ChrisF Posted January 9, 2024 Posted January 9, 2024 17 minutes ago, Dubber said: I don't disagree with any of the points here. But I do think, in the context of this discussion being on TheHub, my interpretation of 'the cycling industry' is different to yours. While I can't speak for everyone here, given the post is on a forum where the majority of readers would consider any bike with less than 21 gears and coil shock entry level, lumping mass produced commuters et al into the discussion is out of context (for the original discussion) imho. Not incorrect, but out of context... Anyway, no use flogging a dead horse... An observation from across the seas here in the USA (which you may or may not be seeing in UK/SA yet): The rise of the e-bike has been staggering over the last 12 months. I'd say, 50% of our neighborhood has at least 1 ebike in the household now compared to nothing 12 / 18 months ago. Parent's that would normally buy a $150 'scott' entry level MTB for their kids school commute are now buying $400/$500 no name ebikes. The rise has been exponential. Tying this back into the original thread: the vast majority of these bikes are no name brands sold on online retailers. Very few are typical 'big name' bike brands bought through your LBS. So yes, lots of $'s being spent on bikes, but little going to your typical LBS and even less going to the traditional bike bike brands. I have no idea actual margins on these bikes and may simply be a case of loss leaders and hoping to make money on replacement batteries? (Razor blade strategy)... See image attached - 1800+ sold in the last month just on these two versions. To re-iterate the point, yes, all these sales go into your 'cycling industry' stats. But again, I can't speak for everyone on the TheHub' but I doubt these would be on any Hub Member shopping list.... All about context I guess... My neighbour bought something like the Jetson (foldable e-bike) last month. He was looking for something that could fold up VERY small, to fit inside the camper. I was surprised just how many outlets there are in SA for these types of bikes !!! (no idea of the volumes...) The hardtail type e-commuter is certainly gaining popularity in SA. LOTS of adds for these all over, both at shops and on verious social media adds. Certainly a strong move away from the traditional bike shops, to alternate sources to buying bikes. As for the higher end e-bikes and full suspension e-bikes .... drastic increase in the numbers on our trails !! Even a Tesla charging station for ebikes at the Bloemendal trail head All that said, commuting by bicycle remains a very small segment in SA. The one thing I am (sadly) seeing a LOT of lately is these e-scateboard scooter things .... OFTEN used as commuting devices .... IN traffic, and on the roads (not on pavements). Well worth noting that most stats includes these things in "e-bike sales", thus it gets added to "bike sales" Would be interesting at the END of 2024 to see the REAL SALES STATS (not predictions). But with the splintering of the supply chains, I doubt we will see the real picture.
IceCreamMan Posted January 9, 2024 Posted January 9, 2024 42 minutes ago, Dubber said: I don't disagree with any of the points here. But I do think, in the context of this discussion being on TheHub, my interpretation of 'the cycling industry' is different to yours. While I can't speak for everyone here, given the post is on a forum where the majority of readers would consider any bike with less than 21 gears and coil shock entry level, lumping mass produced commuters et al into the discussion is out of context (for the original discussion) imho. Not incorrect, but out of context... Anyway, no use flogging a dead horse... An observation from across the seas here in the USA (which you may or may not be seeing in UK/SA yet): The rise of the e-bike has been staggering over the last 12 months. I'd say, 50% of our neighborhood has at least 1 ebike in the household now compared to nothing 12 / 18 months ago. Parent's that would normally buy a $150 'scott' entry level MTB for their kids school commute are now buying $400/$500 no name ebikes. The rise has been exponential. Tying this back into the original thread: the vast majority of these bikes are no name brands sold on online retailers. Very few are typical 'big name' bike brands bought through your LBS. So yes, lots of $'s being spent on bikes, but little going to your typical LBS and even less going to the traditional bike bike brands. I have no idea actual margins on these bikes and may simply be a case of loss leaders and hoping to make money on replacement batteries? (Razor blade strategy)... See image attached - 1800+ sold in the last month just on these two versions. To re-iterate the point, yes, all these sales go into your 'cycling industry' stats. But again, I can't speak for everyone on the TheHub' but I doubt these would be on any Hub Member shopping list.... All about context I guess... E-bikes big business here. Average age increasing, one in 4 over 60 years old. Reducing dependency on fossil fuel transport etc. my local Giant shop reckons e bikes is the jam of his business. The landscape is changing. I dare say the demographics of Hub members is changing too. I certainly take yr point regarding the cycling activities of the hub. BigDL and Zebra 2
