[Event] 2017 Cape Town Cycle Tour - Argus

[FootballingCyclist]

Seeming as you guys have already started with the weather predictions, I may as well ask whats the goodie bag like?

Water bottle

Magazines(all old, nothing to do with cycling)

Flyers

A healthy muesli bar maybe(Natures Valley)

Sachet of porridge

 

These are my guesses.. Anyone care to add??

[carbon29er]

What will my chance be of doing a sub 3 if I start in 1 M group?

Slim to none.

We are the 3:15 to 3:30 group.

Too true, Wannbe.

 

There is very little appreciation of exactly how hard it is to do a sub 3, even seeded in B, C or D. It's not the pace down the Blue Route or along Main Road to Simon's Town that determines the difference between 2:59:59 and 3:00:01 or say 3:05.

 

The surge at the top of Smits, the pace past Cape Point, the surge at the 4 ways at Slangkop, the pace through the toll gantry at Noordhoek. Miss any one of those and you are not going to see 2 in front of your time. And when I say it's a surge, the difference in pace in any of the 4 points I mention is massive for the sub 3 crowd and the 3:05 crowd.

 

Ride Suikerbossie in more than 7 minutes and you've burnt the toast.  That is 1.1 km at an average of 7% and 1km at an average of 5%. After 2:35 on the bike already.

 

Last year a record 886 riders did a sub 3 in perfect conditions. Another 384 took another 5 minutes and another 503 took 5 minutes more. As many riders took 10 minutes extra as did a sub 3. Not every one of those 887 riders were dropped at some stage in the race but I would say at least 95% of them were. Don't get dropped anywhere to have a chance even if in B, C or D. In 1M you will be in the wind the whole route. Read above about Suikerbossie.

 

So Wannabe is totally accurate when he says the chances from 1M are about the same as Zuma resigning soon. The seeding is roughly accurate and you will be (edit stating) starting with riders who can do a 3:15 to 3:30 but cannot sustain the pace at the required level where it matters. And that's not on the flats or downhill sections.

 

But as it's sport and we love the unpredictable, go ahead and prove my analyses wrong.

 

Edit: spelling

 

Edited February 28, 2017 by carbon29er

[carbon29er]

Morning all....first time CTCT   ..... will 1G get close to 3hours? Assuming weather plays it's part?

Read post 1010 above.

 

Answer is no. Unless you can ITT 109km at an average speed of 36.34kph. On a road bike.

[Skubarra]

Read post 1010 above.

 

Answer is no. Unless you can ITT 109km at an average speed of 36.34kph. On a road bike.

 

Agree, unless you can do above, sub-3 Argus is determined by 2 things A) Being seeded in a bunch with sub-3 riders and B) not getting dropped from that bunch (at least until Suikerbossie)

 

For the most part it is not "Eye of the Tiger" stuff & studying time-splits & strategising are useless.

[Mamil]

I wonder what the faster riders in group 3E (where I start) will be doing? I would be ecstatic if I could manage a 3:30 Argus but I think 3:40 may be more realistic. Anyone else in 3E?

 

 

Agree, unless you can do above, sub-3 Argus is determined by 2 things A) Being seeded in a bunch with sub-3 riders and B) not getting dropped from that bunch (at least until Suikerbossie)

 

For the most part it is not "Eye of the Tiger" stuff & studying time-splits & strategising are useless.

[Skubarra]

I wonder what the faster riders in group 3E (where I start) will be doing? I would be ecstatic if I could manage a 3:30 Argus but I think 3:40 may be more realistic. Anyone else in 3E?

 

Last year's results on Racetec should give you a good indication of what the group can achieve in good conditions?

[Long Wheel Base]

Too true, Wannbe.

 

There is very little appreciation of exactly how hard it is to do a sub 3, even seeded in B, C or D. It's not the pace down the Blue Route or along Main Road to Simon's Town that determines the difference between 2:59:59 and 3:00:01 or say 3:05.

 

The surge at the top of Smits, the pace past Cape Point, the surge at the 4 ways at Slangkop, the pace through the toll gantry at Noordhoek. Miss any one of those and you are not going to see 2 in front of your time. And when I say it's a surge, the difference in pace in any of the 4 points I mention is massive for the sub 3 crowd and the 3:05 crowd.

 

Ride Suikerbossie in more than 7 minutes and you've burnt the toast.  That is 1.1 km at an average of 7% and 1km at an average of 5%. After 2:35 on the bike already.

 

Last year a record 886 riders did a sub 3 in perfect conditions. Another 384 took another 5 minutes and another 503 took 5 minutes more. As many riders took 10 minutes extra as did a sub 3. Not every one of those 887 riders were dropped at some stage in the race but I would say at least 95% of them were. Don't get dropped anywhere to have a chance even if in B, C or D. In 1M you will be in the wind the whole route. Read above about Suikerbossie.

 

So Wannabe is totally accurate when he says the chances from 1M are about the same as Zuma resigning soon. The seeding is roughly accurate and you will be (edit stating) starting with riders who can do a 3:15 to 3:30 but cannot sustain the pace at the required level where it matters. And that's not on the flats or downhill sections.

 

But as it's sport and we love the unpredictable, go ahead and prove my analyses wrong.

 

Edit: spelling

 

You have hit the nail so sweetly that the chance of proving you wrong is also about the same as zuma resigning soon.

[Donovan Le Cok]

City to smooth road for cyclists in Kalk Bay

 

The City of Cape Town’s transport and urban development authority (TDA) will start the final asphalt surfacing of a section of Main Road in Kalk Bay in anticipation of the internationally acclaimed Cape Town Cycle Tour.

