame guys do frames, and parts guys provide the package. Brands started own in-house stems, BB’s, cranks, causing a huge shift for brands to suck up more market space. Hence the price jump on bicycles today. We are officially in Motorbike territory and no one’s blinking…. Only a few buying, so that’s the writing on the walls folks. Massive changes ahead for this segment of sport we call cycling which is more about heavy weight consumerism, balancing on a knife edge that’s unsustainable. Anyways my R1, on the subject. Due to inflation, my tens cents counts for sweet Jake all! 😅

Not correct. In-house saves money on most if not all parts. 

[shaper]

Look forward to seeing a Giant in a Makro near you.... https://www.mtbr.com/threads/giant-bicycles-to-be-sold-at-some-dicks-sporting-goods-stores.1228475/

Desperate times, make for desperate measures, possibly at the expense of bike shops

https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2024/02/11/giant-agrees-sell-kids-and-mountain-bikes-dicks-specialty-stores

Edited February 12 by shaper

[betaboy]

2 minutes ago, Iwan Kemp said:

Not correct. In-house saves money on most if not all parts. 

I disagree… when it comes to tooling all the resources, it’s a long return on Investment, and it might seem cheaper at starting point but since specs change year on year, ROA lands up been a can each brand kicks down the road. 

[IceCreamMan]

11 minutes ago, shaper said:

Look forward to seeing a Giant in a Makro near you.... https://www.mtbr.com/threads/giant-bicycles-to-be-sold-at-some-dicks-sporting-goods-stores.1228475/

Desperate times, make for desperate measures, possibly at the expense of bike shops

https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2024/02/11/giant-agrees-sell-kids-and-mountain-bikes-dicks-specialty-stores

Well there’s a thought, giant dicks. 

[Headshot]

16 hours ago, Iwan Kemp said:

Not correct. In-house saves money on most if not all parts. 

Exactly and this is in fact how the moto world operates. You can have bling but at an extra cost otherwise its no name brand in house parts.

[Shebeen]

17 hours ago, Anthem24 said:

Off-topic, but I've been wondering what the ripple effect might be of the large tax bill and legal fees that Silverback, Omnico and Cytek have had after losing their appeal to SARS in the Supreme Court in October. Media summary here: https://www.supremecourtofappeal.org.za/images/SCA-128MS.pdf

and full judgement here:
https://www.supremecourtofappeal.org.za/index.php/component/jdownloads/send/48-judgment-2023/4093-silverback-technologies-cc-others-v-commissioner-south-african-revenue-service-301-2022-2023-zasca-128-09-october-2023?Itemid=0

spicy!

So basically silverback imported bikes (well, everything but the wheels), and said they weren't complete bikes so shouldn't attract the 15% duty? This is way back in 2015/16, (wheels of justice turn slowly).

 

A certain "mr Du Toit" expert witness for SARS said, those are bikes, k@k en betaal. Lots of semantics ensued, including whether Mr Du Toit actually knew what a bike was.

 

Going on this, 7 years of legal wrangling and interest for 15% of their imported bikes could be a lot of money, and could sink one or all of these operations. One can only guess whether they (and others ) still import bikes in parts to get around this. Omnico would be the biggest bill I guess, but probably the one with the biggest war chest. To answer your question, Silverback seem to have had all their thunder stolen by Titan i wouldn't be surprised to see them close up shop, would be a disappointing to see.

 

 

ps. putting duties on bikes is dumb. there is no real local industry to protect here, get the bikes in cheaper please

 

 

 

Edited February 13 by Shebeen

[Danger Dassie]

https://bikerentalmanager.com/rapid-growth-in-the-bike-rental-industry/

[IceCreamMan]

1 hour ago, Danger Dassie said:

https://bikerentalmanager.com/rapid-growth-in-the-bike-rental-industry/

Wow. That’s awesome. Not quite the latest Bluetooth 13 speed carbon fibre market so some will dismiss this.

however , seems this industry is in rude health. 

[IceCreamMan]

1 hour ago, Shebeen said:

spicy!

So basically silverback imported bikes (well, everything but the wheels), and said they weren't complete bikes so shouldn't attract the 15% duty? This is way back in 2015/16, (wheels of justice turn slowly).

 

A certain "mr Du Toit" expert witness for SARS said, those are bikes, k@k en betaal. Lots of semantics ensued, including whether Mr Du Toit actually knew what a bike was.

 

Going on this, 7 years of legal wrangling and interest for 15% of their imported bikes could be a lot of money, and could sink one or all of these operations. One can only guess whether they (and others ) still import bikes in parts to get around this. Omnico would be the biggest bill I guess, but probably the one with the biggest war chest. To answer your question, Silverback seem to have had all their thunder stolen by Titan i wouldn't be surprised to see them close up shop, would be a disappointing to see.

 

 

ps. putting duties on bikes is dumb. there is no real local industry to protect here, get the bikes in cheaper please

 

 

 

But should they lose and have to pay the 15 percent and declare insolvency some will believe they are vindicated. 

[Eldron]

[Eldron]

[Danger Dassie]

https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/shimano-crankset-recall-to-cost-dollar18million-company-reports

Snip .... "Shimano's report for 2023's financial year, which was published on Tuesday, revealed a year-on-year decline of 24.6% in revenue and a 52.3% drop in net profit.

Net sales decreased 29.5% from the previous year to JPY 364,679 million ($2.4 billion/£1.9 billion). 

“Although the booming popularity of bicycles cooled down, interest in bicycles continued to be high as a long-term trend,” the report reads. "On the other hand, market inventories generally remained high, despite ongoing supply and demand adjustments. 

"Overseas, in the European market, the strong interest in bicycles continued in our major market, namely, Germany and Benelux countries, and retail sales of completed bicycles were strong. On the other hand, in other countries, consumer demand waned on account of inflation and an economic slowdown, and market inventories remained at high levels."

Over-supply and under-demand tally with what Cycling Weekly has reported on the bike business in the UK, where a new report from the Bicycle Association this month said that it would take at least until 2025 for the British bike industry to correct itself.

Shimano expects further downward trends for 2024. It expects a further decrease in revenue by 10.8%, with the European market shouldering the biggest part of this decline; it also predicts a decrease in sales by 18% compared to last year.

Meanwhile, "retail sales of completed bicycles remained weak" in North America, partly "due to a reaction from the cycling boom". Net sales were down 22.5% between 2022 and 2023 in North America, but this covers all of Shimano's business, which also includes fishing tech."