Dubber Posted January 9, 2024 Posted January 9, 2024 1 hour ago, ChrisF said: The one thing I am (sadly) seeing a LOT of lately is these e-scateboard scooter things .... OFTEN used as commuting devices .... IN traffic, and on the roads (not on pavements). Those things are menace 😂. They all over the place here. Available as short term rentals all over the cities... A few of the school kids in our area also have them - and not the cheap 5 mph versions, the unlimited 30 mph versions (and the one wheelers)! It's going to end badly. Fortunately, most parents perceive the danger and are going with ebikes. Obviously any self propelled vehicle has inherit risks, but I think ebikes slightly less so? Maybe not. Ironically, the vast majority of parents that get their kids ebikes enforce the use of helmets and other protection, but those whose kids that get 'scooters' seldom seem to enforce helmets. 45 minutes ago, IceCreamMan said: E-bikes big business here. Average age increasing, one in 4 over 60 years old. Reducing dependency on fossil fuel transport etc.. Agreed! When I refer to my neighborhood, Id say it is predominately older - empty nesters or soon to be empty nesters. Most of these households hadn't bought a bike in the last 10 years no doubt. Either had an old clunker gathering dust in the garage or nothing at all. Now they all out buying ebikes. I don't think they using them as a commuter in most cases - more recreational. But there are a bunch of tax incentives and rebates for e-bike purchases (on the premise that you do use it as a commuter), which is facilitating additional Ebike purchases. $1.8 million for Colorado for 2024... There are restrictions on who can apply for these rebates, but more interestingly there are limitations on the type of bike you can purchase. A large percentage of the traditional bike manufactures are eliminated by these restrictions (top speed, power of battery, full suspension mtb etc). Again impacting what we see as traditional cycling resellers... https://energyoffice.colorado.gov/ebike-rebates ChrisF 1
BigDL Posted February 1, 2024 Posted February 1, 2024 Stopped in at the Chain Reaction Retail Store yesterday to say cheers to a couple of the guys there that I have dealt with on and off over the years. The store is in "everything must go" mode, although 99% of stuff is gone already. A few components and clothes at 80% discount in a couple of areas and maybe 4 or 5 bikes for sale at 60% discount. Was reminiscing about what a part CRC played in the promotion of mountain biking in Ireland. Sponsorships of trail centres and riders, support for community groups etc. the public used to be able to go up to their warehouse in the old days pre new retail store and there was always someone to fetch items for you to look at, try on etc. Really weird to not have them in Northern Ireland now in any way. When the merger happened, the owners received significant cash as part of the deal, so at least they got the benefit of their work I suppose. Jewbacca, splat and Dexter-morgan 2 1
ChrisF Posted February 11, 2024 Posted February 11, 2024 https://road.cc/content/news/2023-saw-worst-bicycle-sales-uk-1985-306667 IceCreamMan 1
Jewbacca Posted February 11, 2024 Posted February 11, 2024 1 hour ago, ChrisF said: https://road.cc/content/news/2023-saw-worst-bicycle-sales-uk-1985-306667 ssshhhhh It's not real! ChrisF, IceCreamMan and MORNE 3
ChrisF Posted February 11, 2024 Posted February 11, 2024 Jokes aside, our very own economy on this tip of Africa is in a very fragile state .... One of our large partners are now turning over 20% of what they used to .... now in that phase where the lucky ones gets paid on 90 days .... Looking around, many of the large construction companies are in the same boat.... Sure, there are more interest in new projects .... but it takes years for these to turn into cash flow .... IceCreamMan and Danger Dassie 1 1
IceCreamMan Posted February 11, 2024 Posted February 11, 2024 UK is but a relatively small market. but seeing as we on this chestnut again, let’s allay Jewbaccas fears and assure the sky ain’t falling. Stand tall, don’t blink. https://www.cognitivemarketresearch.com/bicycle-market-report