 

http://www.iol.co.za/capetimes/news/city-to-smooth-road-for-cyclists-in-kalk-bay-7939860

 

 

Date is wrong.

['Dale]

Capture.JPG

 

Date is wrong.

 

 

Cool signature!

 

[carbon29er]

Capture.JPG

 

Date is wrong.

That's IOL for you. Not even worth using to wipe your arse with if you run out of two ply.

[carbon29er]

I wonder what the faster riders in group 3E (where I start) will be doing? I would be ecstatic if I could manage a 3:30 Argus but I think 3:40 may be more realistic. Anyone else in 3E?

About 200 other riders. You won't be alone.

[HBO]

Too true, Wannbe.

 

There is very little appreciation of exactly how hard it is to do a sub 3, even seeded in B, C or D. It's not the pace down the Blue Route or along Main Road to Simon's Town that determines the difference between 2:59:59 and 3:00:01 or say 3:05.

 

The surge at the top of Smits, the pace past Cape Point, the surge at the 4 ways at Slangkop, the pace through the toll gantry at Noordhoek. Miss any one of those and you are not going to see 2 in front of your time. And when I say it's a surge, the difference in pace in any of the 4 points I mention is massive for the sub 3 crowd and the 3:05 crowd.

 

Ride Suikerbossie in more than 7 minutes and you've burnt the toast.  That is 1.1 km at an average of 7% and 1km at an average of 5%. After 2:35 on the bike already.

 

Last year a record 886 riders did a sub 3 in perfect conditions. Another 384 took another 5 minutes and another 503 took 5 minutes more. As many riders took 10 minutes extra as did a sub 3. Not every one of those 887 riders were dropped at some stage in the race but I would say at least 95% of them were. Don't get dropped anywhere to have a chance even if in B, C or D. In 1M you will be in the wind the whole route. Read above about Suikerbossie.

 

So Wannabe is totally accurate when he says the chances from 1M are about the same as Zuma resigning soon. The seeding is roughly accurate and you will be (edit stating) starting with riders who can do a 3:15 to 3:30 but cannot sustain the pace at the required level where it matters. And that's not on the flats or downhill sections.

 

But as it's sport and we love the unpredictable, go ahead and prove my analyses wrong.

 

Edit: spelling

 

exactly, I was in the front part of D bunch up until close to the top of smitswinkel - I think about 300 meter- when my chain dropped. The chain was stuck and I stuggle to get it back on. I've lost the whole group and ride the majority of that section between smits and scarborrough on my own. I've finished in 3h03. I'm pretty sure that I would have been able to stick with the bunch at least until the very top of Chappies and would have made my sub 3.

[Cacey]

Too true, Wannbe.

 

There is very little appreciation of exactly how hard it is to do a sub 3, even seeded in B, C or D. It's not the pace down the Blue Route or along Main Road to Simon's Town that determines the difference between 2:59:59 and 3:00:01 or say 3:05.

 

The surge at the top of Smits, the pace past Cape Point, the surge at the 4 ways at Slangkop, the pace through the toll gantry at Noordhoek. Miss any one of those and you are not going to see 2 in front of your time. And when I say it's a surge, the difference in pace in any of the 4 points I mention is massive for the sub 3 crowd and the 3:05 crowd.

 

Ride Suikerbossie in more than 7 minutes and you've burnt the toast.  That is 1.1 km at an average of 7% and 1km at an average of 5%. After 2:35 on the bike already.

 

Last year a record 886 riders did a sub 3 in perfect conditions. Another 384 took another 5 minutes and another 503 took 5 minutes more. As many riders took 10 minutes extra as did a sub 3. Not every one of those 887 riders were dropped at some stage in the race but I would say at least 95% of them were. Don't get dropped anywhere to have a chance even if in B, C or D. In 1M you will be in the wind the whole route. Read above about Suikerbossie.

 

So Wannabe is totally accurate when he says the chances from 1M are about the same as Zuma resigning soon. The seeding is roughly accurate and you will be (edit stating) starting with riders who can do a 3:15 to 3:30 but cannot sustain the pace at the required level where it matters. And that's not on the flats or downhill sections.

 

But as it's sport and we love the unpredictable, go ahead and prove my analyses wrong.

 

Edit: spelling

 

Damm - Started in 2D last year and did a 3:14 and thought that seeing that I'm in way better shape and managed to take 18 mins off my time for the 99er this year it might just be possible.  Will be my second CTCT and I will still give it a solid go.  Anyone out there also in 1M that would like to give it serious horns and try?

[Mamil]

That's a brilliant idea Skubarra - a very instructive exercise - 3:30 if things go very well - 3:40-3:45 if it's an average day. Thanks for that.

Last year's results on Racetec should give you a good indication of what the group can achieve in good conditions?

 

About 200 other riders. You won't be alone.

 

You a funny guy Carbon - actually 588 others in last year's 3E.

[Nibali]

Damm - Started in 2D last year and did a 3:14 and thought that seeing that I'm in way better shape and managed to take 18 mins off my time for the 99er this year it might just be possible.  Will be my second CTCT and I will still give it a solid go.  Anyone out there also in 1M that would like to give it serious horns and try?

 

Remember the weather was good last year. Go check 2014 for a better idea of what times people ride in normal Argus conditions (and then 2009 to see what happens when the wind really blows).

[JohanC]

Any other guys here attempting a sub 3 on the MTB?