Is the 2nd hand market dead?

[Shebeen]

1 hour ago, Jewbacca said:

I am so confused.

#metoo

 

1 hour ago, Jewbacca said:

Jaco is also definitely trolling everyone with his finding insult in everything. Which is pure comedy gold after accusing Shebeen of being an internet troll.

 

half right, it was our mtbrider supply/demand expert that called me all those names. Jacko called me a bully, I called him nothing.

[The Ouzo]

Someone is either very butt hurt that he cant get rid of stock he paid to much for, or we have a troll.

But this thread has made it to friday, so lets have some fun.

[Dirkitech]

I came here to read opinions on whether forum users believe the 2nd hand market to be stronger or weaker as a buyer.
I left with my daily dose of people fighting with each other and not sticking to the topic.
As for my input, I just repaired my bike and called it a day. Happy Friday everyone🚴‍♀️⏪

[Shebeen]

11 hours ago, MTBRIDER1234 said:

I didn't say I am an expert by any means, but I would like to think I know a bit more than the average Joe, simply because I have studied it. 

Maybe I was wrong to say it was a steal, I think it would have been better to say they are good value in my opinion.

I believe that some bikes are going for a steal now compared to what they would have sold to a while ago. I realize this is what the market thinks they are worth, but in my eyes, it is a good price for the bike you get relative to how it was even up to 6 months or so ago.

For example, when someone like Robert Kiyosaki buys property in a depressed market with the intention to rent it out, then resell it when the market has recovered, he could sell it for far more than he acquired it for. Now while this is relative to what the market thinks it is worth, and is prepared to pay, most people will say that he got a very good deal on the property when the market was in a bad shape, because he was able to make so much money when he then sold it on.

Or if I was to buy a Spez epic for 80k when the market was low, but it would have gone for 120k in a healthy market, then in my opinion, it is a steal, no matter what the market says. If your mate goes and buys a 2nd hand WRX STI for 100k in a shitty market when nobody else had the money to buy it, but it would normally be worth 3-400k, so the seller was forced to take a lower rate, you wouldn't say to him: "wow you got a really market value deal boet", no, you would say: "that was a bargain"

I may have come on a bit strong (I think we all did to some extent), or used terms that oversimplified things, but at the end of the day, I am not an expert, and I doubt anyone else here is. We all come here because we want to share the stoke for riding bikes, and life is too short to get into an online fight with someone you have never met, and will probably never meet.

AWESOME. now we are having a high level discussion! For the record it would have made more sense if I called you an expert in comic sans, but admin took that away.

 

Your example in bold is good. The distinction needs to be made that an anecdotal purchase for  a bargain price (25% of the sticker price is way below even bargain definition but anyway) does not really change the market value. If the whole drifting club rocks up in different colours of Scooby WRX STI that they bought after raising money by trading in their UNO fires on webuy cars then the market would have shifted. This is unlikely to happen, as there are so many people trading and monitoring markets these days that you won't get such a large arbitrage.

[Shebeen]

6 minutes ago, Dirkitech said:

I came here to read opinions on whether forum users believe the 2nd hand market to be stronger or weaker as a buyer.
I left with my daily dose of people fighting with each other and not sticking to the topic.
As for my input, I just repaired my bike and called it a day. Happy Friday everyone🚴‍♀️⏪

good point.  I assume the topic heading means that the sales volume has fallen flat, but can't get the OP to proffer an opinion on that.

 

It has actually been very much on topic though, apart from the bits about what is considered a debate/argument/trolling/bullying. If you look hard enough you can find some hard data summary from admin too.

 

The bargain N+1 bike I saw has converted to SOLD since this started too, saved me some grumpy nights on the couch.

[NotSoBigBen]

3 minutes ago, Shebeen said:

AWESOME. now we are having a high level discussion! For the record it would have made more sense if I called you an expert in comic sans, but admin took that away.

 

Your example in bold is good. The distinction needs to be made that an anecdotal purchase for  a bargain price (25% of the sticker price is way below even bargain definition but anyway) does not really change the market value. If the whole drifting club rocks up in different colours of Scooby WRX STI that they bought after raising money by trading in their UNO fires on webuy cars then the market would have shifted. This is unlikely to happen, as there are so many people trading and monitoring markets these days that you won't get such a large arbitrage.

Quickly checks on Google what's 'arbitrage' 😜

[throttles]

4 minutes ago, Dirkitech said:

I came here to read opinions on whether forum users believe the 2nd hand market to be stronger or weaker as a buyer.
I left with my daily dose of people fighting with each other and not sticking to the topic.
As for my input, I just repaired my bike and called it a day. Happy Friday everyone🚴‍♀️⏪

I have a few bikes, i tend to buy and sell to support my cycling passion and ofcorse upgrade. Not that i'm anything close to a Pro or anything but just because i like the sport and having nice things and buy what i can afford.

I'm currently selling a bike that 6 months ago i would get R40/50k more for as it was N. It is now N-1 and as a result is worth much less. I'm selling it for what the components are worth and there is interest but people don't have money Disposable income.

The bike i want has been on the showroom floor for almost 2 months, not because they holding it for me but because nobody is buying it.

So in short sale in both new and 2nd hand has slowed down, but if you look at the road bike ads there is a healthy turnover of 2nd hand high specced bikes if they were at "reasonable" prices. Remember reasonable is different from person to person, so does budget and disposable income.

If you're the buyer in the market it's a great time, but you need to be fast. the good deals/steal disappear fast.

[Graham S]

Well I have THE most sicentific data possible on the state of the second hand market over the last year and a bit. 😉

Let me elaborate. 

When I was in the market for a new bike, but had to wait till bonus time (2023) I had  A LOT of potential bikes loaded up in my wishlist. 
 