dexterdent Posted February 12, 2024 Posted February 12, 2024 I used CRC/Wiggle quite a few times for things I could not get locally so I was pretty sad when they stopped taking our orders as it was always a smooth and fast delivery process, often under a week. Tried Merlin this time and 3 weeks later I think my package might be at a post office somewhere, so who knows if it still exists. Zebra, ChrisF and betaboy 3
Iwan Kemp Posted February 12, 2024 Posted February 12, 2024 16 hours ago, IceCreamMan said: UK is but a relatively small market. but seeing as we on this chestnut again, let’s allay Jewbaccas fears and assure the sky ain’t falling. Stand tall, don’t blink. https://www.cognitivemarketresearch.com/bicycle-market-report 👆 Forecast 👇Reality Schwalbe, citing a 'tense situation' in industry, consolidates production in Vietnam https://www.bicycleretailer.com/international/2024/01/18/schwalbe-citing-tense-situation-industry-consolidates-production-vietnam Scott Sports next to get multi-million loan from owner [to cover operational costs] https://www.bike-eu.com/46756/scott-sports-next-to-get-multi-million-loan-from-owner?giftCode=GHyB3XTUDjs4YcsNQI06aDsYlf-3N1lqXjM0GThYpZhP6KbZYSOB7RTvVgTaJVop&social=copy Discounting raises Canyon’s sales by 23% but sparks a €2m million loss https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/discounting-raises-canyons-sales-by-23-but-sparks-a-13-million-euro-loss/ BMC applies for government assistance as cycling brands continue to suffer https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/bmc-applies-for-government-assistance-as-cycling-brands-continue-to-suffer/ Zwift co-CEO resigns amid fresh round of workforce layoffs https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/zwift-co-ceo-resigns-amid-fresh-workforce-reduction/ Thule Q4 net sales drop 5%; 2023 sales decline 10% https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2024/02/09/thule-q4-net-sales-drop-5-2023-sales-decline-10 GoPro Q4 and 2023 revenues each decrease 8% https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2024/02/07/gopro-q4-and-2023-revenues-each-decrease-8 MIPS fourth-quarter and yearly net sales down despite bike helmet growth https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2024/02/08/mips-fourth-quarter-and-yearly-net-sales-down-despite-bike-helmet-growth Peloton share price plummets as brand looks to 'stop the bleeding' https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/whats-happening-at-peloton/ I'd like to point out that those are all fairly fresh, actual reports on facts. Add that to all the other links already shared. To quote a wiseman: one cannot argue the data, but one should the interpretation. Next year statisticians will look back at the end of 2023 and 2024 as a year of good sales in terms of numbers and will base forecasts on that, what they will fail to pick up in those numbers is the sheer boatload of bikes sold at cost or even below cost just to move them. That is not the sign of a healthy global or local economy. Also, some brands will see growth due to others failing, again, those numbers won't tell the full story. Covid taught us a valuable lesson: foresight is better than forecast - even more so in a world changing as rapidly as the one we inhabit. peetwindhoek, PhilipV, ChrisF and 3 others 2 4
The Ouzo Posted February 12, 2024 Posted February 12, 2024 23 hours ago, ChrisF said: Jokes aside, our very own economy on this tip of Africa is in a very fragile state .... One of our large partners are now turning over 20% of what they used to .... now in that phase where the lucky ones gets paid on 90 days .... Looking around, many of the large construction companies are in the same boat.... Sure, there are more interest in new projects .... but it takes years for these to turn into cash flow .... My wife works for one of the large international Audit firms, the africa division has just started the process of culling about 30% of their workforce in SA. ChrisF, betaboy, IceCreamMan and 1 other 4
IceCreamMan Posted February 12, 2024 Posted February 12, 2024 20 minutes ago, Iwan Kemp said: 👆 Forecast 👇Reality Schwalbe, citing a 'tense situation' in industry, consolidates production in Vietnam https://www.bicycleretailer.com/international/2024/01/18/schwalbe-citing-tense-situation-industry-consolidates-production-vietnam Scott Sports next to get multi-million loan from owner [to cover operational costs] https://www.bike-eu.com/46756/scott-sports-next-to-get-multi-million-loan-from-owner?giftCode=GHyB3XTUDjs4YcsNQI06aDsYlf-3N1lqXjM0GThYpZhP6KbZYSOB7RTvVgTaJVop&social=copy Discounting raises Canyon’s sales by 23% but sparks a €2m million loss https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/discounting-raises-canyons-sales-by-23-but-sparks-a-13-million-euro-loss/ BMC applies for government assistance as cycling brands continue to suffer https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/bmc-applies-for-government-assistance-as-cycling-brands-continue-to-suffer/ Zwift co-CEO resigns amid fresh round of workforce layoffs https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/zwift-co-ceo-resigns-amid-fresh-workforce-reduction/ Thule Q4 net sales drop 5%; 2023 sales decline 10% https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2024/02/09/thule-q4-net-sales-drop-5-2023-sales-decline-10 GoPro Q4 and 2023 revenues each decrease 8% https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2024/02/07/gopro-q4-and-2023-revenues-each-decrease-8 MIPS fourth-quarter and yearly net sales down despite bike helmet growth https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2024/02/08/mips-fourth-quarter-and-yearly-net-sales-down-despite-bike-helmet-growth Peloton share price plummets as brand looks to 'stop the bleeding' https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/whats-happening-at-peloton/ I'd like to point out that those are all fairly fresh, actual reports on facts. Add that to all the other links already shared. To quote a wiseman: one cannot argue the data, but one should the interpretation. Next year statisticians will look back at the end of 2023 and 2024 as a year of good sales in terms of numbers and will base forecasts on that, what they will fail to pick up in those numbers is the sheer boatload of bikes sold at cost or even below cost just to move them. That is not the sign of a healthy global or local economy. Also, some brands will see growth due to others failing, again, those numbers won't tell the full story. Covid taught us a valuable lesson: foresight is better than forecast - even more so in a world changing as rapidly as the one we inhabit. The rush during covid caused many problems for sure. the bicycle manufacture industry is going nowhere. the article that kicked off this round of debate painted a picture of woe for the uK. Yet we bought 1.5 million bicycles here in the last year. The bicycle industry is dead, long live the bicycle industry.
IceCreamMan Posted February 12, 2024 Posted February 12, 2024 23 hours ago, ChrisF said: Jokes aside, our very own economy on this tip of Africa is in a very fragile state .... One of our large partners are now turning over 20% of what they used to .... now in that phase where the lucky ones gets paid on 90 days .... Looking around, many of the large construction companies are in the same boat.... Sure, there are more interest in new projects .... but it takes years for these to turn into cash flow .... Perfect storm. Money is tight, load shedding, corruption, incompetent politicians, radical motives. of trump wins it’s going to get worse for za I reckon. but that’s another thread. ChrisF 1
Iwan Kemp Posted February 12, 2024 Posted February 12, 2024 2 minutes ago, IceCreamMan said: ... the bicycle manufacture industry is going nowhere. the article that kicked off this round of debate painted a picture of woe for the uK. Yet we bought 1.5 million bicycles here in the last year. The bicycle industry is dead, long live the bicycle industry. I'm certainly not saying it is dead or going anywhere. But that it is not healthy, and that many, many, many brands and very talented people will leave this industry is a fact. As many already have. Buying 1.5 million bikes where no one makes money does not fit the world we live in. Still doesn't mean "the bicycle industry is dead", but between that and arguing that it is okay lies a VERY deep canyon. ChrisF, BigDL, Jewbacca and 2 others 5
Anthem24 Posted February 12, 2024 Posted February 12, 2024 Off-topic, but I've been wondering what the ripple effect might be of the large tax bill and legal fees that Silverback, Omnico and Cytek have had after losing their appeal to SARS in the Supreme Court in October. Media summary here: https://www.supremecourtofappeal.org.za/images/SCA-128MS.pdf and full judgement here: https://www.supremecourtofappeal.org.za/index.php/component/jdownloads/send/48-judgment-2023/4093-silverback-technologies-cc-others-v-commissioner-south-african-revenue-service-301-2022-2023-zasca-128-09-october-2023?Itemid=0 betaboy 1
IceCreamMan Posted February 12, 2024 Posted February 12, 2024 4 hours ago, Iwan Kemp said: I'm certainly not saying it is dead or going anywhere. But that it is not healthy, and that many, many, many brands and very talented people will leave this industry is a fact. As many already have. Buying 1.5 million bikes where no one makes money does not fit the world we live in. Still doesn't mean "the bicycle industry is dead", but between that and arguing that it is okay lies a VERY deep canyon. Pun intended no doubt.
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