Bikes from R20k up to R60K, a very large bracket (But specifically, Large/ XL, Dual Sus, 29/27,5, Enduro stye bikes).

Last year, every single bike in my wishlist was sold within 3-8days, regardless of the price. I had to constantly find new bikes to add. Which wasnt hard since people were selling like crazy as well. 

Now this year, as bonus month drew nearer. The bikes I had in my wishlist were sitting......and sitting....

The bike I eventually bought had sat on my wishlist for about 2 months. I did then get it for R7000 under asking price. 

BUT, i think there were some factors that may have played into this "bargain" 

The bike is an XL. Which sits outside of the general size most buyers are after and its a 27.5" which I think is not what the cool kids are after. 

Any way, my wishlist still has items in it, not just bikes, but components and clothing etc, they have generally been sitting for AT LEAST 1-2 weeks now, often times more. 

So from this highly scientific and accurate data you can clearly see that the market is slowing. 

Next time we need some mroe data ill open my whishlist and report back 😊

[Jacko18]

37 minutes ago, Shebeen said:

good point.  I assume the topic heading means that the sales volume has fallen flat, but can't get the OP to proffer an opinion on that.

 

It has actually been very much on topic though, apart from the bits about what is considered a debate/argument/trolling/bullying. If you look hard enough you can find some hard data summary from admin too.

 

The bargain N+1 bike I saw has converted to SOLD since this started too, saved me some grumpy nights on the couch.

You can't get the OP to offer YOU one.  Because you are rude and are a bully.  

[Jacko18]

53 minutes ago, The Ouzo said:

Someone is either very butt hurt that he cant get rid of stock he paid to much for, or we have a troll.

But this thread has made it to friday, so lets have some fun.

Glad you are entertained!! Happy Friday!

[Koos Likkewaan 2]

So lets see if I understand all of this (damn, it was a lot of reading)

I need to offload a couple of bikes for various reason, but now is not the best time if I do not want to loose a lot of money and it might not be the right time going forward either.

 

[Shebeen]

I committed to taking back unconditionally any insults I might have made to @Jacko18 in this thread. He pointed out that he felt insulted by this post on my pg2 replied to him.

On 5/10/2023 at 12:09 PM, Shebeen said:

Ok, so you're an armchair economist then?

I don't consider that an insult, if anything an opening he was welcome to respond to. As he's got 5 years experience as a reseller it's an opening to bring his perspective.

He has also said I am bullying him. I don't feel like that is the case either. So off to the BH rules to check myself.

I feel I have not transgressed these boundaries, he is welcome to REPORT me and let admin decide.

 

This is an interesting topic for anyone who owns a bike or is in the market for buying/selling one. I will stick to commenting on that part of the debate.

 

 

 

 

[Shebeen]

23 minutes ago, Koos Likkewaan 2 said:

So lets see if I understand all of this (damn, it was a lot of reading)

I need to offload a couple of bikes for various reason, but now is not the best time if I do not want to loose a lot of money and it might not be the right time going forward either.

 

NO! It depends. some people say that 2nd hand bikes are going for crazy money, so if you believe them then you will get top $ right now. 

going fwd, new bikes are getting pricier, the R/$ is going to push it up further. So in essence more people looking for a bike could then be thinking about better value in the 2nd hand market (which means 2nd hand pricing goes up too). BUT this is all hard to predict, it roughly depends on 

a)supply - how many bikes did all the distributors order for the season? if they are short of cashflow and sitting on loads of stock they will need to discount.

b)demand - do people want to buy bikes? The middle class have got serious cashflow pressures and if it's a luxury item they will just keep riding what they have. 

(imho)

 

edit: one more factor. you might find a fair proportion of well heeled people taking the jump and emigrating. They will mainly sell their bikes off at a huge discount due to hassle factor of handling all the stuff they're shifting. 

Edited May 12, 2023 by Shebeen

[Brawler]

The answer to all expensive bike problems is.. get an aggressive HT.

[The Ouzo]

10 minutes ago, Shebeen said:

NO! It depends. some people say that 2nd hand bikes are going for crazy money, so if you believe them then you will get top $ right now. 

going fwd, new bikes are getting pricier, the R/$ is going to push it up further. So in essence more people looking for a bike could then be thinking about better value in the 2nd hand market (which means 2nd hand pricing goes up too). BUT this is all hard to predict, it roughly depends on 

a)supply - how many bikes did all the distributors order for the season? if they are short of cashflow and sitting on loads of stock they will need to discount.

b)demand - do people want to buy bikes? The middle class have got serious cashflow pressures and if it's a luxury item they will just keep riding what they have. 

(imho)

 

edit: one more factor. you might find a fair proportion of well heeled people taking the jump and emigrating. They will mainly sell their bikes off at a huge discount due to hassle factor of handling all the stuff they're shifting. 

My expert arm chair economist  prediction.

On the new side you will see a wide divide between the lower end and higher end bikes. Mid to lower end stuff will be heavily discounted to move stock. This is the segment where people are suffering the most under the current economic climate. The higher end bikes will attract discount, but not as aggressively as at this end of the market people either have the disposable income or they finance.

How this translates to used market.

Initially your mid to lower end stuff will drop in price, the good stuff will be snapped up, for a while the "trade - ins" from the new bike market will filter through, but as prices fall these will stop as they will rather be kept as spare bikes or hand me downs.

Once the current stock of new bikes is depleted and the newer stuff comes in at inflated R/$ exchange, the discounts will stop, the demand for used bikes will increase and this will drive up the prices again. 

This entire process will take some time, dont expect used prices to start going up again for another 24 - 36 months.

[El Duderino]

I came here for an argument, and all I got was some grade A whining: 

 

That's not an argument, it's just a contradiction: